dmc76 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 jeez I don't know what it's going to take to get a snowstorm this winter. While the pattern going forward seems better, you just got a hope we get snow because I'm sick of seeing green grass and Dave Philips saying "this is evidence of global warming" Hes an idiot then. Below normal snowfalls happen. Its just one of those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hes an idiot then. Below normal snowfalls happen. Its just one of those years. He just want's to bring up the point everytime that the general trend is for winters to be getting less cold and snowy due to AGW (which I don't believe in) when in reality the reason why the pattern has been so horrible is because of the factors (teleconnections) that are making it this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 jeez I don't know what it's going to take to get a snowstorm this winter. While the pattern going forward seems better, you just got a hope we get snow because I'm sick of seeing green grass and Dave Philips saying "this is evidence of global warming" I will say that this last cold snap really "ungreened" the grass lol. We had a dusting of snow on the ground but nowhere near enough to cover the grass from the cold/winds, and I noticed today how relatively brown everything seemed to get. Step 1 towards a back-end loaded winter And F*** Dave Phillips. Cant stand when it can snow its brains out but the second you get below normal snow its "GW". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hes an idiot then. Below normal snowfalls happen. Its just one of those years. Yup. If every year were above normal, than normal wouldnt be normal! I posted this in another thread- the running average the last 4 years at DTW is 62.6", some 22 inches above the longterm avg. If DTW went completely snowless in 2011-12 (already 6.7" too late) AND 2012-13, in the spring of 2013 the running 6-year avg would STILL be an inch above normal. Obviously going snowless will never/has never happen here, so by Mr. Phillips math, we are seeing evidence of Global Cooling in Detroit, while a short drive northeast they are experiencing Global Warming in Toronto. Freaky, isnt it!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I will say that this last cold snap really "ungreened" the grass lol. We had a dusting of snow on the ground but nowhere near enough to cover the grass from the cold/winds, and I noticed today how relatively brown everything seemed to get. Step 1 towards a back-end loaded winter And F*** Dave Phillips. Cant stand when it can snow its brains out but the second you get below normal snow its "GW". well said! Drinks on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I will say that this last cold snap really "ungreened" the grass lol. We had a dusting of snow on the ground but nowhere near enough to cover the grass from the cold/winds, and I noticed today how relatively brown everything seemed to get. Step 1 towards a back-end loaded winter And F*** Dave Phillips. Cant stand when it can snow its brains out but the second you get below normal snow its "GW". :clap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol.. sad when step one in january is loosing the green grass finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol.. sad when step one in january is loosing the green grass finally Im starting to like your odds on your bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Im starting to like your odds on your bet... I'll give you a week to get in on the easy money from timmy with me. Zero talk about the GFS tonight.. can't be good or nobody looks at it or wants to admit to it this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'll give you a week to get in on the easy money from timmy with me. Zero talk about the GFS tonight.. can't be good or nobody looks at it or wants to admit to it this far out. I will have to think about it. lol No talk, no good! This is turning into a very special year for the wrong reasons sort of like the Lions 0-16 season in 2008. When the Lions hit 0-8 you knew there was shot. Thats what Im feeling right now. same feeling. NOT GOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 gfs was a flush it down the toilet ugly baby abortion. Nice enough of it though to throw me a 40 degree day on my birthday jan 19th with 0.14" of QPF the whole run on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol Sweet no cold air... Awesome. Siked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I will have to think about it. lol No talk, no good! This is turning into a very special year for the wrong reasons sort of like the Lions 0-16 season in 2008. When the Lions hit 0-8 you knew there was shot. Thats what Im feeling right now. same feeling. NOT GOOD I cant tell if youre being serious or sarcastic lol. The lights at the end of the tunnel. Why no ones talking about tonights GFS, I dont know. The cold is coming per models. qpf is utterly worthless in the longrange. Show trends for cold coming, thats all you can ask for, qpf, clippers, cutters, etc work themselves out in the shorter range. For instance, the op GFS has DTW getting just 0.34" qpf (all snow) but the GFS ensemble mean has us between 1-1.25" (again, likely all snow). Lions is really a poor comparison imo. For Detroit to get the least snowy winter on record they have to get 6 inches or less of snow in the next 3+ months with the pattern expected to turn more wintry by mid-late Jan, and not to mention we are one of the prime spots in a Nina for above normal precip. Ie, record low snow not happening. Even if we end up below normal snow, chances of it being in top 20 low snow territory is extremely low, it would be more of the below normal variety that will get lost in the "non-extreme" portion of the weather books (ie the 30-50" winters). If there is something special about this year, it will be that this mild start will be long forgotten come April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 gfs was a flush it down the toilet ugly baby abortion. Nice enough of it though to throw me a 40 degree day on my birthday jan 19th with 0.14" of QPF the whole run on top. Hmm, looks more wintry than that for the 19th. The 18th is mild than a new arctic air mass comes plowing in. Down near 10° in Milwaukee late in the day and some snow! This ain't happening without a negative NAO! GFS is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Only thing special about this winter so far is no shoveling or any salt on the roads yet once. Pattern smattern change.. until ic snow on the ground I don't care what changes look to be in the offering. It has been a sucktastic start to the first half of winter and days are getting longer faster than the cold misters can find excuses how this winter won't be an abortion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Idk...really...this whole pattern is like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 DTX still kinda gives us some hope ... IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANGE IS ON THE WAY MUCH FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED. THE STRENGTHENING WEST PACIFIC JET THAT HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES IS NOW READILY APPARENT BETWEEN 30-40N ON HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MID-WEEK STORM NEXT WEEK IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF ENERGY EMANATING FROM THIS 180KT JET HAVING AN OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN UNITED STATES AROUND D7. FOR NOW...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH THE NWP GUIDANCE WILL SURELY GRAPPLE WITH STRENGTH AND PHASING ISSUES FOR MANY RUNS TO COME. FINALLY...IT`S WORTH MENTIONING THAT DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT ADDITIONAL ENERGY APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WILL AGGRESSIVELY FORCE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING INTO ALASKA AND THUS DEALING A BLOW TO THE PV THAT HAS BEEN A DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION TO DATE THIS WINTER. SUCH A DISPLACEMENT OF THE ALASKAN PV COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM TO EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER HUDSON BAY WOULD REPRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY TO EVENTUALLY USHER IN SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE WINTER- LIKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 DTX still kinda gives us some hope ... IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANGE IS ON THE WAY MUCH FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED. THE STRENGTHENING WEST PACIFIC JET THAT HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES IS NOW READILY APPARENT BETWEEN 30-40N ON HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MID-WEEK STORM NEXT WEEK IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF ENERGY EMANATING FROM THIS 180KT JET HAVING AN OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN UNITED STATES AROUND D7. FOR NOW...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH THE NWP GUIDANCE WILL SURELY GRAPPLE WITH STRENGTH AND PHASING ISSUES FOR MANY RUNS TO COME. FINALLY...IT`S WORTH MENTIONING THAT DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT ADDITIONAL ENERGY APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WILL AGGRESSIVELY FORCE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING INTO ALASKA AND THUS DEALING A BLOW TO THE PV THAT HAS BEEN A DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION TO DATE THIS WINTER. SUCH A DISPLACEMENT OF THE ALASKAN PV COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM TO EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER HUDSON BAY WOULD REPRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY TO EVENTUALLY USHER IN SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE WINTER- LIKE. Sounds like some slight exaggeration in the bolded section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Sounds like some slight exaggeration in the bolded section We will see man.. IDK..let mother nature do what ever she wants to.. We cant change nothing so as I like to say "take it and like it", lol with that said, GN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 doomed from the start when a ohio weenie started the thread.. guess they need 14 threads to discuss in. kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 doomed from the start when a ohio weenie started the thread.. guess they need 14 threads to discuss in. kidding. I've got a bad feeling that this is going to end up being an EC bomb. The Ohio guys can discuss how much they are going to get with the throwback from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 jeez I don't know what it's going to take to get a snowstorm this winter. While the pattern going forward seems better, you just got a hope we get snow because I'm sick of seeing green grass and Dave Philips saying "this is evidence of global warming" Funny thing is that as recently as 4-5 years ago, David Phillips would be the first to point out that everytime extreme weather is experienced, it is not a manifestation of global warming. Eg, how would then explain the snowless winters of the 50s or heatwaves of the 30s, etc. That being said, if we have another record breaking, or near record breaking snowless winter, I'll be open to suggestions about GW for the first time in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Funny thing is that as recently as 4-5 years ago, David Phillips would be the first to point out that everytime extreme weather is experienced, it is not a manifestation of global warming. Eg, how would then explain the snowless winters of the 50s or heatwaves of the 30s, etc. That being said, if we have another record breaking, or near record breaking snowless winter, I'll be open to suggestions about GW for the first time in my life. I should clarify that I've always been "open" to the possibility of GW, whether anthropogenic or not, but have never accepted it as a probability or certitude. I'll at least have to reevaluate that stance if this winter is a dog's breakfast, in tandem with other evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hes an idiot then. Below normal snowfalls happen. Its just one of those years. He's actually quite learned. Given his past reservations about using isolated examples as evidence of climate change, I'm guessing he's changed his position based on something more concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 He just want's to bring up the point everytime that the general trend is for winters to be getting less cold and snowy due to AGW (which I don't believe in) when in reality the reason why the pattern has been so horrible is because of the factors (teleconnections) that are making it this way. Is it possible AGW/GW causes the teleconnections to fluctuate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I've got a bad feeling that this is going to end up being an EC bomb. The Ohio guys can discuss how much they are going to get with the throwback from the storm. Trust me, this ohio guy (who has yet to see 2" of snow this season), has no illusions of just how bad it is and how bad it will most likely end up. I'm also not one to buy into the theory that a pattern change is coming simply because odds favor it in the same way odds favor a blind squirrel finding a nut...yea yea i know, we always have that elusive stratospheric warming event to gather around, maybe that'll prove a more reliable indicator than enso has. We have about a 6 week window left where I still give a crap whether it snows or not and already the first week and a half of that looks like more fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Is this a storm thread or the AGW/debbie downer/winter cancel crowd thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 DTX still kinda gives us some hope ... IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANGE IS ON THE WAY MUCH FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED. THE STRENGTHENING WEST PACIFIC JET THAT HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES IS NOW READILY APPARENT BETWEEN 30-40N ON HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MID-WEEK STORM NEXT WEEK IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF ENERGY EMANATING FROM THIS 180KT JET HAVING AN OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN UNITED STATES AROUND D7. FOR NOW...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH THE NWP GUIDANCE WILL SURELY GRAPPLE WITH STRENGTH AND PHASING ISSUES FOR MANY RUNS TO COME. FINALLY...IT`S WORTH MENTIONING THAT DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT ADDITIONAL ENERGY APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WILL AGGRESSIVELY FORCE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING INTO ALASKA AND THUS DEALING A BLOW TO THE PV THAT HAS BEEN A DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION TO DATE THIS WINTER. SUCH A DISPLACEMENT OF THE ALASKAN PV COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM TO EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER HUDSON BAY WOULD REPRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY TO EVENTUALLY USHER IN SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE WINTER- LIKE. They are spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I have a feeling this storm might just turn out to be an open wave. Lol JUst Kidding Will add though. It's not so unrealistic for the models to have trouble on these cut-offs from the SW. Seems to be the story of the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 So much optimism this morning..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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