weatherpsycho Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah, it's been like that for 3 or 4 runs. It's 20.6" at the airport, 18.2" city. City hasn't been keeping consistent records this year, but the airport is at 3.7" for the season thus far. It will be interesting to see how this ends up. I still think winter has several goods to deliver with all the severe cold being shown in Canada (just not YBY). I just don't see any needed blocking happening for any prolong snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 too kind. I just listed the snowfall per decade at Pearson but I'll take the compliment. Unless that was sarcasm. lol, nah man I'm being truthful, that was some great analysis The next 10-15 days after this week look fairly stormy, lets hope we can grab a decent storm esp with the persisting cold anomalies across the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm turning into a big Don S. fan. No hype, no spin, no motive or bias, has done an excellent job with laying out the midterm forecasts. The rest of them, (outside amwx), have an agenda to see who can attract the most weenie attention. DT is almost as bad as JB lately, (posting a euro snowfall map showing feet of snow in the MA and recently headlining "historic pattern change coming" with posts on FB about being so excited about the pattern flip he couldn't sleep). That's the kind of stuff he would knock JB and accuwx for doing all the time. Apparently it's so intoxicating to win over a weenie following, they will compromise their own reputations. Then when a big storm does hit, they all beat up each other over who called it first. If I were a pro met I'd be looking at these guys like I don't know why anyone would pay for them (JB, DT & so on that is). Please just send money to me and I will put it to better use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 From 2001 onward my average snowfall went up at least 12 inches per year. My average snowfall is around 52 inches and since 2000 my average has probably been near 60-65. Yup, Detroit has officially seen FIVE 60"+ winters in the past 10 years, and TEN 60"+ winters in the previous 122 years For some reason Toronto has seen a steady decline in snowfall that the rest of the region has not seen. But it is clearly happening for whatever reason. Torontos snowfall records from the 19th century compared to the 21st century make it look like a completely different place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yup, Detroit has officially seen FIVE 60"+ winters in the past 10 years, and TEN 60"+ winters in the previous 122 years For some reason Toronto has seen a steady decline in snowfall that the rest of the region has not seen. But it is clearly happening for whatever reason. Torontos snowfall records from the 19th century compared to the 21st century make it look like a completely different place. After this winter's done and I have a little time I'm going to see how BOS, ALB, BUF, YOW, YUL compare in terms of snowfall average fluctuations over the last century. Might be something occurring in the far eastern lakes and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/01/and-battle-is-on-round-one.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I like what the EURO is showing in the extended. It has the PV (-30C to -40C in the 850MB) hanging around Manatoba and Ontario a good part of the run. While the details are not the best having that cold air available should help us northern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 In all honesty Im not a fan of risk management forecasting. But this DT guy is good from time to time. As mentioned in the Jan OBS by a poster, this write up basically throws gasoline on the fears of complete torched winter..kinda http://www.wxrisk.co...ockin/#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 http://weatherhistor...-round-one.html Mr Deedler, Probably asking the impossible, but any chance we avoid the late month torch being advertised by the EURO/GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Mr Deedler, Probably asking the impossible, but any chance we avoid the late month torch being advertised by the EURO/GFS ensembles? I sure hope so, if not at least turn it around immediately at February. Oh, we will see shots of snow before February, but it would be nice to frickin SUSTAIN a wintry pattern. There is a lot of cold bottling up in Canada. Do we REALLY want a cold, raw April? Please ma nature, send it down ASAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The way I see it, if we can't get a sustained wintry pattern, the next best thing would be a rollercoaster ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The way I see it, if we can't get a sustained wintry pattern, the next best thing would be a rollercoaster ride. Which a gradient pattern would certainly offer. Snowstorm lovers rejoice, snowcover lovers mourn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Which a gradient pattern would certainly offer. Snowstorm lovers rejoice, snowcover lovers mourn. We don't really get a decent gradient pattern. In fact if the GFS and EURO verify, we zonal out and torch. I think many of us will get past the anger stage of grieving and move on to the acceptance stage. Sub 20 or 30 inch winter is well in reach! Why do you think April will be chilly? Even if a pattern change were to happen it wouldn't completely mean a cooler than normal spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 If one thing this winter has taught me, it to never underestimate a +AO and a amped Pac jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Warm air vs. Cold evident in a week. Check out the gradient between North Dakota and Nebraska! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Warm air vs. Cold evident in a week. Check out the gradient between North Dakota and Nebraska! Wouldn't that cause a drop of like 40 degrees in South dakota? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Wouldn't that cause a drop of like 40 degrees in South dakota? Yes. The cold air mass pushes south and east later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This week looks like we may have a few possibilities for snow riding the arctic boundary. Starting next week though looks like a disaster for Lower Lakes & OHV. Going to try to enjoy this week a best as possible. That all I can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Looks very mild starting next weekend... The latest 00z GFS is less bullish on the cold in the day 10-16 range but won't buy that till I see some consistency. Overall here in Ohio we have had a grand total of 1.5 inches of snow this winter. Temperatures are about +4... Were not alone as we all know. Were suffering through an ugly winter together.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Toasty. Mario is shooting fireballs at this winter. The med range is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Toasty. Mario is shooting fireballs at this winter. The med range is lol. Actually Mario, Luigi, AND Bowser are all firing at this winter according to the ECMWF monthly 0_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The 12z euro days 7-10 are lol warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 JB just changed his mind again. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 euro makes me wanna cry.. hopefully just a bunk run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 There's always February... And for those who care, March and April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 euro makes me wanna cry.. hopefully just a bunk run. At least the 0z had an ice storm look to it at 240. 12z makes suicide the only option left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 12z EURO bring out the spring clothes folks! The 540 line basically north of the border the nation is basically torched beyond day 7.... Like last year we saw relaxations to warmer at times and this year is just the opposite where we have relaxations to colder and should get another one of those to begin February... I do believe we will have another major torch in February and if its late enough some areas in the Ohio Valley may get into the 70's...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 APX confirms DT's thinking as to why our pattern change is going to be so short lived: SIGNIFICANT WARMING TRENDS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK (AT LEAST). CURRENT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 5-WAVE 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER CONVOLUTED 4 WAVE STRUCTURE...WITH MOST NOTABLE FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING BUILDING BERING STRAITS RIDGE BOOKENDED BY NORTHEAST NOAM AND FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROUGHS. UNFORTUNATELY...AT LEAST FOR WINTER ENTHUSIASTS...ALL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES...WITH EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM SOUTHEAST RIDGE AMPLIFICATION (EARLIER MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHANGE TO A COLDER WEATHER REGIME ANTICIPATED AN EXPANSION OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE ACROSS THE POLE...EVENTUALLY LINKING UP WITH A DEVELOPING WEST DISPLACED ATLANTIC BLOCK...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH WOULD HAVE FORCED MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE CONUS. THIS NOW APPEARS TO HAVE AN EXCEEDINGLY LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING). WITH THE NOW WELL AGREED UPON PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED ABOVE...THE RESERVOIR OF COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH WILL RETREAT...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CONUS BY NEXT SUNDAY...WITH WARM AIR FURTHER SPREADING NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE PROGS ARE DOWNRIGHT REMARKABLE...WITH 00Z ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AND LOWER 40S SUNDAY...AND EVEN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BY MONDAY. LATEST GFS A LITTLE QUICKER MOVING THE WARM AIR OUT...BUT STILL FEATURING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FORECAST WILL FEATURE SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...WARMING TO NEAR 40 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY. STRENGTH OF WAA ARGUES FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE JUST HOW WARM WE GET EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Why is it going to get so warm if the MJO is in a cold spot with a falling trend of NAO, and AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 We got the cold air, just need to get the right blocking or setup. January 2002 had a huge torch followed by a major storm for parts of the MW after the torch. There were a few very nice winter storms in 2001-02. They just didnt last. The Jan 30-31 snow/ice storm was one of the most amazing winter storms Ive experienced in terms of impact, but again...snowcover was always shortlived. I figured this winter wouldnt have a sustained snowpack like last, but it looks like it may be worse than I imagined. Nevertheless, theres no doubt more winter storms are to come. Just REALLY hope a sustained pattern change to colder comes in Feb, not later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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