Pattern Change.

[dmc76]

Boo Hoo everyone!

[buckeye]

I hear ya man. Have a great trip and have fun in Hawaii!

thanks pondo,

actually you may want to target that time for winter's best shot here. Went to Florida the beginning of Feb '98 (that horrendous elnino disaster winter), the day i left i was sitting on the runway in columbus watching light snow start to fall for the first time that winter (steady snow at least). While i was in Floriday, Columbus ended up having their only real winter event of the season.

[buckeye]

Boo Hoo everyone!

No tears here, just keeping it real. I guess i could lie though.

[pondo1000]

No tears here, just keeping it real. I guess i could lie though.

Ditto. I look forward to winter every year so I am trying to fill a void here with something. I just think it would be interesting to track something even if that something is not a good winter event. I would think we have a good shot at this point to make a run at the record for least amount of snow for the winter season.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Hmmmm....

[buckeye]

Hmmmm....

lol at your sig pic !

[Chicago Storm]

You actually dont need even offer congrats. This winter has really made me see that. We are here for our own backyard and no one elses. Im actually p*ssed that they are going to probably get widespread amounts over 6"+ in WI/IL because ive constantly been told Im way too optimistic (have even been trolled) for the last month+ for simply saying winter WILL come. Now, gee, look at that, if the event goes as planned Chicago can mathematically kiss their futility record goodbye BEFORE mid-January. I wont begrudge them of their snow but I wont congratulate them either! I look forward to others pics and nothing more.

lol

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This winter is unbelievable. Accu-bust, Joe Bust-ardi and the new Weather-bull site....all are seeing their forecasts going down the can.

[snowstormcanuck]

This winter is unbelievable. Accu-bust, Joe Bust-ardi and the new Weather-bull site....all are seeing their forecasts going down the can.

I made a post in the other thread that I didn't think we'd approach the 2009-10 futility record. Honestly, I think it might end up being close.

[weatherpsycho]

I made a post in the other thread that I didn't think we'd approach the 2009-10 futility record. Honestly, I think it might end up being close.

What is your futility record number? I noticed the aweful donut hole on the 18Z GFS

[snowstormcanuck]

What is your futility record number? I noticed the aweful donut hole on the 18Z GFS

Yeah, it's been like that for 3 or 4 runs.

It's 20.6" at the airport, 18.2" city. City hasn't been keeping consistent records this year, but the airport is at 3.7" for the season thus far.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I made a post in the other thread that I didn't think we'd approach the 2009-10 futility record. Honestly, I think it might end up being close.

We are deffinately in a warmer climate phase in these parts, regardless of what's causing it. I can only recall three times when we had had so little snow to date by this time: january 2002 and January 2007. January 2006 had bare ground in Toronto, but December had seen a reasonable amount of snow. Really, there are only a handful of recorded winters (if that) that have seen such persistent dry, snowless conditions in these parts, in the early 30s, early 50s and now. Even 1931-32 saw more precip, even if it was rain. January 1950 saw a 6" snowstorm in Toronto around the 6th. Really, 1952-53, 2009-2010 and this year stand out like a sore thumb.

[snowstormcanuck]

We are deffinately in a warmer climate phase in these parts, regardless of what's causing it. I can only recall three times when we had had so little snow to date by this time: january 2002 and January 2007. January 2006 had bare ground in Toronto, but December had seen a reasonable amount of snow. Really, there are only a handful of recorded winters (if that) that have seen such persistent dry, snowless conditions in these parts, in the early 30s, early 50s and now. Even 1931-32 saw more precip, even if it was rain. January 1950 saw a 6" snowstorm in Toronto around the 6th. Really, 1952-53, 2009-2010 and this year stand out like a sore thumb.

January 2000 was similar as well, although this was about the time that year that we started to turn things around a bit. Same with January 2007. I think what compounds the problem is that we're just coming out of 2009-10. I remember saying a couple of times two winters ago that the one good thing about living through a record snowless winter is that it's a once in a lifetime occurence, so once you get it out of the way, you don't have to worry about it again.

I might eat those words.

[Jonger]

This pattern change looks like a big fat fail. I'm just not seeing it on the GFS, the persistant continental pattern of transient air regimes doesnt look to end. If theres a pattern change its definately not looking likely in January.

[SpartyOn]

Speechless. More of the same Zonal fun. This winter is almost unreal and it's lack of wintery weather is a canary in a coal mine. Could we really be looking at some rust belt cities going sub 20 inches? It could happen and History shows its not all that rare.

[snowstormcanuck]

18z GEFS are actually decent. Whole gradient is shifted further south than on the OP run. But the GEFS have been horrendous this winter.

[Nic]

We are deffinately in a warmer climate phase in these parts, regardless of what's causing it. I can only recall three times when we had had so little snow to date by this time: january 2002 and January 2007. January 2006 had bare ground in Toronto, but December had seen a reasonable amount of snow. Really, there are only a handful of recorded winters (if that) that have seen such persistent dry, snowless conditions in these parts, in the early 30s, early 50s and now. Even 1931-32 saw more precip, even if it was rain. January 1950 saw a 6" snowstorm in Toronto around the 6th. Really, 1952-53, 2009-2010 and this year stand out like a sore thumb.

I think some years are snowy some are not. Some are warm some are not. I could have said we entered a cooler climate phase last winter and based it on a few years also.

[snowstormcanuck]

I think some years are snowy some are not. Some are warm some are not. I could have said we entered a cooler climate phase last winter and based it on a few years also.

There's been a steady decline in average snowfall here the last 70 years.

[buckeye]

This winter is unbelievable. Accu-bust, Joe Bust-ardi and the new Weather-bull site....all are seeing their forecasts going down the can.

I'm turning into a big Don S. fan. No hype, no spin, no motive or bias, has done an excellent job with laying out the midterm forecasts. The rest of them, (outside amwx), have an agenda to see who can attract the most weenie attention. DT is almost as bad as JB lately, (posting a euro snowfall map showing feet of snow in the MA and recently headlining "historic pattern change coming" with posts on FB about being so excited about the pattern flip he couldn't sleep). That's the kind of stuff he would knock JB and accuwx for doing all the time.

Apparently it's so intoxicating to win over a weenie following, they will compromise their own reputations. Then when a big storm does hit, they all beat up each other over who called it first. If I were a pro met I'd be looking at these guys like

[JoMo]

This pattern change looks like a big fat fail. I'm just not seeing it on the GFS, the persistant continental pattern of transient air regimes doesnt look to end. If theres a pattern change its definately not looking likely in January.

There's a -PNA that is going to happen in the west. That's a pattern change. The Pacific NW is going to get a lot of precip, but the overall flow still looks zonalish.

[Snowstorms]

There's been a steady decline in average snowfall here the last 70 years.

Its really been declining since the 80's when the PDO shifted but averages actually remained quite high on a decadal basis from the 40's thru the 70's. Again lets see what happens with this new -PDO regime.

Since 2007 when the PDO shifted Winters have gotten much wetter than normal with above normal snowfall since 2007 expect 2009-10. Summer's have also seen a significant flip with 2008, 2009, and 2010 coming in wetter than normal.

Not really the "pattern change" I thought would occur but lets see what happens. Jan 20th-30th maybe a bit "torchy" with the MJO possibly heading into phases 3-6 but again it all depends how the AO/PNA/EPO are doing around this time frame.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm turning into a big Don S. fan. No hype, no spin, no motive or bias, has done an excellent job with laying out the midterm forecasts. The rest of them, (outside amwx), have an agenda to see who can attract the most weenie attention. DT is almost as bad as JB lately, (posting a euro snowfall map showing feet of snow in the MA and recently headlining "historic pattern change coming" with posts on FB about being so excited about the pattern flip he couldn't sleep). That's the kind of stuff he would knock JB and accuwx for doing all the time.

Apparently it's so intoxicating to win over a weenie following, they will compromise their own reputations. Then when a big storm does hit, they all beat up each other over who called it first. If I were a pro met I'd be looking at these guys like

Well said.

[Jonger]

Its really been declining since the 80's when the PDO shifted but averages actually remained quite high on a decadal basis from the 40's thru the 70's. Again lets see what happens with this new -PDO regime.

Since 2007 when the PDO shifted Winters have gotten much wetter than normal with above normal snowfall since 2007 expect 2009-10. Summer's have also seen a significant flip with 2008, 2009, and 2010 coming in wetter than normal.

Not really the "pattern change" I thought would occur but lets see what happens. Jan 20th-30th maybe a bit "torchy" with the MJO possibly heading into phases 3-6 but again it all depends how the AO/PNA/EPO are doing around this time frame.

From 2001 onward my average snowfall went up at least 12 inches per year. My average snowfall is around 52 inches and since 2000 my average has probably been near 60-65.

[snowstormcanuck]

Its really been declining since the 80's when the PDO shifted but averages actually remained quite high on a decadal basis from the 40's thru the 70's. Again lets see what happens with this new -PDO regime.

Since 2007 when the PDO shifted Winters have gotten much wetter than normal with above normal snowfall since 2007 expect 2009-10. Summer's have also seen a significant flip with 2008, 2009, and 2010 coming in wetter than normal.

Not really the "pattern change" I thought would occur but lets see what happens. Jan 20th-30th maybe a bit "torchy" with the MJO possibly heading into phases 3-6 but again it all depends how the AO/PNA/EPO are doing around this time frame.

Pearson Int'l Airport, 30 year avgs:

1938-1967: 132.1cm (52.1"), 1968-1997: 122.6cm (48.3"), 1998-Present: 115.6cm (45.5")

[Snowstorms]

Pearson Int'l Airport, 30 year avgs:

1938-1967: 132.1cm (52.1"), 1968-1997: 122.6cm (48.3"), 1998-Present: 115.6cm (45.5")

See if you organize it in terms of the PDO phase you get a different picture.

From 1938-1945 we had a warm PDO and from 1945 to 1975 a cold PDO. The average from 1938-1967 was really high because of the sick winters of the 40's, 50's and 60's. The average decreased quite a bit from 1968-1997 because even though we had great Winters between 1968-1978 the majority of the Winters onwards to 1997 were crap across the region esp the late 80's thru the mid 90's.

1998-present is a very short time frame but spliting it this is what we get;

98-99: above normal

99-00: below normal

00-01: above normal

01-02: below normal

02-03: above normal

03-04: normal

04-05: above normal

05-06: below

06-07: below

07-08: above

08-09: above

09-10: below

10-11: above

2005-06, 2006-07, 2009-10 and 2001-02 had huge impacts on the 1998-present average. Cancel them out and the average is much higher.

Lets see.

[snowstormcanuck]

Pearson Int'l Airport, 30 year avgs:

1938-1967: 132.1cm (52.1"), 1968-1997: 122.6cm (48.3"), 1998-Present: 115.6cm (45.5")

Broken down by decades:

1940s: 140.7cm (55.4")

1950s: 124.1cm (48.9")

1960s: 135.0cm (53.2")

1970s: 136.0cm (53.6")

1980s: 100.5cm (39.6")

1990s: 110.4cm (43.5")

2000s: 117.8cm (46.4")

That does seem to corroborate your claim that things bottomed out in the 80s and have been getting a little better since then. But we're still 2"+ shy of the average of the "snowless 50s" even now so I'm not sure that's saying a whole lot.

[snowstormcanuck]

See if you organize it in terms of the PDO phase you get a different picture.

From 1938-1945 we had a warm PDO and from 1945 to 1975 a cold PDO. The average from 1938-1967 was really high because of the sick winters of the 40's, 50's and 60's. The average decreased quite a bit from 1968-1997 because even though we had great Winters between 1968-1978 the majority of the Winters onwards to 1997 were crap across the region esp the late 80's thru the mid 90's.

1998-present is a very short time frame but spliting it this is what we get;

98-99: above normal

99-00: below normal

00-01: above normal

01-02: below normal

02-03: above normal

03-04: normal

04-05: above normal

05-06: below

06-07: below

07-08: above

08-09: above

09-10: below

10-11: above

2005-06, 2006-07, 2009-10 and 2001-02 had huge impacts on the 1998-present average. Cancel them out and the average is much higher.

Lets see.

Sorry, I don't follow the last sentence. Cancel out the lower #s in a range of #s and the average will be higher? Isn't that a truism? You must have been saying something implicit that I missed.

I get your point about the affects of the -PDO and I'm willing to give it a chance until we get a bigger sample size than 5 winters. Not off to a great start though with one disaster winter under our belt and potentially another one coming.

[Snowstorms]

Broken down by decades:

1940s: 140.7cm (55.4")

1950s: 124.1cm (48.9")

1960s: 135.0cm (53.2")

1970s: 136.0cm (53.6")

1980s: 100.5cm (39.6")

1990s: 110.4cm (43.5")

2000s: 117.8cm (46.4")

That does seem to corroborate your claim that things bottomed out in the 80s and have been getting a little better since then. But we're still 2"+ shy of the average of the "snowless 50s" even now so I'm not sure that's saying a whole lot.

Amazing analysis man. The 50's had quite the +AMO but the 60's and 70's were above average with a huge decline in the 80's/90's thanks to the +PDO. We've seen a improvement this past decade. Lets see how this decade stacks up.

[Snowstorms]

Sorry, I don't follow the last sentence. Cancel out the lower #s in a range of #s and the average will be higher? Isn't that a truism? You must have been saying something implicit that I missed.

I get your point about the affects of the -PDO and I'm willing to give it a chance until we get a bigger sample size than 5 winters. Not off to a great start though with one disaster winter under our belt and potentially another one coming.

Well those WInters I mentioned were quite below normal bringing down the avg.

I would rather wait for another 4-8 Winters before seeing if any improvements actually did occur.

At this point in time I do see a decent pattern change for March with cold anomalies spread out across the region but by then the Sun angle is quite high, lol.

[snowstormcanuck]

Amazing analysis man. The 50's had quite the +AMO but the 60's and 70's were above average with a huge decline in the 80's/90's thanks to the +PDO. We've seen a improvement this past decade. Lets see how this decade stacks up.

too kind. I just listed the snowfall per decade at Pearson but I'll take the compliment.

Unless that was sarcasm.