SpartyOn Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Phasing between the arctic and polar branches. Sadly the stj seems out of reach Gotta love it. Can't win em all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If I could skip the next 3 days (even though Im off the next 2) and just jump right into the 18z GFS verifying, Id be happy as a clam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18z GFS with a large area of .25"+ qpf which would be a high ratio snow event from eastern MO/western IL and points northeast. Interesting setup This setup is sorta backwards in a way. We have a coastal low that attempts to get going, only to die out with the low farther inland becoming the dominant low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hey, Hoosier's finally realizing even the ugly models need lov'n too. I look at just about everything except the Korean when there's a storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 This setup is sorta backwards in a way. We have a coastal low that attempts to get going, only to die out with the low farther inland becoming the dominant low. It amazes me how bad the GFS was with the 0z run last night and the huge change we have now to the 18z run. Decent WSW shift with the position of the ULL from the 12z run valid 18z thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 FWIW the 18z GFS spits out between .35-.40" liquid in northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Might as well. It won't get better than this most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yup, if it ever catches the stj, we have a triple phaser, won't happen though Still entirely possible, the Southern stream still looks like it is ejecting a bit too quickly which tends to happen especially with the GFS, even a slowdown of 6-12hr would have monumental implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Still entirely possible, the Southern stream still looks like it is ejecting a bit too quickly which tends to happen especially with the GFS, even a slowdown of 6-12hr would have monumental implications. I'm not optimistic that it will slow down enough...if it did it would be a pretty big model fail at this range. Would make a huge difference though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Might as well. It won't get better than this most likely. Love the name of the image you saved it as! lol I'll gladly take my 4" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Love the name of the image you saved it as! lol I'll gladly take my 4" and run. The DGZ is like 150 mb deep on the 18z run but I'm getting ahead of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Love the name of the image you saved it as! lol I'll gladly take my 4" and run. Me too. Funny thing is, I'm headed up to IKK on Thursday. Alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm not optimistic that it will slow down enough...if it did it would be a pretty big model fail at this range. Would make a huge difference though. True for Western Lakes, but from here East a slowdown could help some even if it slows down just a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That is impressive snowcover if you compare it to now. GFS model is fitting, a backwards storm for a backwards winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The DGZ is like 150 mb deep on the 18z run but I'm getting ahead of myself. haha trust me I looked at the depth of it too but wasn't going to mention it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hey thunder, beyond the model run itself our other factors in play that make this run realistic? My amateur understanding is off hour runs are somewhat unreliable. Also saw, 12Z Euro came in drier then previous so wondering what makes you give credence to 18Z GFS? False, its mostly just Urban Weenie Legend... But with this storm yeah little support other than this one run of the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hey thunder, beyond the model run itself our other factors in play that make this run realistic? My amateur understanding is off hour runs are somewhat unreliable. Also saw, 12Z Euro came in drier then previous so wondering what makes you give credence to 18Z GFS? that run had very little in the way of support from the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hey thunder, beyond the model run itself our other factors in play that make this run realistic? My amateur understanding is off hour runs are somewhat unreliable. Also saw, 12Z Euro came in drier then previous so wondering what makes you give credence to 18Z GFS? 12z Euro was a little wetter farther east and a little drier farther west. Granted we are not talking about massive amounts of QPF on either run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hey thunder, beyond the model run itself our other factors in play that make this run realistic? My amateur understanding is off hour runs are somewhat unreliable. Also saw, 12Z Euro came in drier then previous so wondering what makes you give credence to 18Z GFS? It's not so much that they are unreliable, it's that they are volitile because the solutions are not as constrained by upper air obs. It's up to the user to use discretion. Last night's 06z GFS was a good example of an off hour run that, as BI discussed, was on to something before the 12z models. The off hour runs do still ingest satellite and surface obs, just not balloons. So, to me --for example -- last night's off hour GFS might be saying that the models are playing catch up to some extent and will be more reactive to changes upstream until there is more complete data sampling. Unfortunately, the northern trough for this week's storm won't be respectably sampled until Monday night-Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's not so much that they are unreliable, it's that they are volitile because the solutions are not as constrained by upper air obs. It's up to the user to use discretion. Last night's 06z GFS was a good example of an off hour run that, as BI discussed, was on to something before the 12z models. The off hour runs do still ingest satellite and surface obs, just not balloons. So, to me --for example -- last night's off hour GFS might be saying that the models are playing catch up to some extent and will be more reactive to changes upstream until there is more complete data sampling. Unfortunately, the northern trough for this week's storm won't be respectably sampled until Monday night-Tuesday morning. FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Anyway, it looks like the models are settling on a non-event for GL/OV, with only some snow showers and LES as the main trough comes through. I won't completely throw in the towel until I know it's better sampled, but continuity between runs is improving and I think we're pretty much done for. Storm cancel. There, I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I spent the last 4 hours at a titty bar getting drunk. I suggest some of you do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I spent the last 4 hours at a titty bar getting drunk. I suggest some of you do the same. Some of us have to work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Great discussion everyone. Anyway, it looks like the models are settling on a non-event for GL/OV, with only some snow showers and LES as the main trough comes through. I won't completely throw in the towel until I know it's better sampled, but continuity between runs is improving and I think we're pretty much done for. Storm cancel. There, I said it. I wont say storm cancel yet but yeah there is some hurdles to over come. One problem is what the models do with that system crossing Canada currently. Models blow it up in the Atlantic which helps in setting up some blocking just in time for our system. That blocking helps keep the southern system further south and east as is usually the case when we have some blocking. Yes it is brief ( the blocking ) but it is enough to do the deed. Thus the best bet is to give it a day or so to see what happens with our Canadian system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Some of us have to work tomorrow. As if the two are mutually exclusive. Try harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Some of us have to work tomorrow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As if the two are mutually exclusive. Try harder. Meh, I'd rather not have a hangover on a Monday morning knowing I have to put in a 8-hour shift (that's just me however). I'll consider the sugggestion next weekend however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I've been trying to time this out..I see it as Tomorrow 12z or is it Tuesdays 12z to see the fully sampled puzzle pieces.? (GFS) Non event? Why? It seems that at least a few inches are possible for select locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Meh, I'd rather not have a hangover on a Monday morning knowing I have to put in a 8-hour shift (that's just me however). I'll consider the sugggestion next weekend however... You should. In a pattern like this, it beats watching each excuciating frame of the NAM roll in. Luckily, I never expected much from this storm in the first place. The big news is that it actually looks like, whether incrementally or all at once, the pattern is changing. In might be my inebriation talking, but I'm calling for a "slepless night" worthy storm within the next two weeks. Heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 You should. In a pattern like this, it beats watching each excuciating frame of the NAM roll in. Luckily, I never expected much from this storm in the first place. The big news is that it actually looks like, whether incrementally or all at once, the pattern is changing. In might be my inebriation talking, but I'm calling for a "slepless night" worthy storm within the next two weeks. Heard it here first. I had my share last year. This year I vowed to not stay up for the Euro play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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