SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Its been talked about and debated in multiple threads. So here we are finally a light at the end of tunnel. Hints of Alaskin ridging and a neutral PNA, a slowing AO, shifting of the PVs and a possible Greenland Block! Now if only the general guidance was in slightly better agreement. Lets look a just a couple basic plots then ill let you guys run with it.. 1st king ECMWF 12z. Later hours show a hint of a Alaska Ridge of some sorts.. The 12z GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 watch it not go above freezing till March. Mother Nature Likes to even things out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 watch it not go above freezing till March. Mother Nature Likes to even things out Gas bills FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 We are starting to see good signs, now the key is getting them to hold. The second part of the month looks like an improvement over the first half but that is not a very high bar lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I am getting very excited. Im not worried about season total snowfall, or big snowstorms, or whatever. I can hope for those of course, and theres plenty of time to finalize those season snowfall numbers or get that big storm in the next 3+ months. But all I want now is some cold and snowcover. So far on this season, Ive had 5.8" of snow imby, but a shovel has not been needed once (have had to brush the car off numerous times though). The deepest snowcover imby 2", and it melted in a day. We have officially been in the teens at DTW just 3 times. In recent weeks I have been ENJOYING our several DUSTINGS of snow. This all after a winter that was white from nearly start to finish last year. BRING ON COLD AND WHITE GROUND! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 big question is how long will hold? Until April, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have a feeling winter is returning for payback and it will last into April also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have a feeling winter is returning for payback and it will last into early March also! fixed. chasing season starts after that. Early April tornadoes FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I am getting very excited. Im not worried about season total snowfall, or big snowstorms, or whatever. I can hope for those of course, and theres plenty of time to finalize those season snowfall numbers or get that big storm in the next 3+ months. But all I want now is some cold and snowcover. So far on this season, Ive had 5.8" of snow imby, but a shovel has not been needed once (have had to brush the car off numerous times though). The deepest snowcover imby 2", and it melted in a day. We have officially been in the teens at DTW just 3 times. In recent weeks I have been ENJOYING our several DUSTINGS of snow. This all after a winter that was white from nearly start to finish last year. BRING ON COLD AND WHITE GROUND! This is my attitude at this point. 30" from this point onward would technically make this a "bad" winter in terms of total snowfall. But man would it not feel that way. This winter 30" over 3 months sounds like 100" over the same period. Almost implausibly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Long-term write up from BUF. Pattern change in Feb? IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3 WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Long-term write up from BUF. Pattern change in Feb? IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3 WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. Yea..I saw this. Lol. If thats the case lets just coast right into spring. Its sunny and 40 ish today. I can say for sure Im ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Current North American snow cover says it all. A pattern change can't come any sooner. I mean even WCanada is boiling. Despite the horrible Winter of 01-02, Toronto still managed to get one storm over 6" and the same deal in 06-07 but this is was not the case in 09-10, lets see. You know its been a horrible Winter when there's hardly been any LES either, just sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yea..I saw this. Lol. If thats the case lets just coast right into spring. Its sunny and 40 ish today. I can say for sure Im ready! I hit a bucket of balls today... I guess the torch isnt a complete waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 fixed. chasing season starts after that. Early April tornadoes FTW. Haha, yeah probably. Even though we've seen some April snows in the last 5 years. I wish I could have seen that tornado in Kenosha County January 7, 2008. Did see the damage first hand the next day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Pattern change might end up coming in installment plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 ECMWF ENS control run has the current pattern continue through at least the 21st... (Quick hitting torch/cold shots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 ECMWF ENS control run has the current pattern continue through at least the 21st... (Quick hitting torch/cold shots) Disaster winter kicking it into high gear....records in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Strat warming has stopped. Wondering if guidance is playing catch-up to these possible shifts. Very possible the pattern might shift latter than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Pattern change might end up coming in installment plans. I think this is more likely than a sudden and sustained flip to the icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just got back from the UP... Rode 400 miles on depth ranging between 10-20 inches. Still it was weak compared to normal. We had to really worry about where to ride and always had to ask about conditions. Theres like 2 inches in Paradise, Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Probably end up with a crazy chilly spring. if only every spring came in like 2010 did. March to the sky. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 ECMWF ENS control run has the current pattern continue through at least the 21st... (Quick hitting torch/cold shots) New ECMWF weeklies show the same through Feb. 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Like the 2nd half of March. As Chicago Wx said, a cold and miserable spring. If this pattern sticks with us, we might as well say spring already started. Like Alek said record setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 New ECMWF weeklies show the same through Feb. 6th. Happy Valentines Day. Cupid will shoot the pattern change through our broken winter hearts. This isn't good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 New ECMWF weeklies show the same through Feb. 6th. When you say the same, what do you mean by that? How can you pick out quick hitting torch/cold shots on weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Long-term write up from BUF. Pattern change in Feb? IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3 WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. 2-3 weeks from now is still January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Ive been on weather boards for 8-9 years now. The term blowtorch was coined several years back for record or near record highs in the 60s in mid-winter, it has now completely lost its meaning. Theres no difference between mild and torch anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 When you say the same, what do you mean by that? How can you pick out quick hitting torch/cold shots on weeklies? Generally average to above average, with any sig torch/cold events being limited to a few days. I have 12hr increments at 500/700/850/surface through 762hrs. Most sig/long lasting cold shot is Jan. 16-20th. Looks like a -PNA signal in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Ive been on weather boards for 8-9 years now. The term blowtorch was coined several years back for record or near record highs in the 60s in mid-winter, it has now completely lost its meaning. Theres no difference between mild and torch anymore. you're right, over 20 degrees above average is no big thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 2-3 weeks from now is still January. 3 weeks from now you might as well say its Feb If what BUF says verifies and the real cold is delayed, we could be looking a something almost historic in regards to snowfall deficits for select areas. Which IMo is remarkable given the expectations of this Winter. Side note. Detroit has not been below norm in the temp department since April 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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