weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'd argue La Nina has been completely overwhelmed this winter, so far. The observed temp anomalies are almost the antithesis of what you'd find in a typical Nina. The next couple of weeks though are going to start changing that. Sounds about right to me but I am no expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sorry folks, I had no intent to offend. I just got too strongly worded because I was getting frustrated with the viewpoint that the pattern was not changing (to me that means that it must be fairly stagnant, and I took issue). As for the post of the extended GFS and the splitting polar vortex, I think that's a great sign of hope, but it's always very important to keep in mind that the GFS that far out has legitimate issues with its physics out that far (past 192) - at least that's what I understand from reading the pro mets posts. If it shows up in the ECMWF at 240 hours, then we are cooking! On that note, think I'll take a breather for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 meh, no need to take a break. It's nothing more than friendly ribbing most of the time and the crap start to winter can make for some added attitude to post that normally wouldn't occur.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 meh, no need to take a break. It's nothing more than friendly ribbing most of the time and the crap start to winter can make for some added attitude to post that normally wouldn't occur.. For some reason friend bantering is very misunderstood on this website. The whole record low snowfall thing was just a few guys trying to have fun in an extremely crappy weather pattern. That is all it is. I don't know why some people here are so serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Even IND says short term on the cold.. THIS BRIEF BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WE RETURN TO MORE WARMER ZONAL FLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 christ does this board need a good storm. Everything was alll happy and fun for a little bit after last night's euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Even IND says short term on the cold.. Down along I-70 I would believe it, for most of us up this way it won't be as transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Even IND says short term on the cold.. KIWX says prolonged cold. There is some obvious disagreement, at least in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 KIWX says prolonged cold. There is some obvious disagreement, at least in Indiana. Given the tight/zonal temperature gradient that is expected, I think both offices are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Given the tight/zonal temperature gradient that is expected, I think both offices are correct. My apologies for being a jerk earlier in the thread. Usually not my style. I think this winter, or lack of, finally got to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Unfortunately, it's looking like this pattern change might not be as dramatic as earlier thought. I'd been hoping it would be a flip like January 2007 and December 1993. It's looking like we may be headed simply to average or slightly below average temperatures, at least in the Toronto area. Like Chicago WX, this winter, or lack thereof, is getting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 My apologies for being a jerk earlier in the thread. Usually not my style. I think this winter, or lack of, finally got to me. dude I don't care. snowstormcanuck was right. I douched. I learned. Thanks though. Let's see if we can get an overachiever for everyone on Thursday-Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 dude I don't care. snowstormcanuck was right. I douched. I learned. Thanks though. Let's see if we can get an overachiever for everyone on Thursday-Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 dude I don't care. snowstormcanuck was right. I douched. I learned. Thanks though. Let's see if we can get an overachiever for everyone on Thursday-Friday! ugh...now I feel bad. Sorry for saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Unfortunately, it's looking like this pattern change might not be as dramatic as earlier thought. I'd been hoping it would be a flip like January 2007 and December 1993. It's looking like we may be headed simply to average or slightly below average temperatures, at least in the Toronto area. Like Chicago WX, this winter, or lack thereof, is getting to me. My take was that this pattern change was more about cold than snow, which was important since everyone is currently roasting and there has been zero hope of snow. Still, I think it won't quite live up to the 'hype' in most places, like you said. It appears that there will be two stages needed to complete this pattern change for places south of the Great Lakes. The first stage is a lock - cold air will most definitely be on the move into southern Canada with the northern states staying in the cold (a relative term this year), with at least some potential for very cold air to get pulled south. The second stage will need to be something to develop a persistent longwave trough. Whether that's an SSW or NAO/AO block or whatever. Just my $0.02, but especially if you live south of IWX, I think it's time to start looking for that second piece to the puzzle. Otherwise, the jet stream is going to rage zonal all year long apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yup, it started back in early December when i said models were performing horribly for SE MI (which they 100% were at the time, for like 5 events in a row LOCALLY). Also, you want to talk unrealistic? Chicago getting less than 8 inches of snow in the next 3+ months. THAT is unrealistic. Funny, dont ever see you call out our regions most famous palm-planting warmingsta for adding nothing to the board other than warmth gloating, trolling, or above all else, outrageous predictions. I guess its all personal. Whatever. Troll on. I will keep my fingers crossed the snow stays away from Chicago the rest of this winter. lol and cromartie is fairly meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 ugh...now I feel bad. Sorry for saying that. lol. it's ok, admitting that "I douched" was just a nice way of saying I'm a dick sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0z EURO is miserable. Ens mean is somewhat better. However with a trough out west looking like a lock for the foreseeable future, I think it's going to be real tough to get a real cold/snowy pattern without either AO or NAO going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0z EURO is miserable. Ens mean is somewhat better. However with a trough out west looking like a lock for the foreseeable future, I think it's going to be real tough to get a real cold/snowy pattern without either AO or NAO going negative. Extended is a mess that is for sure. No good blocking to be found for us. Alaska & GofA are a mess! Ironically the 6Z GFS was somewhat of an improvement for some of us in the extended as it put several small system. I know 12Z the extended will change but one can dream, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Extended is a mess that is for sure. No good blocking to be found for us. Alaska & GofA are a mess! Ironically the 6Z GFS was somewhat of an improvement for some of us in the extended as it put several small system. I know 12Z the extended will change but one can dream, Everyone needs to be patient, if we can just hold on for the next ten d......meh, forget it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Down along I-70 I would believe it, for most of us up this way it won't be as transient. I should of clarified.. I meant that here along I-70, it will only be a couple of days of cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Everyone needs to be patient, if we can just hold on for the next ten d......meh, forget it Well said, Buck, well said. Maybe we should start a thread for tracking a record winter as far as the lowest snowfall. Any idea what that number might be for Columbus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well said, Buck, well said. Maybe we should start a thread for tracking a record winter as far as the lowest snowfall. Any idea what that number might be for Columbus? If you do that you are gonna piss-off Michsnowfreak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If you do that you are gonna piss-off Michsnowfreak! Sometimes reality is so bad that when you comment on it, it can't help to look like trolling. The reality of this winter is one of those times. I will offer my congrats to the folks in northern IL, IN, and MI for their upcoming 2 days of peek-a-boo winter. That's the best I can scrape together, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If you do that you are gonna piss-off Michsnowfreak! No, I give up. I say anyone, go for it. (We are north of them anyway lol). Im just gonna stick to your mantra (Im here for MBY no one elses), itll be easier that way anyway! Let everyone think they are chasing a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well said, Buck, well said. Maybe we should start a thread for tracking a record winter as far as the lowest snowfall. Any idea what that number might be for Columbus? paging jbcmh, pick up the white courtesy phone please.... I agree with you though. In two weeks I'll be in Hawaii, when I get back the first week of Feb will be done.... I've never been more apathetic about a winter and wintry weather than i've been this season. Good luck to those who are still holding out though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sometimes reality is so bad that when you comment on it, it can't help to look like trolling. The reality of this winter is one of those times. I will offer my congrats to the folks in northern IL, IN, and MI for their upcoming 2 days of peek-a-boo winter. That's the best I can scrape together, sorry. You actually dont need even offer congrats. This winter has really made me see that. We are here for our own backyard and no one elses. Im actually p*ssed that they are going to probably get widespread amounts over 6"+ in WI/IL because ive constantly been told Im way too optimistic (have even been trolled) for the last month+ for simply saying winter WILL come. Now, gee, look at that, if the event goes as planned Chicago can mathematically kiss their futility record goodbye BEFORE mid-January. I wont begrudge them of their snow but I wont congratulate them either! I look forward to others pics and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 No, I give up. I say anyone, go for it. (We are north of them anyway lol). Im just gonna stick to your mantra (Im here for MBY no one elses), itll be easier that way anyway! Let everyone think they are chasing a record. Yep. I am pretty much only interested in what falls out of the skies I am under. Actual weather is what I enjoy. I do like seeing the incredible event/winter pictures like what is happening in Valdez area knowing that will never happen IMBY unless I move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 There is some serious winter cheer leading weenie bull shat ivading this once proud thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 paging jbcmh, pick up the white courtesy phone please.... I agree with you though. In two weeks I'll be in Hawaii, when I get back the first week of Feb will be done.... I've never been more apathetic about a winter and wintry weather than i've been this season. Good luck to those who are still holding out though! I hear ya man. Have a great trip and have fun in Hawaii! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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