SpartyOn Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hints of a Greenland block showing its pretty face. That's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Is this a storm thread or the AGW/debbie downer/winter cancel crowd thread? seriously, brutal thread. Anyways plenty of the 0z GFS ensemble members develope a storm, as does the 0z Euro, no reason to abandon ship yet, not sure why anyone would expect clarity in phase timing issues at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Is this a storm thread or the AGW/debbie downer/winter cancel crowd thread? my bad. I felt some of the crticisms of David Philips should be addressed though. I'll bring it around.... snow chances with this storm look like sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 seriously, brutal thread. Anyways plenty of the 0z GFS ensemble members develope a storm, as does the 0z Euro, no reason to abandon ship yet, not sure why anyone would expect clarity in phase timing issues at this range. 6z GEFS look like they continue the ideas of the 0z run. A lot have something, but like you said it's too early to get up or down. Long ways to go, but definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 my bad. I felt some of the crticisms of David Philips should be addressed though. I'll bring it around.... snow chances with this storm look like sh*t. Hey, it has its time and place...but probably in the general January thread or the CC forum. Not trying to single you out or anything, but it just seems like there is little storm talk...not to mention the doom and gloomers about this winter that appeared. Again probably not the thread. Not that I helped any in the beginning with the bet talk. Anyways, carry on...don't mind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The 6z looked alot better but we need the northern piece to speed up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 There will be a storm. It will go either west or on top of us here in Ohio. Bring out the umbrellas and enjoy the flurries on the back side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 my bad. I felt some of the crticisms of David Philips should be addressed though. I'll bring it around.... snow chances with this storm look like sh*t. Still lots of time left for this to change. Again timing is everything. If it can phase later than what the ECMWF depicts then things could get interesting but an earlier phase or no phase could mean mixing. We may have a neutral PNA and neutral NAO around this time frame, perhaps a slightly EB -NAO anomaly and neutral EPO so anything is possible. Given its over 100 hours out, I remain optimistic right now. Though this storm does look to be the pattern changer, so thats one good outcome at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS remains super late with the northern branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS remains super late with the northern branch. That is key, also where the southern stream cuts off/digs will be key. The Euro/GGEM are further SW compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That is key, also where the southern stream cuts off/digs will be key. The Euro/GGEM are further SW compared to the GFS. two issues that tend to take a while to resolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Still lots of time left for this to change. Again timing is everything. If it can phase later than what the ECMWF depicts then things could get interesting but an earlier phase or no phase could mean mixing. We may have a neutral PNA and neutral NAO around this time frame, perhaps a slightly EB -NAO anomaly and neutral EPO so anything is possible. Given its over 100 hours out, I remain optimistic right now. Though this storm does look to be the pattern changer, so thats one good outcome at this point in time. I'm not real optimistic, at least for snow chances here with this storm. Any time you need two discrete s/ws to interact with each other with no margin for error spatially or temporally, you have a textbook "thread the needle event". I'm just glad that it looks like this storm will be the catalyst for (or at least coincide with) the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm not real optimistic, at least for snow chances here with this storm. Any time you need two discrete s/ws to interact with each other with no margin for error spatially or temporally, you have a textbook "thread the needle event". I'm just glad that it looks like this storm will be the catalyst for (or at least coincide with) the pattern change. This right here is why if we miss out on something I won't be sad as I know this will set the stage for other things further down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Canadian took a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Canadian took a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Boy that is one hell of a dryslot lol. Edit: The 18hrs leading up to that image are pretty damn good for most of us. Also note, as I mentioned before the GGEM dove that Southern stream energy further Southwest and ended up producing a much much more amplified system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Boy that is one hell of a dryslot lol. Edit: The 18hrs leading up to that image are pretty damn good for most of us. Also note, as I mentioned before the GGEM dove that Southern stream energy further Southwest and ended up producing a much much more amplified system. Yep, it was a nice run and a nice shift from 0z. Looking forward to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That Canadian looks like it would produce some nice LES for Lower MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I had only seen it up to 144 and thought damn the canadian looks like its going for a full on phase. Now I see it has. My money is on the non phase gfs solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Dr. No will lead the bunch... Throw away the GFS and CMC to be honest. The doctor will lead the way... Probably won't lock in on something till Saturday.. I never take the GFS beyond day 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Dr. No will lead the bunch... Throw away the GFS and CMC to be honest. The doctor will lead the way... Probably won't lock in on something till Saturday.. I never take the GFS beyond day 5... The Euro has been more phased than the OP GFS for a few runs now....my guess is it remains so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Through hr 96, Euro has the (stronger) southern energy quite a bit further SW than the GFS, similar to the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Through hr 96, Euro has the (stronger) southern energy quite a bit further SW than the GFS, similar to the GGEM. Stebo and I were talking about it on the last page, but this is a double whammy, vorts in the SW are always a pain and the difficulties pegging strength and location of our Pac kicker are well documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yep, until we get some decent sampling, it will be tough to gauge the speed/amplitude of the two energies, so it's tough to forecast wheter or not and where a phase would occur. Stebo and I were talking about it on the last page, but this is a double whammy, vorts in the SW are always a pain and the difficulties pegging strength and location of our Pac kicker are well documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The Euro has been more phased than the OP GFS for a few runs now....my guess is it remains so. I have learned never to throw out the EURO because you will get burnt.. Throwing all your chips at the GFS you are bound for failure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro looks slower will the northern branch compared to the GGEM, so not expecting anything GGEM like as far as phasing goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro looks slower will the northern branch compared to the GGEM, so not expecting anything GGEM like as far as phasing goes. The Euro is also slower/west with the southern piece, but obv a ridic amped solution like the GGEM is unlikely, lol at that Alabama to Detroit to Milwaukee low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The Euro is also slower/west with the southern piece, but obv a ridic amped solution like the GGEM is unlikely, lol at that Alabama to Detroit to Milwaukee low track. It would sure be nice to see that GGEM track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro is trying to dig the Northern stream energy into SW, thus making it act like a kicker instead of phasing with the system. I suppose its plausible though I would be a bit hesitant to buy into a solution like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Heck if the models right now were showing a perfect storm then we would all be talking about how bad it is to be in the bullseye 7 days out As Mr. Spock was fond of saying there are possibilites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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