SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Bump. 0z runs tonight might clarify this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Bump. 0z runs tonight might clarify this mess. I wouldn't hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The 00z NAM is much more amplified with the wave coming onshore along the west coast at 84 hours. This could be typical NAM garbage at that range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 At this time frame I'd say toss it... these split stream waves have either been late to phase or non existent, I learned real quick earlier this season how tough it was to get the two streams to phase when we had a cut off southern wave trying to merge with a northern to get a storm up here. Until day 10 or so when we finally get a break in that ugly ridge out west i'd say no good I could see a late phase for the OH and east but the trend is your friend these n/s stream phases have been too far east or way to late. still think this is gonna be a late phase or non event for the MW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Well big changes coming on the 06Z GFS. Looking more like the NAM now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannie Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 So...does this mean a better chance for snow in ky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 So...does this mean a better chance for snow in ky? Nope. Doesn't look like a good chance for snow for anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannie Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Sigh...oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Well big changes coming on the 06Z GFS. Looking more like the NAM now... When the 06z GFS looks like the extended NAM, is that a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The NAM is really hanging that low pressure back into OK. Cold air is late to the party though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 From the NWS in Cleveland (Area Forecast Discussion) at 402 pm today... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA THU SO ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY WITH FALLING TEMPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS FAR OUT WON`T GET SPECIFIC ON ANY FALLING TEMPS SINCE THE FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. EXPECT SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT FOR THU NIGHT. MORE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WRAPS SE INTO THE AREA FOR FRI BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SHSN. THE SHSN SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. FOR NOW SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah, it's a messy setup. Gonna take a lot of changes for this to become a big winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 hmm some of those look pretty darn nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 hmm Ha. Weather wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It is the NAM but, looks interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It is the NAM but, looks interesting... It's a decent amount slower with the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It is the NAM but, looks interesting... Yeah it is... looks like some of those GEFS runs. More of a northward push towards the trough coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 00z NAM is a good 200-300 miles farther west with the southern wave at 84 hours compared to where the 12z EC/GFS had it at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah it looks better but question is whether it's the NAM being the NAM. Right now you have to think it is until other guidance shows that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah it looks better but question is whether it's the NAM being the NAM. Right now you have to think it is until other guidance shows that solution. I will be interested to see if the other 00z runs are slower. Also I think the number of GFS ensembles that look better than the op are enough to say stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That 2nd s/w is becoming more interesting by the run. 2 days ago, it barely existed lol. Yep GFS shows the pretty interesting looking 2nd s/w. Yet another possible scenario lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Geez!!! that setup at 500mb is just pure crap (no other way to put it or sugar coat it)...Never in my life... But we're not even halfway through the winter yet. There's plenty of time for things to turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 May have to start another thread...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 May have to start another thread...... Hmm....its interesting but lets wait for some consistency. With the pattern as progressive as it is anything is possible. Still interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Not to worried about it being disorganized right now. Just glad it's there. It's at least something to track. Would be healthy liquid to snow ratios as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Makes sense rather than diving the entire arctic lob into the CONUS, it flys on buy creating 'blocking' then the s/w phases with the next piece. Granted, the GFS was as weak, disorganized and undeveloped as you can get, but you get the picture. Just to name A FEW of the things wrong with that setup... 1. Nothing's going to come out of that positively tilted crap of a trough unless you want a repeat of December 5th and December 23rd. 2, The northern stream wave is too far east for a phase at all (let along one that would benefit us). I'm not even going to get into the crap with the initial southern wave and what's happening in SE Canada/Greenland. Agian, pure crap!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Take a chill pill Powerball. It's over 120 hours out and we haven't even seen the other 00Z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Not to worried about it being disorganized right now. Just glad it's there. It's at least something to track. Would be healthy liquid to snow ratios as well. lol, its one one that showed it and you are already talking that..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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