Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Generally average to above average, with any sig torch/cold events being limited to a few days. I have 12hr increments at 500/700/850/surface through 762hrs. Most sig/long lasting cold shot is Jan. 16-20th. Looks like a -PNA signal in early Feb. I see. I was under the impression that they only showed 1 week intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 1998 was an El Niño but man does this remind me so much of that winter. Just how everything is going. I'm gonna pull some plots an compare the 2 latter tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'd call today a torch and there's no question the overall pattern has been very mild. There's a lot of room between best/worst pattern ever...the one we're in is clearly closer to worst than best if you like winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Josh man are you optimistic! Just for me.... please belt out a explicative in disgust! I'm at 15 inches on the year and I'm sick. You have 5 inches!!! 5!!!! and it might stay that way till February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'd call today a torch and there's no question the overall pattern has been very mild. There's a lot of room between best/worst pattern ever...the one we're in is clearly closer to worst than best if you like winter weather. I'm sitting at 1" with the prime snow time almost gone....that 9" record is looking more in reach everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have formed a solid unwavering opinion on seasonal predictions. El nino or La nina mean ZIPO! The pattern is a consequence of random occurrence and nothing more. I really think the pacific waters have little effect on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well maybe this will jinx the whole thing for the good. But I won't mind getting an early start to gardening this year. Since the kid graduated last year, going to spend this spring and summer doing some serious gardening. Would love to get started sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 you're right, over 20 degrees above average is no big thing. excuse me? Where did I say that? I simply stated a fact. When the word torch started on the weather boards, it was for extremely warm days the likes of which are rarely seen. It is no longer that, its applied to practically anything more than a few degrees above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'd call today a torch and there's no question the overall pattern has been very mild. There's a lot of room between best/worst pattern ever...the one we're in is clearly closer to worst than best if you like winter weather. Yes, today is full on torch! Nearly 60F, but it does feel very nice outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well if the cold shots remain highly progressive and transient and the seasonal trends of the northern stream coming late the party... Yea below snow is possible. But breaking the 9 inch mark/record. Wow. I'm doubtful that will happen but at this point you might as well cheer that record breaker on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm sitting at 1" with the prime snow time almost gone....that 9" record is looking more in reach everyday. A lot can happen between now and the end of winter. I wouldn't give that record much consideration until February but to each his own. It would be nice to get a widespread snow event. I'd probably go as far as to say that the event next week has the most potential since GHD if things come together properly but of course that will take some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I hope we have a cold summer with a winter like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 A lot can happen between now and the end of winter. I wouldn't give that record much consideration until February but to each his own. It would be nice to get a widespread snow event. I'd probably go as far as to say that the event next week has the most potential since GHD if things come together properly but of course that will take some work. You really think this pattern would support such a massive synaptic event.? Seasonal trends I guess would argue. But... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Josh man are you optimistic! Just for me.... please belt out a explicative in disgust! I'm at 15 inches on the year and I'm sick. You have 5 inches!!! 5!!!! and it might stay that way till February! How the phuck is it optimistic stating facts? Actually its 6, not 5, and no way in hell it stays that way til Feb. Its January ****ing 5th for christs sake. MJO is going where we want it to, strat warming event just occurred, and all models show a much colder longer range than weve seen so far this winter. Places north of I80 may actually benefit BEFORE a full blown pattern change to -AO/-NAO. Too much can suppress a lot of stuff to the south. I would be fine with suppression for a bit as long as theres a snowcover present, but naturally that will be simply more ammo for an absolute barrage of complaints of "cold and dry". It doesnt really matter though, because every thread has turned into the same crap on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 How the phuck is it optimistic stating facts? Actually its 6, not 5, and no way in hell it stays that way til Feb. Its January ****ing 5th for christs sake. MJO is going where we want it to, strat warming event just occurred, and all models show a much colder longer range than weve seen so far this winter. Places north of I80 may actually benefit BEFORE a full blown pattern change to -AO/-NAO. Too much can suppress a lot of stuff to the south. I would be fine with suppression for a bit as long as theres a snowcover present, but naturally that will be simply more ammo for an absolute barrage of complaints of "cold and dry". It doesnt really matter though, because every thread has turned into the same crap on here. Jump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 A lot can happen between now and the end of winter. I wouldn't give that record much consideration until February but to each his own. It would be nice to get a widespread snow event. I'd probably go as far as to say that the event next week has the most potential since GHD if things come together properly but of course that will take some work Agreed. But the panic and meltdowns are the lolz. This place is becoming unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 You really think this pattern would support such a massive synaptic event.? Seasonal trends I guess would argue. But... Look at the setup. There is a fairly robust southern stream anomaly that moves across the southern US before any potential phasing with the wave coming out of Canada. If it remains disjointed or phases really late then it won't be much to write home about, but if the northern wave speeds up/digs more or the southern one slows down, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 It might be Jan 6th but looking out there is really no significant snow event likely until the 12th. And that's highly dependent on a multitude of factors. So after the 12th we get a major trough which looks dry..maybe a clipper or 2. So now we are at the 18th or so.. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 A lot can happen between now and the end of winter. I wouldn't give that record much consideration until February but to each his own. It would be nice to get a widespread snow event. I'd probably go as far as to say that the event next week has the most potential since GHD if things come together properly but of course that will take some work. Climatologically Chicago should have seen 30% of its seasonal snowfall average so far, so I guess that equates to prime snow time is almost done. They have 3.5 months to get less than 8 inches of snow, yep mark it down. Least snowy winter ever for Chi-town. I will be rooting for it too. It will be a DAMN shame if all of this pessimism on these boards goes for naught. There isnt a thread you can go into without it turning into the same crap. This was a pattern change thread and you would think the models are advertising 50+ degrees every day through their longrange judging by the posts in here and not what they are REALLY showing, which is a colder pattern than weve seen all winter. But whatever. Everyone thinks that any snow hope for this winter is completely shot, so Im joining the bandwagon hardcore. I will be rooting that my own predictions for snowfall in this region are dead, dead wrong (except for SE MI of course ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Strat warming has stopped. Wondering if guidance is playing catch-up to these possible shifts. Very possible the pattern might shift latter than expected. I don't know if that's true or not, but there's another one that will begin and it does split the PV in the longer range. See the strat thread on the main forum. As far as the pattern in general, both models (Euro/GFS) show ridging near Alaska taking over and changes taking place. If these changes mean it will get colder and snowier, nobody really knows. You have the models flip-flopping around unable to grasp what's going on more than 5 days out. If you look at last nights run of the Euro at 240, it wanted to put a pretty big trough in the east and todays 12z run at 240 puts it more in the central and west. Not to mention the GFS has pretty much the opposite, and these models have basically changed position since the 00z run. The spread from the ensembles more than 7 days out is pretty huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Love to see a little Greenland blocking and a torch in Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Agreed. But the panic and meltdowns are the lolz. This place is becoming unreadable. This.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It might be Jan 6th but looking out there is really no significant snow event likely until the 12th. And that's highly dependent on a multitude of factors. So after the 12th we get a major trough which looks dry..maybe a clipper or 2. So now we are at the 18th or so.. Brutal. You confident in your 12 day forecast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Generally average to above average, with any sig torch/cold events being limited to a few days. I have 12hr increments at 500/700/850/surface through 762hrs. Most sig/long lasting cold shot is Jan. 16-20th. Looks like a -PNA signal in early Feb. I see. I was under the impression that they only showed 1 week intervals. I think he's referring to the monthly control run on Accuwx Pro, which comes out every Thursday. Not the actual weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 You confident in your 12 day forecast?? I have to admit your right. But it's a general idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Gonna be mid-january or after until MKE or wyandotte residents will have to shovel for the first time this winter. Squirrels and robins are out playing with each other.. Kids and dogs have come inside almost all fall and winter with shoes or paws covered in mud and or dog poop. Furnace is kicking in about as many times as it does in april.. Harleys are out in January like its april. Zero salt on the roads yet this winter..Saved probably close to 200 bucks this late fall and early winter so far between not washing the vehicles once a week and heating cost. Probably saved another 200 not being able to go ice fishing but once so far due to lack of safe ice. Actually getting some sleep and sex this winter because there is nothing to track but warm temps. I guess the nice thing about a pattern change if it comes in cold and dry is the ground has a good chance of being brown and not white which should keep temps from realizing the benefits of a snow pack. Before we know it feb will be here and the sun will be burning through snow in sun exposed areas Viva La 67-68 Cha-Ching Cha-Ching along with all heating cost savings and no car washes weekly Is it really any surprise the mood and some of the post on the board are as crappy as the 1st half of winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Agreed. But the panic and meltdowns are the lolz. This place is becoming unreadable. I totally disagree. It could be A LOT WORSE. I praise people for staying relatively positive considering the circumstances. I'm even scenting frustration with local meteorologist in this town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Whoa.. Never seen Josh rant like that before.. He is probably halfway to a confessional box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I totally disagree. It could be A LOT WORSE. I praise people for staying relatively positive considering the circumstances. I'm even scenting frustration with local meteorologist in this town. Nah, it's pretty bad right now. But we'll agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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