January 12-14 Potential storm

[Ajdos]

EURO ::

[kab2791]

12Z Euro Quick List

MOP: 0.45 -0.55

ORD: 0.50

MKE: 0.49

LAF: 0.27

BTL: 0.60

DTW: 0.22

PTK: 0.21

[Ajdos]

.

[Ajdos]

12Z Euro Quick List

MOP: 0.45 -0.55

ORD: 0.50

MKE: 0.49

LAF: 0.27

BTL: 0.60

DTW: 0.22

PTK: 0.21

You would think that there would be more QPF....looks like a perfect track for s/e Mi..does look further east with the low?

[A-L-E-K]

You would think that there would be more QPF....looks like a perfect track for s/e Mi..

not really

[kab2791]

No way is that a perfect track for you guys with a SLP overhead...you guys still get the wrap around moisture after dryslotting.

You would think that there would be more QPF....looks like a perfect track for s/e Mi..

[wisconsinwx]

There is a scary consensus now of right around 0.5" QPF for both Milwaukee and Chicago. With 15-17:1 ratios, I guess we're looking at about 7-8 inches or so, maybe 9 if taken verbatim.

[Hoosier]

What are you thinking for Marion, Hoosier???

same

[A-L-E-K]

There is a scary consensus now of right around 0.5" QPF for both Milwaukee and Chicago. With 15-17:1 ratios, I guess we're looking at about 7-8 inches or so, maybe 9 if taken verbatim.

SREF are showing more like 12-15:1 ratios for the most part with a brief ramp higher at the end.

[Thundersnow12]

[Chicago Storm]

12Z ECMWF:

LSE:

THU 00Z 12-JAN   0.8	-3.5	1007	  82	  93	0.01	 542	 537  
THU 06Z 12-JAN  -5.7	-7.8	1010	  65	 100	0.07	 537	 530  
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -7.4   -12.2	1010	  62	  99	0.13	 533	 525  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -7.6   -13.8	1008	  61	  99	0.10	 530	 523  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -8.6   -16.1	1010	  59	  99	0.06	 529	 522  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN -10.1   -15.2	1011	  59	  77	0.03	 529	 521

MSN:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -3.6	-5.1	1004	  74	  95	0.02	 536	 532  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -4.2	-9.5	1003	  75	  99	0.15	 531	 529  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.8   -12.9	1005	  76	 100	0.17	 528	 524  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -9.1   -14.2	1006	  72	  97	0.08	 528	 523  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN -10.0   -15.7	1010	  69	  94	0.02	 530	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -8.2   -15.5	1014	  61	  68	0.01	 532	 521

MKE:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.0	-5.5	 999	  82	  97	0.05	 532	 533  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.7	-9.7	1001	  77	 100	0.15	 528	 527  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.8   -11.1	1003	  76	 100	0.16	 526	 524  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.5   -14.5	1006	  72	  97	0.10	 528	 523  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.8   -16.0	1011	  62	  93	0.03	 531	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -8.5   -16.0	1016	  69	  73	0.01	 532	 520

SBM:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -1.9	-4.9	1001	  78	  94	0.04	 533	 532  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.5	-8.9	1002	  75	  99	0.13	 529	 528  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.0   -10.5	1002	  75	 100	0.17	 527	 525  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.1   -15.1	1006	  72	  97	0.10	 528	 523  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.4   -16.3	1010	  63	  99	0.03	 530	 522

CID:

THU 06Z 12-JAN  -4.4	-6.8	1009	  64	 100	0.02	 539	 532  
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -7.6   -12.0	1010	  52	 100	0.10	 533	 525  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -8.0   -15.2	1009	  52	  99	0.08	 528	 521  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -8.3   -16.6	1011	  53	  97	0.08	 528	 519  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -9.1   -14.7	1012	  47	  62	0.02	 530	 520

DVN:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -5.7	-8.9	1007	  69	  99	0.07	 535	 529  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.8   -13.4	1007	  67	 100	0.17	 528	 523  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -15.9	1009	  69	  99	0.12	 527	 520  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.7   -16.2	1010	  64	  98	0.04	 529	 520  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN -10.7   -14.0	1014	  57	  61	0.01	 531	 520

PIA:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -3.5	-5.4	1005	  71	 100	0.02	 536	 532  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.2   -13.0	1005	  67	 100	0.17	 529	 524  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -7.8   -15.8	1008	  70	 100	0.13	 525	 519  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.2   -16.4	1010	  65	  97	0.05	 527	 519  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN -10.1   -14.9	1014	  54	  86	0.01	 531	 521

RFD:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -2.3	-3.5	1003	  72	  94	0.01	 536	 534  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -4.0	-8.5	1002	  77	  99	0.16	 530	 529  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.2   -12.5	1004	  78	 100	0.17	 527	 524  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.3   -14.3	1006	  73	  99	0.09	 527	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -9.5   -15.6	1010	  68	  99	0.02	 530	 522

ORD:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -0.5	-5.5	 999	  85	  99	0.08	 532	 532  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.1	-9.7	1001	  79	 100	0.18	 527	 526  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.2   -12.4	1004	  77	 100	0.16	 526	 523  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.0   -14.1	1008	  74	  97	0.07	 528	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.5   -15.4	1012	  63	  92	0.02	 532	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -8.9   -16.2	1017	  70	  64	0.01	 533	 520

MDW:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -0.2	-5.1	 999	  86	  98	0.07	 532	 533  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -2.6	-9.6	1001	  81	 100	0.18	 527	 526  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.9   -12.7	1004	  78	 100	0.16	 525	 523  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -14.4	1008	  74	  97	0.07	 528	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.6   -15.5	1012	  64	  94	0.02	 532	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -8.0   -16.1	1017	  67	  70	0.01	 533	 520

STL:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -3.1	-9.3	1008	  71	 100	0.05	 536	 530  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -3.8   -15.7	1009	  52	  99	0.08	 527	 520  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.9   -16.4	1012	  50	  97	0.02	 525	 516  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.0   -16.3	1014	  46	  81	0.02	 529	 518   

DEC:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -5.7   -12.5	1005	  67	 100	0.11	 529	 525  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -7.5   -16.4	1008	  64	 100	0.08	 524	 518  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.6   -16.8	1011	  60	  98	0.05	 526	 518  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.5   -15.6	1014	  46	  88	0.01	 531	 521

PAH:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -0.5   -11.9	1008	  60	  99	0.08	 530	 524  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.0   -12.5	1011	  46	  97	0.01	 525	 516

IND:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.3	-3.8	1000	  85	  96	0.02	 533	 533  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.5   -14.1	1004	  65	  98	0.07	 524	 521  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.2   -15.5	1007	  66	 100	0.07	 523	 517  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -17.1	1011	  60	  98	0.02	 528	 520  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -17.3	1015	  47	  93	0.01	 533	 522

LAF:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -0.4	-4.5	1000	  80	  84	0.03	 532	 532  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.5   -11.7	1003	  74	  99	0.11	 525	 523  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.7   -14.3	1006	  73	 100	0.12	 523	 519  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.1   -16.4	1010	  70	  96	0.04	 528	 520  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -7.2   -16.8	1014	  56	  99	0.01	 533	 522

VPZ:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.0	-3.8	 998	  94	  93	0.04	 533	 534  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.0	-7.8	 998	  89	  96	0.20	 527	 528  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.2   -12.6	1002	  82	 100	0.21	 524	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.8   -15.3	1007	  77	  96	0.09	 527	 521  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -16.2	1012	  68	  97	0.05	 532	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -8.0   -16.1	1017	  70	  98	0.02	 534	 521  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN -10.7   -14.6	1019	  71	  65	0.01	 533	 519

OKK:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.5	-2.2	 998	  87	  41	0.02	 534	 535  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.7	-9.6	1001	  76	  99	0.07	 525	 525  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.3   -12.9	1003	  76	 100	0.13	 522	 520  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.8   -16.2	1008	  71	  95	0.06	 527	 520  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -7.0   -16.9	1013	  58	  99	0.03	 532	 522

FWA:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.7	 1.5	 998	  97	  87	0.02	 543	 545  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   3.7	-1.0	 997	  85	  90	0.01	 535	 538  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -2.3	-5.8	 998	  80	  95	0.03	 527	 529  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -4.2   -10.1	 999	  81	  99	0.10	 522	 523  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -13.5	1005	  72	  98	0.10	 525	 521  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.2   -14.7	1010	  63	  95	0.03	 530	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.3   -14.8	1016	  62	 100	0.02	 534	 521  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -7.9   -13.9	1018	  63	 100	0.01	 533	 520

HAO:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   5.0	 2.3	1000	  96	  46	0.01	 546	 546  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   7.9	-1.4	 998	  75	  83	0.02	 537	 539  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.8   -10.0	1002	  76	  95	0.14	 527	 525  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -16.0	1006	  59	 100	0.03	 521	 516  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.5   -16.6	1010	  56	  96	0.02	 526	 518  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.2   -16.2	1014	  48	  95	0.01	 532	 522

DAY:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.4	 1.9	 999	  97	  62	0.02	 546	 547  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   6.6	-0.6	 998	  78	  48	0.02	 538	 540  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -0.6	-6.8	1000	  87	  99	0.11	 528	 528  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.8   -15.0	1004	  65	 100	0.05	 520	 517  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.3   -16.6	1008	  61	  97	0.05	 524	 518  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -16.6	1012	  52	 100	0.03	 531	 521  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.4   -16.4	1017	  52	 100	0.01	 535	 521  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -7.8   -14.6	1019	  57	  94	0.01	 534	 520

CMH:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   6.7	 0.7	 998	  85	  70	0.03	 540	 542  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   5.4	-2.1	 996	  94	 100	0.06	 532	 535  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.5   -14.9	1003	  62	 100	0.13	 519	 517  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.3   -15.8	1006	  59	 100	0.05	 522	 517  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.1   -16.1	1011	  53	 100	0.03	 528	 520  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.7   -16.0	1016	  52	  99	0.02	 534	 521  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -7.1   -14.1	1018	  58	  97	0.01	 534	 520  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -7.2   -14.2	1020	  59	  93	0.02	 533	 518

TDZ:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.7	 0.8	 995	  95	  86	0.05	 538	 542  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.0	-2.4	 995	  88	  91	0.02	 531	 534  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -4.3	-6.7	 996	  74	  99	0.03	 521	 525  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.3   -10.1	 998	  79	  99	0.16	 521	 523  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -2.7   -12.2	1004	  68	  97	0.07	 527	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.1   -13.2	1012	  73	  93	0.05	 532	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.3   -14.7	1015	  76	 100	0.04	 533	 521  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -7.9   -14.5	1018	  78	 100	0.02	 532	 518  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.5   -15.1	1019	  66	  36	0.01	 531	 516

CLE:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   5.5	 1.9	 995	  93	  97	0.04	 541	 545  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   5.7	-1.4	 995	  86	  85	0.02	 533	 537  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -2.7	-8.1	 997	  74	  93	0.11	 522	 524  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -4.7   -11.1	 997	  75	 100	0.08	 518	 520  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.1   -12.0	1003	  72	  93	0.13	 525	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.3   -12.7	1011	  72	  94	0.03	 530	 522  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -5.8   -14.1	1014	  74	  93	0.05	 532	 521  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -6.0   -15.2	1017	  76	  99	0.07	 532	 519  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.2   -15.3	1018	  63	  94	0.03	 531	 517  
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -7.0   -14.8	1020	  73	  35	0.01	 531	 516  
SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -6.4   -14.8	1021	  70	  51	0.02	 532	 515

MKG:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.8	-1.3	 997	  90	 100	0.01	 534	 537  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   0.2	-4.5	 996	  90	 100	0.16	 529	 532  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -1.7	-8.3	 997	  84	 100	0.19	 525	 528  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.1   -12.2	1001	  78	 100	0.17	 525	 525  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.5   -13.8	1006	  69	  98	0.11	 529	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.6   -14.5	1013	  73	 100	0.05	 532	 522  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.8   -15.2	1016	  76	  71	0.02	 531	 519  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -8.4   -15.7	1017	  75	  34	0.01	 529	 516  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.9   -15.6	1018	  63	  52	0.01	 530	 516  
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -5.5   -14.9	1020	  67	  59	0.01	 531	 516

GRR:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.8	-1.1	 996	  97	  98	0.06	 535	 539  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   0.8	-4.0	 994	  98	  99	0.13	 529	 534  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -1.9	-6.5	 995	  89	 100	0.17	 525	 529  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.7   -10.3	 999	  84	  99	0.16	 524	 525  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.2   -13.7	1005	  70	  98	0.11	 528	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.2   -14.8	1013	  78	 100	0.05	 532	 522  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN -10.2   -14.4	1016	  85	  80	0.01	 531	 519

BTL:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.8	 0.8	 998	  93	  95	0.01	 542	 543  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.9	-0.5	 995	  95	  85	0.04	 535	 539  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.0	-3.5	 994	  99	  93	0.11	 529	 534  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -1.2	-6.3	 994	  92	 100	0.14	 524	 528  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.6   -10.8	1000	  84	 100	0.17	 524	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.5   -13.0	1006	  69	  97	0.11	 528	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.5   -14.0	1012	  78	  97	0.05	 532	 522  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -7.9   -14.1	1016	  84	  93	0.02	 532	 520  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -8.9   -14.5	1018	  79	  60	0.01	 530	 516  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -5.5   -15.1	1019	  69	  46	0.01	 531	 516  
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -7.8   -14.8	1020	  74	  56	0.01	 532	 516

ADG:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.4	 0.2	 995	  93	  89	0.05	 537	 541  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.5	-3.0	 995	  95	  83	0.04	 530	 534  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -3.5	-5.2	 994	  85	  99	0.02	 522	 527  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -2.6	-9.8	 997	  80	 100	0.12	 522	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -1.8   -12.2	1004	  56	  98	0.06	 527	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.4   -13.8	1011	  70	  95	0.03	 532	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.4   -14.2	1015	  70	  99	0.02	 532	 521  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -9.1   -14.5	1018	  72	  94	0.01	 531	 518  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.7   -15.4	1019	  62	  35	0.00	 530	 516  
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -6.3   -14.8	1020	  67	  52	0.01	 531	 516

DTW:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.0	 0.5	 994	  96	  98	0.07	 538	 543  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.6	-1.9	 994	  95	  84	0.04	 531	 536  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -2.4	-4.6	 994	  84	  99	0.02	 523	 528  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.8	-7.4	 994	  86	 100	0.14	 521	 526  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -1.2   -11.7	1002	  61	  91	0.07	 526	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.2   -14.2	1010	  69	  98	0.02	 530	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.9   -15.5	1014	  69	 100	0.01	 532	 521

PHN:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.5	 0.7	 994	  96	 100	0.06	 539	 544  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   4.0	-1.1	 993	  96	  91	0.10	 533	 538  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   1.3	-3.4	 992	  93	  97	0.02	 525	 532  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -2.3	-5.2	 992	  87	 100	0.07	 521	 527  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -1.7   -10.0	 999	  70	  93	0.07	 525	 526  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.6   -15.3	1009	  69	  98	0.02	 529	 522  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.3   -15.5	1013	  69	  99	0.01	 531	 521

YKF:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.2	 0.2	1000	  98	  94	0.05	 544	 544  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.4	-0.3	 997	  97	  95	0.04	 541	 543  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.1	-1.1	 994	  99	  97	0.05	 536	 540  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   2.8	-2.1	 991	  97	  86	0.05	 529	 536  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.4	-7.1	 993	  83	  86	0.06	 522	 527  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -1.0	-5.7	 992	  82	  95	0.05	 522	 528  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.1   -14.0	1004	  67	  99	0.03	 527	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.3   -15.5	1010	  67	 100	0.02	 529	 521

YYZ:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.4	 0.3	1001	  97	  97	0.13	 544	 543  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.6	-1.5	 997	  97	  92	0.12	 541	 543  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.9	-0.6	 995	  96	  97	0.06	 537	 541  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   3.6	-1.7	 992	  95	  88	0.06	 530	 536  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.7	-5.5	 992	  86	  99	0.09	 522	 529  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -0.3	-6.1	 992	  80	  99	0.12	 521	 528  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.4   -13.5	1003	  70	 100	0.04	 526	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.1   -15.3	1010	  69	  95	0.02	 529	 521

[Ajdos]

Improvement for DTW..

[dmc76]

Improvement for DTW..

Upper East side toward Port Huron Major Dry slot!

Places like Chesterfield, Algonac and St. Clair wont get an Inch

[SpartyOn]

Let it go guys..let the LAF LOT MKE crews have fun. They deserve it!

[A-L-E-K]

It's not set in stone but timing would put Rush hour tomorrow in a rough spot...so glad i don't have to mess with that nonsense.

[Nic]

Cut off appers to be near 1-70 I am on 1-70 pretty much.

[Stebo]

Pinpointing exact dryslot locations/orientations with a storm like this is extremely futile at this junction. However I personally would rather the low track about 50 miles East of it's current projection.

[A-L-E-K]

[csnavywx]

KORD's bufkit at 7pm tomorrow.

Note that there is very little wind shear throughout most of the snow growth column (-10 to -20C) and that this activity will seed a lower cold layer between 3-5kft. Based on this (and the full time lapse of a growing lower DGZ), I'd start with around 15:1 and ramp it up to over 20:1 for the last half of the event.

Note the low level snow growth zone (due to CAA, bound by -10C temps) begin to intrude right around the time of peak forcing.

[Chicago WX]

KORD's bufkit at 7pm tomorrow.

Note that there is very little wind shear throughout most of the snow growth column (-10 to -20C) and that this activity will seed a lower cold layer between 3-5kft. Based on this (and the full time lapse of a growing lower DGZ), I'd start with around 15:1 and ramp it up to over 20:1 for the last half of the event.

Thanks for pointing that out. Always appreciate your thoughts.

Awesome, absolutely awesome.

[wisconsinwx]

KORD's bufkit at 7pm tomorrow.

Note that there is very little wind shear throughout most of the snow growth column (-10 to -20C) and that this activity will seed a lower cold layer between 3-5kft. Based on this (and the full time lapse of a growing lower DGZ), I'd start with around 15:1 and ramp it up to over 20:1 for the last half of the event.

Note the low level snow growth zone (due to CAA, bound by -10C temps) begin to intrude right around the time of peak forcing.

Would that same general principle hold for Milwaukee as well?

[Geos]

[attachment=52892:KORD BUF 1.png

KORD's bufkit at 7pm tomorrow.

Note that there is very little wind shear throughout most of the snow growth column (-10 to -20C) and that this activity will seed a lower cold layer between 3-5kft. Based on this (and the full time lapse of a growing lower DGZ), I'd start with around 15:1 and ramp it up to over 20:1 for the last half of the event.

[attachment=52900:KORD BUF 2.png

Note the low level snow growth zone (due to CAA, bound by -10C temps) begin to intrude right around the time of peak forcing.

Thanks for sharing! Sounds good.

[Hoosier]

this is a bit of an ass backwards storm, but going from 50s this afternoon to windchills near zero with snow in a little over 24 hrs is pretty sweet.

Jan 1967 is well known but there can't be too many times that Chicago has been in the 50's and then possibly 6"+ of snow in the next 1-2 days.

[KokomoWX]

My call for OKK is 4-6".

[csnavywx]

Would that same general principle hold for Milwaukee as well?

Yes, MKE's thermal and omega profiles look very similar to ORD's.

[weatherbo]

My call for OKK is 4-6".

Seems high... think you may be disappointed.

[A-L-E-K]

KORD's bufkit at 7pm tomorrow.

Note that there is very little wind shear throughout most of the snow growth column (-10 to -20C) and that this activity will seed a lower cold layer between 3-5kft. Based on this (and the full time lapse of a growing lower DGZ), I'd start with around 15:1 and ramp it up to over 20:1 for the last half of the event.

Note the low level snow growth zone (due to CAA, bound by -10C temps) begin to intrude right around the time of peak forcing.

Thanks for taking your time to do this, if we can manage those kinds of ratios with .5, i just might nail my call.

good stuff guys

[gosaints]

For me its all gonna come down to how soon the storm raps up. The sooner the better. If it wraps up slower could end up with an inch. Quickly could see 4-6 inches.

[RobertSul]

Are you kidding me? Most I've had is a half inch on the ground in Canton, MI. But let them have 16 times that amount because they deserve it, afterall GHD's two feet just wasn't enough for Chicago!!

Let it go guys..let the LAF LOT MKE crews have fun. They deserve it!

[hm8]

And...