dmc76 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Don't forget that a good chunk of that precip from SE Mich and points east is all rain from tonight. That run would only be ~0.15" of liquid equivalent available for snow at DTW. It's higher then that.. 0.23-0.28" Still yields a 2-4" for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol'd so much seeing the 6z NAM... clown maps had 7-10", as did BUFKIT. Even the GFS was over 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looking like about 1" for MBY, which is fine. Just glad to see everyone get some snow and hopefully calm down a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 03z is pretty jacked for much of this area. Shows 7" just east of here. My 2-3" call from earlier would really end up low-balling it if that were to work out. Will make a final call tonight, but I'm thinking more like 4-5" now for this area. DVN only going with 2-4" despite the WSW, so they're staying conservative as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 03z is pretty jacked for much of this area. Shows 7" just east of here. My 2-3" call from earlier would really end up low-balling it if that were to work out. Will make a final call tonight, but I'm thinking more like 4-5" now for this area. DVN only going with 2-4" despite the WSW, so they're staying conservative as well. Situation still seems pretty fluid, I like where i sit and am going bullish but there is certainly time/room for shifts, I think we'll see offices ramp up or down after the 12z models. worth watching http://weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol'd so much seeing the 6z NAM... clown maps had 7-10", as did BUFKIT. Even the GFS was over 5" After loosing BOTH my PCs last night to malware infection (compliments of Twister Data) im virtually blind and struggling with the iPhone. Was the 6z showing a healthy dry slot also. I believe your in the Toledo area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 FWIW i haven't had issues with twister data...but my work computer is like fort knox and i use a mac at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachary Lassiter Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thoughts from the folks at inaccurate weather http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/dramatic-weather-changes-with-snow-and-harsh-cold/60120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 some maps to watch for the day Love the look of that cold, going to be wild going from 50s to heavy wind driven snow in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Trends continues to improve, stronger, wetter, south, longer. Of particular note is the duration which is key to realizing heavy amounts without a real moisture connection. When you combine the dynamics of a rapidly developing low, deep DGZ, duration and increasing model consensus on .5+ QPF (omg at the 0z gfs mean)......my initial call was too low. Revised IMBY call for 8.5". 99% chance that magnificent Illini win is influencing my call...still smiling. Chicago record-low-season-snow watch cancel. And its not yet mid-January. This is EXACTLY why I had been harping that all these end-of-season predictions (for various places) made by many on here were way, way, WAY too soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 After loosing BOTH my PCs last night to malware infection (compliments of Twister Data) im virtually blind and struggling with the iPhone. Was the 6z showing a healthy dry slot also. I believe your in the Toledo area? I'm in Bowling Green, which is about 20 miles south of TOL/TDZ NAM screwed SEMI (specifically DTW) with <2", while NWOH got about 6-10. The BUFKIT warehouse cobb method put out about 8-9" where I'm sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Chicago record-low-season-snow watch cancel. And its not yet mid-January. This is EXACTLY why I had been harping that all these end-of-season predictions (for various places) made by many on here were way, way, WAY too soon! There's always a possibility they make a run at it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's higher then that.. 0.23-0.28" Still yields a 2-4" for the area Looks like a very long duration event here, with the two L's. DTX going with light rain tonight through late tomorrow afternoon, mixing with then changing to snow in th evening, snow continuing all night then numerous snow showers Friday. They say a widespread 2-4" snow over the 36-hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just a quick map I put together with my thoughts. High snow ratios and the deep dendritic growth zone should be quite efficient in snow production across Eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana and Western Michigan. My 5-9" range could be a little underdone in some areas. Why the abrupt end in eastern MI? Or is it just bc its the northeast portion of your map is not your main concentration area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like a very long duration event here, with the two L's. DTX going with light rain tonight through late tomorrow afternoon, mixing with then changing to snow in th evening, snow continuing all night then numerous snow showers Friday. They say a widespread 2-4" snow over the 36-hour period. Sounds about Right. Nice 3" event is fine by me. I said it the other day With this kind of pattern change, there will be several shots of 1-3" type snows. There's a clipper shot late weekend for another couple inches. Next 3-4 Weeks will get pretty entertaining around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm in Bowling Green, which is about 20 miles south of TOL/TDZ NAM screwed SEMI (specifically DTW) with <2", while NWOH got about 6-10. The BUFKIT warehouse cobb method put out about 8-9" where I'm sitting right now. If something like that happened, Id be mega P*SSED, even though the ground would be white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 aahhhhhhhh, winter...welcome to the MW. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 There's always a possibility they make a run at it. Lol Yeah, there is. Theres also a possibility that snowmageddon hits in March and they get the snowiest winter on record. Neither is a likelihood. I dont care if a winter pattern NEVER settles in this year, your chances of going at least 3 months (with likely above normal precip no less, ala Nina) without logging that amount of snow is so slim its not even worth mentioning until at the earliest late February. Actually, Im kinda ticked that the heavier snowfall will be over that region, even if we do get several inches. But you cant control the weather, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This south trend has to stop. The 6z GFS did not look so good compared to past runs, but I suppose I shouldn't get caught up on each individual run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 she's a beaut clark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 aahhhhhhhh, winter...welcome to the MW. . . Yes, welcome, and PLEASE...stay a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah, there is. Theres also a possibility that snowmageddon hits in March and they get the snowiest winter on record. Neither is a likelihood. I dont care if a winter pattern NEVER settles in this year, your chances of going at least 3 months (with likely above normal precip no less, ala Nina) without logging that amount of snow is so slim its not even worth mentioning until at the earliest late February. Actually, Im kinda ticked that the heavier snowfall will be over that region, even if we do get several inches. But you cant control the weather, oh well. Will all finish about 10-15" below average when all done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Will all finish about 10" below average when all done Id actually rather finish like that (approx 32-33") and get a sustained cold spell that sustains a snowcover, than finish at 50" but never hold a snowcover for more than 5 days or so with a Nina-like temp roller coaster. Its hard to believe weve logged almost 6" so far, doesnt feel like it at all. So now lets get some snow and make it stay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This south trend has to stop. The 6z GFS did not look so good compared to past runs, but I suppose I shouldn't get caught up on each individual run. Come on that is what we do here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm in Bowling Green, which is about 20 miles south of TOL/TDZ NAM screwed SEMI (specifically DTW) with <2", while NWOH got about 6-10. The BUFKIT warehouse cobb method put out about 8-9" where I'm sitting right now. Nice system it looks like for us. Idk about these big numbers but looking at the setup I'd take the probably 3-4" for NW Ohio. Btw the NAM is also really bringing the wind in as well, 30 mph for some parts of the storm. Talk about bringing the heat. However its numbers are way higher than others so I'm a little concerned about the strength it's predicting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This south trend has to stop. The 6z GFS did not look so good compared to past runs, but I suppose I shouldn't get caught up on each individual run. 12z NAM might be a hair south of 6z but nothing earth shattering. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Some folks in WI and MI will do good but it seems like it will be more localized than widespread. Either way it's going to finally look like winter out there with good ratio snows for the first time and wind. Bit too far east here to see anything worth noting. Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Congrats to Milwaukee, Chicago, Green Bay, Northern Indiana, Northern Lower Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo and Toronto. Enjoy your snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This is going to be a good run for Chicagoland folks 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NAM looks like a glorified frontal passage here. Good luck to those to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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