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January 12-14 Potential storm


dilly84

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What seems to be making this such a difficult nowcast event is knowing precisely where the low stalls, and where the deformation band is located at that time (which is where the highest amounts will be).

Given where things take start taking shape with the 500 vort and 700/850 lows, agreement that best position for pivot/defo snows will be somewhere in the vicinty of of NE illinois, far Northern Indiana, Western Michigan and Southeast Wisconsin....possibly right over the lake.

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Given where things take start taking shape with the 500 vort and 700/850 lows, agreement that best position for pivot/defo snows will be somewhere in the vicinty of of NE illinois, far Northern Indiana, Western Michigan and Southeast Wisconsin....possibly right over the lake.

Well that sure would be a waste of the glorious snow....haha

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If this were to occur, there could be some wicked snowfall rates downwind of the pivot as lake enhancement, which I suspect will happen regardless if it actually crosses the lake or not.

Favored lake areas along the southern end are looking at a nice 1-2 punch, I have to imagine foot plus amounts are possible there.

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Nice bump in snowfall here from the NAM...up to 0.39". Hopefully the rest of the guidance follows so I can bump my call.

0.56" for IKK, where I'm heading tonight. Sweetness.

Good stuff

The NAM and Euro both have me up around .60 which should fluff nicely with 12-15:1 ratios.

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If this were to occur, there could be some wicked snowfall rates downwind of the pivot as lake enhancement, which I suspect will happen regardless if it actually crosses the lake or not.

Not mby, so I don't investigate it too thoroughly, but that was my thinking as well when looking at the NAM. Might have to change my jackpot zone to SBN.

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Geez, a met from CLTV/WGN posted an image from the RPM model showing wind gusts tomorrow evening between 35-40mph

LOT has gust to 35 in my point so, i guess that's the range we'll be dealing with. Going to get legit for a time tomorrow evening.

EDIT: We're going to knocking on the door of B-word criteria if that materializes.

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