dmc76 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Congrats to Milwaukee, Chicago, Green Bay, Northern Indiana, Northern Lower Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo and Toronto. Enjoy your snow!!! So basically everyone around us. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 a little omega showing up over the metro area, could really help drive ratios into overdrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What seems to be making this such a difficult nowcast event is knowing precisely where the low stalls, and where the deformation band is located at that time (which is where the highest amounts will be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Congrats to Milwaukee, Chicago, Green Bay, Northern Indiana, Northern Lower Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo and Toronto. Enjoy your snow!!! Not ideal for either of us, but I'm reasonably sure Detroit edges out Toronto in terms of snowfall from this storm. It's become apparent that the 0z runs were garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What seems to be making this such a difficult nowcast event is knowing precisely where the low stalls, and where the deformation band is located at that time (which is where the highest amounts will be). Given where things take start taking shape with the 500 vort and 700/850 lows, agreement that best position for pivot/defo snows will be somewhere in the vicinty of of NE illinois, far Northern Indiana, Western Michigan and Southeast Wisconsin....possibly right over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Given where things take start taking shape with the 500 vort and 700/850 lows, agreement that best position for pivot/defo snows will be somewhere in the vicinty of of NE illinois, far Northern Indiana, Western Michigan and Southeast Wisconsin....possibly right over the lake. Well that sure would be a waste of the glorious snow....haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nice better run for Detroit fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nice better run for Detroit fixed Need the low to move a bit further east! With the high ratios and the bands barely moving, someone is going to do real well with this baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z NAM progresses the snow band just a bit faster through eastern Iowa, so qpf has dropped a smidge. However, that puts both the NAM and GFS in the 0.30-0.35" range so up to 4 inches looks possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Need the low to move a bit further east! With the high ratios and the bands barely moving, someone is going to do real well with this baby. 6-7" is out of the question. Are target is 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Spoke too soon. Rapidly deepening upper low with a vorticity within the circulation that is really tight forces an area of enhanced H7 RH/omega over the Apps to rotate NNW back in southern Ontario. Honestly, at 30 hours I didn't think we'd be able to pull it off. lol/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 can't wait for the clownage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well that sure would be a waste of the glorious snow....haha If this were to occur, there could be some wicked snowfall rates downwind of the pivot as lake enhancement, which I suspect will happen regardless if it actually crosses the lake or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nice bump in snowfall here from the NAM...up to 0.39". Hopefully the rest of the guidance follows so I can bump my call. 0.56" for IKK, where I'm heading tonight. Sweetness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If this were to occur, there could be some wicked snowfall rates downwind of the pivot as lake enhancement, which I suspect will happen regardless if it actually crosses the lake or not. Favored lake areas along the southern end are looking at a nice 1-2 punch, I have to imagine foot plus amounts are possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nice bump in snowfall here from the NAM...up to 0.39". Hopefully the rest of the guidance follows so I can bump my call. 0.56" for IKK, where I'm heading tonight. Sweetness. Good stuff The NAM and Euro both have me up around .60 which should fluff nicely with 12-15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 some maps to watch for the day Love the look of that cold, going to be wild going from 50s to heavy wind driven snow in a day. LOVE setups like this around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If this were to occur, there could be some wicked snowfall rates downwind of the pivot as lake enhancement, which I suspect will happen regardless if it actually crosses the lake or not. Not mby, so I don't investigate it too thoroughly, but that was my thinking as well when looking at the NAM. Might have to change my jackpot zone to SBN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z NAM continues the trend being wetter around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 LOVE setups like this around here. this is a bit of an ass backwards storm, but going from 50s this afternoon to windchills near zero with snow in a little over 24 hrs is pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Good stuff The NAM and Euro both have me up around .60 which should fluff nicely with 12-15:1 ratios. Good consensus closing in on those kind of amounts. Definitely nice to see. What a way to make up for lost time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Geez, a met from CLTV/WGN posted an image from the RPM model showing wind gusts tomorrow evening between 35-40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Geez, a met from CLTV/WGN posted an image from the RPM model showing wind gusts tomorrow evening between 35-40mph LOT has gust to 35 in my point so, i guess that's the range we'll be dealing with. Going to get legit for a time tomorrow evening. EDIT: We're going to knocking on the door of B-word criteria if that materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol at the gradient on the NAM around here. .5 QPF in La crosse to basically a dusting here. Thats 35 miles. Although the SREF is somewhat more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 LOT has gust to 35 in my point so, i guess that's the range we'll be dealing with. Going to get legit for a time tomorrow evening. IWX mentions poss blizzard conditions tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 IWX mentions poss blizzard conditions tomorrow night. I just edited my post, i believe blizzard criteria is sustained or regular gusts over 35 with substantial falling or blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I just edited my post, i believe blizzard criteria is sustained or regular gusts over 35 with substantial falling or blowing snow. 3 hours of more of sustained winds (or frequent gusts) at or above 35 mph, visibility less than 1/4 of a mile and falling or blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 LOT Snowfall Map... Your call is looking good Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I ddl is lurking. What are your thoughts in La Crosse, you really seem to be riding the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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