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Pattern Change.


SpartyOn

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Sorry folks, I had no intent to offend. I just got too strongly worded because I was getting frustrated with the viewpoint that the pattern was not changing (to me that means that it must be fairly stagnant, and I took issue).

As for the post of the extended GFS and the splitting polar vortex, I think that's a great sign of hope, but it's always very important to keep in mind that the GFS that far out has legitimate issues with its physics out that far (past 192) - at least that's what I understand from reading the pro mets posts. If it shows up in the ECMWF at 240 hours, then we are cooking! On that note, think I'll take a breather for awhile.

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meh, no need to take a break. It's nothing more than friendly ribbing most of the time and the crap start to winter can make for some added attitude to post that normally wouldn't occur..

For some reason friend bantering is very misunderstood on this website. The whole record low snowfall thing was just a few guys trying to have fun in an extremely crappy weather pattern. That is all it is. I don't know why some people here are so serious.

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Unfortunately, it's looking like this pattern change might not be as dramatic as earlier thought. I'd been hoping it would be a flip like January 2007 and December 1993. It's looking like we may be headed simply to average or slightly below average temperatures, at least in the Toronto area. Like Chicago WX, this winter, or lack thereof, is getting to me.

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My apologies for being a jerk earlier in the thread. Usually not my style. I think this winter, or lack of, finally got to me.

dude I don't care. snowstormcanuck was right. I douched. I learned. :poster_oops:

Thanks though.

Let's see if we can get an overachiever for everyone on Thursday-Friday! :weenie::snowman:

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Unfortunately, it's looking like this pattern change might not be as dramatic as earlier thought. I'd been hoping it would be a flip like January 2007 and December 1993. It's looking like we may be headed simply to average or slightly below average temperatures, at least in the Toronto area. Like Chicago WX, this winter, or lack thereof, is getting to me.

My take was that this pattern change was more about cold than snow, which was important since everyone is currently roasting and there has been zero hope of snow. Still, I think it won't quite live up to the 'hype' in most places, like you said. It appears that there will be two stages needed to complete this pattern change for places south of the Great Lakes. The first stage is a lock - cold air will most definitely be on the move into southern Canada with the northern states staying in the cold (a relative term this year), with at least some potential for very cold air to get pulled south. The second stage will need to be something to develop a persistent longwave trough. Whether that's an SSW or NAO/AO block or whatever. Just my $0.02, but especially if you live south of IWX, I think it's time to start looking for that second piece to the puzzle. Otherwise, the jet stream is going to rage zonal all year long apparently.

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Yup, it started back in early December when i said models were performing horribly for SE MI (which they 100% were at the time, for like 5 events in a row LOCALLY). Also, you want to talk unrealistic? Chicago getting less than 8 inches of snow in the next 3+ months. THAT is unrealistic. Funny, dont ever see you call out our regions most famous palm-planting warmingsta for adding nothing to the board other than warmth gloating, trolling, or above all else, outrageous predictions. I guess its all personal. Whatever. Troll on. I will keep my fingers crossed the snow stays away from Chicago the rest of this winter.

lol

and cromartie is fairly meh.

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0z EURO is miserable. Ens mean is somewhat better. However with a trough out west looking like a lock for the foreseeable future, I think it's going to be real tough to get a real cold/snowy pattern without either AO or NAO going negative.

Extended is a mess that is for sure. No good blocking to be found for us. Alaska & GofA are a mess!

Ironically the 6Z GFS was somewhat of an improvement for some of us in the extended as it put several small system. I know 12Z the extended will change but one can dream,

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Extended is a mess that is for sure. No good blocking to be found for us. Alaska & GofA are a mess!

Ironically the 6Z GFS was somewhat of an improvement for some of us in the extended as it put several small system. I know 12Z the extended will change but one can dream,

Everyone needs to be patient, if we can just hold on for the next ten d......meh, forget it

post-622-0-17530300-1326286743.jpg

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If you do that you are gonna piss-off Michsnowfreak! :lol:

Sometimes reality is so bad that when you comment on it, it can't help to look like trolling. The reality of this winter is one of those times.

I will offer my congrats to the folks in northern IL, IN, and MI for their upcoming 2 days of peek-a-boo winter. That's the best I can scrape together, sorry.

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Well said, Buck, well said. Maybe we should start a thread for tracking a record winter as far as the lowest snowfall. Any idea what that number might be for Columbus?

paging jbcmh, pick up the white courtesy phone please....

I agree with you though. In two weeks I'll be in Hawaii, when I get back the first week of Feb will be done.... I've never been more apathetic about a winter and wintry weather than i've been this season. Good luck to those who are still holding out though!

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Sometimes reality is so bad that when you comment on it, it can't help to look like trolling. The reality of this winter is one of those times.

I will offer my congrats to the folks in northern IL, IN, and MI for their upcoming 2 days of peek-a-boo winter. That's the best I can scrape together, sorry.

You actually dont need even offer congrats. This winter has really made me see that. We are here for our own backyard and no one elses. Im actually p*ssed that they are going to probably get widespread amounts over 6"+ in WI/IL because ive constantly been told Im way too optimistic (have even been trolled) for the last month+ for simply saying winter WILL come. Now, gee, look at that, if the event goes as planned Chicago can mathematically kiss their futility record goodbye BEFORE mid-January. I wont begrudge them of their snow but I wont congratulate them either! I look forward to others pics and nothing more. :)

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No, I give up. I say anyone, go for it. (We are north of them anyway lol). Im just gonna stick to your mantra (Im here for MBY no one elses), itll be easier that way anyway! Let everyone think they are chasing a record.

Yep. I am pretty much only interested in what falls out of the skies I am under. Actual weather is what I enjoy.

I do like seeing the incredible event/winter pictures like what is happening in Valdez area knowing that will never happen IMBY unless I move.

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paging jbcmh, pick up the white courtesy phone please....

I agree with you though. In two weeks I'll be in Hawaii, when I get back the first week of Feb will be done.... I've never been more apathetic about a winter and wintry weather than i've been this season. Good luck to those who are still holding out though!

I hear ya man. Have a great trip and have fun in Hawaii!

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