Gilbertfly Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12Z RGM ... long duration snow dump . . . sub 990 in MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nice system it looks like for us. Idk about these big numbers but looking at the setup I'd take the probably 3-4" for NW Ohio. Btw the NAM is also really bringing the wind in as well, 30 mph for some parts of the storm. Talk about bringing the heat. However its numbers are way higher than others so I'm a little concerned about the strength it's predicting I'll go 3-7". Even the GFS shows .4" or so while the NAM looks a lot better. Position of the 700mb low puts some good Vertical Velocities over us on Friday morning, so I think 12 or 13:! ratios would be likely. Temps were in the teens all event on the NAM... so could even be a little higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12Z RGM ... long duration snow dump . . . sub 990 in MI Consensus on a sub 990 low towards the thumb is pretty great, with the model QPF spread over the metro tightly clustered from .4-.6, heaviest east. With the anticipated winds, the eastern portion of LOTs area should have its first warning of the season by this afternoon. FWIW the HPC model discussion found no major errors with the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Some of those GFS ensemble members are really juicy way west of the OP GFS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1038 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012 UPDATE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD BUT THE SFC OBS ARE NOW INDICATING A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AHEAD OF THE POLAR FRONT. 12Z UA DATA COMPARED TO THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS WAS INTERESTING. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER ALOFT THAN ANY MODEL SUGGESTS WHICH INDICATES A DEGREE OF NON-LINEARITY TO THE SYSTEM. THE OVERALL AFFECT IS TO HAVE THE SYSTEM BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST WHICH WAS SHOWN WITH THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELS. SUCH A SLOWING MAY POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO SOME DEGREE. FURTHER EVALUATION ON THIS IS NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Pretty remarkable how this storm has unfolded. Two days ago I was barely paying attention to models, expecting a few bursts of snowshowers following the passage of the front. You've gotta love these dynamic, quickly-developing situations as much as the bombs that are decently modeled a week out. The trend sure has been our friend here in northeast IL with this one. What a surprise and great way to kick off the extremely stunted 2012 winter season. I'm glad we've FINALLY got fall behind us. I don't post regularly here, mostly for storms & threats (I do regularly lurk), but I still can't get over that my first post wasn't until mid-January this season. Bring on winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Consensus on a sub 990 low towards the thumb is pretty great, with the model QPF spread over the metro tightly clustered from .4-.6, heaviest east. With the anticipated winds, the eastern portion of LOTs area should have its first warning of the season by this afternoon. FWIW the HPC model discussion found no major errors with the 12z NAM. yep...and enough wealth spread to make a nice hwy to tap into the candian briskness going forward... watcing the system unfold. . .interested to see where pressures get handed off to...some variance in those solutions...implications on enhancement, the deform dump, duration...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks good for Gaylord! Possibly heading up Sunday Morning for 2 days of riding the trails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1037 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012 DISCUSSION 1034 AM CST MORNING UPDATE... 12Z WRF-NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS WITH RESPECT TO LARGE SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOOMING WINTER STORM. 12Z WRF ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER WITH QPF AMOUNTS THAN ITS 06Z COUNTERPART. IN ANY CASE...MODELS DEPICT A VIGOROUS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WHICH CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG DEEP ASCENT NOTED IN GUIDANCE TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...LEFT EXIT OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY ALL AIDING IN PRODUCTION OF DEEP LARGE-SCALE FORCING. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS AND THERMALLY DERIVED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. ALL OF THE CONCERNS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT REMAIN VALID WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES/12 HOURS...8 INCHES/24 HOURS)...COMBINATION OF GUSTY 25-35 MPH WINDS CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL CERTAINTLY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN WATCH HEADLINE...THOUGH IF ADDITIONAL 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EXPECTED SCENARIO WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER UPGRADING TO WARNING/ADVISORY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RATZER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks good for Gaylord! Possibly heading up Sunday Morning for 2 days of riding the trails. Time for a road trip myself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm gonna eat a good dryslot and get a 1/2 inch for the team. Chicago and MKE most def are due. Best deform and forcing smack dab over chi-town. Winds look solid. 6-10 inches on the table for the shore line. Solid event. Enjoy winter guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 just issued: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1059 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012 ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON ON THE WAY... .A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND 6 AM...THEN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE INDIANA BORDER TOWARD MIDDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-70. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS A RESULT...DRIVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS. ILZ038-043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-112100- /O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0001.120112T1500Z-120113T1500Z/ MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE- DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER- CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...CHAMPAIGN... URBANA...DANVILLE...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON... MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE 1059 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 9 AM...THEN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER BY MIDDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. * WIND...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND ICY ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES AND WINDS INCREASE...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ex past facto, but the 6z GFS ensembles remained wetter overall than the OP. It'll be interesting to see if the 12z runs continues that theme. 72 hour totals through 6z Saturday. Looks like the trend continued with the 12Z.. .50+ Along the Lakeshore counties in WI/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Does anyone think IWX will extend WSW further south to include the entire forecast area??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS stinks, but it's more in tune with climo. I cannot think of an accumulating snow event for YYZ unfolding like how the RGEM/NAM depict. Normally I would agree with this, but NWS Buffalo in their morning AFD discounted the 00z run of the GFS last night because it's simply too progressive in a complex atmospheric situation in the Great Lakes region. When you have the NAM, RGEM, UKMET and ECMWF all indicating a stronger secondary wave, it's hard to side with the GFS. Today's 12z ECMWF will be an important run. Either the GFS will score a major coup or it will bust big time (or be forced to catch up with the other models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Trends continues to improve, stronger, wetter, south, longer. Of particular note is the duration which is key to realizing heavy amounts without a real moisture connection. When you combine the dynamics of a rapidly developing low, deep DGZ, duration and increasing model consensus on .5+ QPF (omg at the 0z gfs mean)......my initial call was too low. Revised IMBY call for 8.5". 99% chance that magnificent Illini win is influencing my call...still smiling. again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Pretty remarkable how this storm has unfolded. Two days ago I was barely paying attention to models, expecting a few bursts of snowshowers following the passage of the front. You've gotta love these dynamic, quickly-developing situations as much as the bombs that are decently modeled a week out. The trend sure has been our friend here in northeast IL with this one. What a surprise and great way to kick off the extremely stunted 2012 winter season. I'm glad we've FINALLY got fall behind us. I don't post regularly here, mostly for storms & threats (I do regularly lurk), but I still can't get over that my first post wasn't until mid-January this season. Bring on winter! Yeah fall overstayed its welcome. Fall has lasted so long that plants and trees think it's spring already! Buds have been reportedly popped open and tulips are coming up! Boy are they in for a shock! Bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 again. LOL that win had be going what the heck...... anyway I'm still thinking IMBY 2-3" but I wouldn't be shocked to see higher than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 again. It's probably a little too high, but I do like my location for the time being. Let it ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Although some of this is rain in Ohio... nice widespread event basically everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Barring something kooky from the 12z Euro, I think I'll ride these calls. Maybe a bit conservative in spots, but I'm not jumping on the wet NAM...model consensus rules. IND: 1-3" LAF: 2-4" IKK: 3-5" ORD: 5-7" MDW: 6-8" MKE: 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 ARW giving Alek lots of love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol DTX GRIDS says 2-6" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol DTX GRIDS says 2-6" here. old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Barring something kooky from the 12z Euro, I think I'll ride these calls. Maybe a bit conservative in spots, but I'm not jumping on the wet NAM...model consensus rules. IND: 1-3" LAF: 2-4" IKK: 3-5" ORD: 5-7" MDW: 6-8" MKE: 6-8" I would agree.. Thought I think IND should be T-2".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I would agree.. Thought I think IND should be T-2".. Trace? Nah, inch at minimum. Everything I see agrees with that thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 http://weather.gov/s...age=wv&hours=24 love watching the vort crawl down the rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hoosier will be amending his call for LAF Good call Nostradamus. I'll bump to 3-5" given slightly higher qpf. The million dollar question continues to be ratios but I'm playing it safe and going with an event average of 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Good call Nostradamus. I'll bump to 3-5" given slightly higher qpf. The million dollar question continues to be ratios but I'm playing it safe and going with an event average of 15:1 that's what i'm using as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Good call Nostradamus. I'll bump to 3-5" given slightly higher qpf. The million dollar question continues to be ratios but I'm playing it safe and going with an event average of 15:1 What are you thinking for Marion, Hoosier??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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