BeastFromTheEast Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 attachment=52167:ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 for shizzles and giggles I just looked at the jma... at 192 it has a pocket of -25 850s from about LAF to Chicago to GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 for shizzles and giggles I just looked at the jma...at 192 it has a pocket of -25 850s from about LAF to Chicago to GRR. only you would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Hope the AO and NAO tanks.. should bode well for ice making here and snow chances for LAF and Toronto $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 only you would. im so ashamed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I don't think it's unusual for there to be some tension amongst members considering how brutal this winter has been so far. However, all things taken into consideration, I don't think most have been handling it that badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 DTX sticking to its guns. Pattern Change coming. Models poor in the long range. Significant shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z EURO ensemble mean at 240. Seems to jibe with the GEFS as that's the furthest south I've seen the PV being progged all winter. Actually, PNA/EPO/NAO all look unfavorable in that map, which may explain the fluidity Joe mentioned. As the PV shifts slightly north and east things could get warm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 DTX sticking to its guns. Pattern Change coming. Models poor in the long range. Significant shift. Models are likely having a hard time comprehending all these changes going on. Staying optimistic that after the 12th the month will be more typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 How the phuck is it optimistic stating facts? Actually its 6, not 5, and no way in hell it stays that way til Feb. Its January ****ing 5th for christs sake. MJO is going where we want it to, strat warming event just occurred, and all models show a much colder longer range than weve seen so far this winter. Places north of I80 may actually benefit BEFORE a full blown pattern change to -AO/-NAO. Too much can suppress a lot of stuff to the south. I would be fine with suppression for a bit as long as theres a snowcover present, but naturally that will be simply more ammo for an absolute barrage of complaints of "cold and dry". It doesnt really matter though, because every thread has turned into the same crap on here. Winter is over The first step is denial ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 ^ Referring to Beast's post: Looking better for the Lakes and Northern Plains regarding winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Winter is over The first step is denial ... Don't troll the threads please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Don't troll the threads please. That's like asking the sun not to shine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Let's try to get back on subject with reasonable discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=77373&source=0 DTX has a nice write-up on the likely pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 The DTX Pattern Write Up... Winter on the Way? Pattern Change Discussion The general circulation of the northern hemisphere is in the very beginning stages of undergoing a change from what has been the normal for roughly the first half of the 2011-2012 winter season. This change will primarily be felt after January 15th in Southeast Michigan, as temperature and precipitation patterns return to a more characteristic winter state. The origin of this pattern change is a strong jet in the western Pacific that will send a series of strong waves toward North America (Figure 1). One such wave has the potential to result in a storm system over the east-central United States in the January 11-12 period. Whether or not our area is impacted by this potential system is independent of the pattern change itself. The reason is because another strong low over the east-central Pacific will aggressively build ridging into Alaska around the same time period, thereby disrupting/displacing the Alaskan polar vortex, which been a dominant feature of the general circulation so far this winter. That is not to say that the mid-week (Jan 11-12) system is not important in terms of the pattern evolution, regardless of whether it affects our area. After it lifts out of the United States, it will likely contribute in some fashion to a newly forming polar vortex over Hudson Bay/Eastern Canada during the latter half of January Confidence in this change toward a more winter-like pattern as a result of the strong west Pacific jet is high. In addition, recent long range model runs have occasionally hinted at additional possibilities unfolding once the change in the pattern is underway, although confidence in these possibilities is considerably lower. For example, as the midweek energy lifts into northern Canada late in the week, downstream ridge amplification may reinforce the effects of a wave break in the high latitudes of the north Atlantic, resulting in a decline of the well-known NAO index from its persistently positive state to one that is neutral or negative. A higher-confidence possibility, however, is that an anticyclonic wave break in the east-central Pacific will create potential for upstream blocking that may add some stability to the new pattern. In summary, interests in southeast Michigan can expect the pattern beyond January 15th to be winter-like, a stark contrast from most of the season so far. That is to say that temperatures will be most likely near-to-below normal (instead of near to above normal as they have been recently) along with the regular chances for snow that residents of southeast Michigan are accustomed to. Whether or not the new pattern develops real staying power will at least partially depend on how the aforementioned factors above (e.g. blocking potential) evolve. Nonetheless, confidence that the second half of January will average much cooler in our area and with more snowfall than the first half is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Based on that write up Ill be cheering for a stronger system come mid-next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 looking at the latest guidance i wouldnt hold my breath on a major storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 My psychic is telling me the pattern will change January 21st at 1:55AM. I don't know what it means, but I am telling you what she told me. You should demand a refund. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 You should demand a refund. nice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 00z GFS and 00Z canadian at 144 hours, and 12z European from this morning at the closest available time. The models still have work to do: 00z GFS @ 144 00z Canadian @ 144 12 European at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The 00z GFS is ugly as hell. Downslopoing winds have been a staple this winter so far. That map is ugly. And is a big reason why locally we recently had a high of 34F with 850s around -15 to -16C that afternoon. Clearly the NE may far much better with cold air coming off that snow field. Every day that passes the sun get's stronger. Even the west looks pretty bare with snow. I don't know what normal is but it's pretty obvious this isn't it. For the month we are now also today was 70/48/59 = +27F for the day. Yeah, that is almost 30F mean above normal. The high was 40F above normal. This puts the month at +10.4F now. I am pretty surprised it has started this warm. The next 5 days will average about 12-13F above normal means with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s maybe mid 50s one day. lows above freezing until the 12th. The current average is 42.5F which is 3rd warmest on record in STL. This will be maintained threw the 11th and likely raised to around 44F. After that it will get colder, but it is possible this will affect the Lakes and East much more than our area. It is probably in the 95% or higher probability based on forecast accuracy and records threw only 6 days that January will be above average. There just isn't the snow cover north of us to change that, even if the pattern changed. This is millions of square miles of surface albedo change from this time last year and even more so than 2009. I wonder if there is any data out there showing snow cover or snow depth anomalies vs the state of the Climate Indicies. I still think the Lakes and East will see some snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Let me correct that./ I said the high was 40F above normal. I mean't 30F. the avg is 40F the high was 70F. Bad Math on that one, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 00z European at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The 00z GFS is ugly as hell. Downslopoing winds have been a staple this winter so far. That map is ugly. And is a big reason why locally we recently had a high of 34F with 850s around -15 to -16C that afternoon. Clearly the NE may far much better with cold air coming off that snow field. Every day that passes the sun get's stronger. Even the west looks pretty bare with snow. I don't know what normal is but it's pretty obvious this isn't it. For the month we are now also today was 70/48/59 = +27F for the day. Yeah, that is almost 30F mean above normal. The high was 40F above normal. This puts the month at +10.4F now. I am pretty surprised it has started this warm. The next 5 days will average about 12-13F above normal means with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s maybe mid 50s one day. lows above freezing until the 12th. The current average is 42.5F which is 3rd warmest on record in STL. This will be maintained threw the 11th and likely raised to around 44F. After that it will get colder, but it is possible this will affect the Lakes and East much more than our area. It is probably in the 95% or higher probability based on forecast accuracy and records threw only 6 days that January will be above average. There just isn't the snow cover north of us to change that, even if the pattern changed. This is millions of square miles of surface albedo change from this time last year and even more so than 2009. I wonder if there is any data out there showing snow cover or snow depth anomalies vs the state of the Climate Indicies. I still think the Lakes and East will see some snow this year. That map isn't normal by a long shot. In January you would expect to see the snow cover down to I-70/ Ohio River respectively. With some bare areas now and then in January in the front range areas. This weather pattern will have consequences of some sort if it doesn't do a flip pretty soon. Spring drought? maybe. Lost tourism income for ski towns etc, already happening. Agricultural impacts - possibly. Water supplies/reservoir impacts in the west? maybe. It was 26° above normal today (6th) here! Still 40° at 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Wow reading this thread makes me wonder if its March 1st and it hasn't snowed a flake yet. I mean I am not trying to be an optimist or pessimist because personally I care only about active weather. If it were storming right now I would be a happy man. However the point I am making is that some here change their mind about what will happen going forth every 20 seconds. Not everyone of your scatterbrained thoughts needs to be posted. Also some are just purely trolling and should stop. No one cares how much snow Wisconsin/Ohio/Michigan/Illinois/Indiana get compared to each other. The only thing anyone should care about is how much snow is in their own backyard unless they like tracking numbers for the sake of tracking them. Using that stuff as trolling material is listless and pointless. We are all here to enjoy weather maybe some here need to realize that quickly instead of being clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Wow reading this thread makes me wonder if its March 1st and it hasn't snowed a flake yet. I mean I am not trying to be an optimist or pessimist because personally I care only about active weather. If it were storming right now I would be a happy man. However the point I am making is that some here change their mind about what will happen going forth every 20 seconds. Not everyone of your scatterbrained thoughts needs to be posted. Also some are just purely trolling and should stop. No one cares how much snow Wisconsin/Ohio/Michigan/Illinois/Indiana get compared to each other. The only thing anyone should care about is how much snow is in their own backyard unless they like tracking numbers for the sake of tracking them. Using that stuff as trolling material is listless and pointless. We are all here to enjoy weather maybe some here need to realize that quickly instead of being clowns. ^ This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Whoa.. Never seen Josh rant like that before.. He is probably halfway to a confessional box. I did goad him a tad. It was a bit refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Wow reading this thread makes me wonder if its March 1st and it hasn't snowed a flake yet. I mean I am not trying to be an optimist or pessimist because personally I care only about active weather. If it were storming right now I would be a happy man. However the point I am making is that some here change their mind about what will happen going forth every 20 seconds. Not everyone of your scatterbrained thoughts needs to be posted. Also some are just purely trolling and should stop. No one cares how much snow Wisconsin/Ohio/Michigan/Illinois/Indiana get compared to each other. The only thing anyone should care about is how much snow is in their own backyard unless they like tracking numbers for the sake of tracking them. Using that stuff as trolling material is listless and pointless. We are all here to enjoy weather maybe some here need to realize that quickly instead of being clowns. Ok so no one post anything unless it is a dead serious post because you are pissing off stebo. Remember because stebo doesn't it means you don't care! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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