Powerball Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's over 120 hours out You're absolutely right. The point is I wouldn't hold my breath on anything significant happening with the second southern wave, if for no other reason then seasonal trends. There was also simply nothing redeeming about this particular run just looking at 500mb. It would be the worst possible way for this whole event to play out in fact (if it were to play out this way). All of that said, I'm really just venting a little frustration. The GFS is actually sort of out there right about now all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 You're absolutely right. The point is I wouldn't hold my breath on anything significant happening with the second southern wave, if for no other reason then seasonal trends. There was also simply nothing redeeming about this particular run just looking at 500mb. It would be the worst possible way for this whole event to play out in fact (if it were to play out this way). All of that said, I'm really just venting a little frustration. The GFS is actually sort of out there right about now all things considered. I am forced to agree. The MJO has begun backing towards that sh!tty phase 5 AGAIN. No surprise the pattern change/storm threat is turning into crap/being delayed. We go back to phase 4-5 and all can forget about a pattern change. The models and everything/everyone else has blown that call and so no idea on what will happen with that. EVERYONE of them had it making it to phase 7 at one point and then just took it into the circle of death but none backed it up towards phase 5 which has begun and as we are seing our storm threat is going down the drain and the pattern change is once again being delayed. I don't care who ( Met or otherwise ) says what about the MJO because the proof is right in front of us as to what is happening as a result of it. YES it could swing back the other way ( not my argument) but if it does i am 99.9% certain the pattern will change from this horrible crap we have now. Unsure if there is enough time to save our storm threat but i will say it better change back quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 FWIW the GEM shows a secondary wave as well. Would be a great hit from DFW through the Arklatex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 lol at the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I am forced to agree. The MJO has begun backing towards that sh!tty phase 5 AGAIN. No surprise the pattern change/storm threat is turning into crap/being delayed. We go back to phase 4-5 and all can forget about a pattern change. The models and everything/everyone else has blown that call and so no idea on what will happen with that. EVERYONE of them had it making it to phase 7 at one point and then just took it into the circle of death but none backed it up towards phase 5 which has begun and as we are seing our storm threat is going down the drain and the pattern change is once again being delayed. I don't care who ( Met or otherwise ) says what about the MJO because the proof is right in front of us as to what is happening as a result of it. YES it could swing back the other way ( not my argument) but if it does i am 99.9% certain the pattern will change from this horrible crap we have now. Unsure if there is enough time to save our storm threat but i will say it better change back quick. I am not sure where you get it being in phase 5: http://www.cpc.ncep....e_21m_small.gif This says it is weak phase 6 and weak phase 7 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 lol at the 12z GFS. looks good... I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 lol at the 12z GFS. What about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Pretty big swing on the 12z GFS. Still not great but if it were to continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Lock it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Pretty big swing on the 12z GFS. Still not great but if it were to continue... Excitement has just begun... Welcome back winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Pretty big swing on the 12z GFS. Still not great but if it were to continue... IMO, it was very similar to the 06z run (which was admittedly a big change from the 00z run) The phasing scenario is now more likely with the cutoff energy left out over the east Pacific, which is what the Euro has been doing. Obviously, the timing and extent of the phasing will be a problem, but I don't see anything inherently unrealistic or outrageous in the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 IMO, it was very similar to the 06z run (which was admittedly a big change from the 00z run) The phasing scenario is now more likely with the cutoff energy left out over the east Pacific, which is what the Euro has been doing. Obviously, the timing and extent of the phasing will be a problem, but I don't see anything inherently unrealistic or outrageous in the 12z run. I should've said compared to the 00z run. I didn't check the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Not expecting much here with this storm, but some backside snow showers...which look possible...would be fine by me. Anything else would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Pretty big swing on the 12z GFS. Still not great but if it were to continue... Ya really digging the trof further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Lock it! Baby steps continue. Look at the pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Ya really digging the trof further south 12z Euro also digging it farther south. Looks like more emphasis on the east coast low though. Edit: seeing some nice hangback with the 996 mb contour by 108 hours. Very elongated from the east coast westward into the northern Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Today's 12z models are unanimous in their support of the 06z GFS, leaving the cutoff energy over the Pacific which at least opens up the potential for a phase. The GFS is more of a middle ground between the less amplified Canadian and the most amplified 12z Euro. As for the phasing potential, the GFS is the most phased...Canadian the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We need a full phase, or less emphasis on the northern stream. Otherwise, you'll get a repeat of December 27th... IF what some of the models (like the latest GFS) are suggesting were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We need a full phase, or less emphasis on the northern stream. Otherwise, you'll get a repeat of December 27th... IF what some of the models (like the latest GFS) are suggesting were to happen. I would think we would want to continue seeing the trends we are seeing with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I would think we would want to continue seeing the trends we are seeing with the northern stream. Exactly. More amplified with northern is better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The JMA looks halfway decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The JMA looks halfway decent. Even the ECM shows a decent amount of moisture thrown back over SW Ontario/SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't know. The ECMWF wasn't that impressive. I still think bringing the next s/w onflow idea isn't that bad either. Both are thread the needle though. Really need a more amped northern stream with the consensus idea. It would absorb the stj. That is what JMA does(yeah, yeah boo lol). It would be ideal if all of the energy just held together, but that isn't going to happen. The benefit of having the energy cutoff in the Pacific instead of much further east is that it still leaves the chance for a phase with the northern stream. That potential is more clear now that the models have stopped trying to cut the low off in the wrong place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 DVN basically says this will be another non-event for Iowa/western Illinois. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS TO OVER 30 MPH. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR IF ANY AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT POPS. NOTICED THE ECM HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The JMA looks halfway decent. Buckeye?,,,Buckeye? Is that you? I noticed how enlongated that low was on this morning's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Buckeye?,,,Buckeye? Is that you? I noticed how enlongated that low was on this morning's run. Hey, Hoosier's finally realizing even the ugly models need lov'n too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nice streak of Snow along the front on the 18z GFS from MO to IL/SE WI... Even an inch or two will do wonders for the coming Arctic blast and getting temps down a bit more... EDIT: Band still going/developing at HR. 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18z GFS with a large area of .25"+ qpf which would be a high ratio snow event from eastern MO/western IL and points northeast. Interesting setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18z GFS with a large area of .25"+ qpf which would be a high ratio snow event from eastern MO/western IL and points northeast. Interesting setup Interesting indeed. Don't usually see a low pressure form to the west of another low pressure strengthening on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 For sh*** and giggles, shows 0.42 QPF for here (MOP). 18z GFS with a large area of .25"+ qpf which would be a high ratio snow event from eastern MO/western IL and points northeast. Interesting setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.