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January 12-14 Potential storm


dilly84

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Nah, with the improving depth of the trough, lake moisture and longevity, I think LAF can win some snow coin. Probably end up on the lower ends of the range, but you can't discout a higher total.

Lake moisture is kinda hard to attain here, unless winds at all levels are due north for an appreciable amount of time. I can only think of one instance that happened, but it was LES related...and very much a rarity. Trust me though, you'll get kudos if we sneak into that range...but I think 2-3, 2-4" looks solid at this point.

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Lake moisture is kinda hard to attain here, unless winds at all levels are due north for an appreciable amount of time. I can only think of one instance that happened, but it was LES related...and very much a rarity. Trust me though, you'll get kudos if we sneak into that range...but I think 2-3, 2-4" looks solid at this point.

Winds look to have too much of a westerly component for lake moisture to make it here.

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Regarding ratios, GHD had much stronger winds so presumably the shattering wouldn't be quite as big of a factor in this event. But I'm not really sure at what point it becomes an issue.

GHD was unique in the fact that there was a very deep DGZ (actually two of them in some areas) and dendrite shattering aloft likely aided in a mass seeding of the lower levels (and lower DGZ). The result was very efficient precipitation production with small flake size. The fact that a lot of areas were 14/15:1 or better with those extreme winds is a testament to that.

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0z ECMWF:

LSE:

THU 06Z 12-JAN  -5.0	-7.2	1008	  69	  99	0.03	 538	 532  
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -6.6   -11.1	1007	  69	  99	0.11	 533	 528  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -7.2   -13.9	1006	  67	 100	0.14	 531	 526  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -8.9   -14.8	1008	  71	 100	0.10	 530	 524  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -9.9   -13.4	1009	  74	  98	0.07	 531	 524  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN -10.0   -14.1	1012	  72	  97	0.03	 533	 524

MSN:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -3.1	-6.6	1000	  78	  99	0.09	 532	 531  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.6	-9.4	1001	  78	 100	0.18	 529	 528  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.4   -10.4	1003	  79	  99	0.15	 528	 526  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.8   -13.6	1007	  81	  98	0.17	 530	 525  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.6   -13.6	1011	  66	  95	0.03	 534	 525

MKE:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.0	-2.9	 997	  89	  99	0.04	 533	 535  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -0.5	-5.5	 996	  90	 100	0.26	 529	 532  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -3.4	-8.0	 998	  83	  99	0.19	 526	 528  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.8   -12.6	1003	  80	 100	0.15	 528	 525  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.2   -14.2	1009	  67	  99	0.09	 532	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.5   -14.0	1014	  72	  70	0.01	 534	 523

SBM:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.7	-2.7	 997	  90	  85	0.01	 533	 536  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -0.4	-5.5	 997	  88	  99	0.13	 530	 533  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -4.1	-8.5	 998	  82	  99	0.21	 527	 528  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -13.4	1003	  80	  98	0.18	 528	 526  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -14.9	1008	  66	  95	0.08	 531	 525

CID:

THU 06Z 12-JAN  -4.9	-5.7	1008	  61	  86	0.01	 540	 533  
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -7.9   -11.1	1009	  54	 100	0.07	 533	 526  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -8.0   -15.2	1008	  55	 100	0.09	 528	 522  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -8.5   -17.3	1009	  60	  99	0.08	 527	 520  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.1   -16.3	1010	  62	  97	0.05	 530	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.7   -14.5	1013	  64	  95	0.02	 533	 523

DVN:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -5.5	-8.0	1006	  67	 100	0.04	 534	 530  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.6   -13.4	1005	  66	 100	0.17	 529	 525  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -15.7	1007	  71	  99	0.11	 527	 522  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.9   -15.0	1008	  70	  98	0.07	 528	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.0   -14.2	1011	  71	  90	0.04	 532	 523  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -7.0   -12.4	1015	  62	  88	0.02	 536	 525

PIA:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -3.9    -5.0    1004	  67	 100    0.01	 536	 532   
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.5   -13.4    1005	  65	 100    0.13	 529	 525   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -7.6   -16.4    1007	  65	 100    0.11	 525	 520   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.0   -16.5    1008	  64	  98    0.05	 527	 521   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.5   -15.5    1011	  67	  90    0.03	 531	 522   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.2   -14.1    1014	  63	  86    0.02	 536	 525

ORD:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -1.1	-3.6	 998	  78	  93	0.06	 532	 533  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.0	-6.8	 998	  80	  98	0.14	 527	 529  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.1	-8.5	 999	  81	 100	0.19	 526	 526  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.3   -12.4	1004	  82	 100	0.15	 527	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.9   -14.2	1009	  68	  98	0.07	 532	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.6   -14.1	1015	  75	  88	0.02	 535	 524

MDW:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -0.9	-3.7	 998	  78	  87	0.06	 532	 533  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.2	-7.8	 998	  79	  99	0.12	 527	 528  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.1	-9.0	1000	  79	 100	0.17	 525	 525  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -12.4	1004	  81	 100	0.16	 527	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.9   -14.6	1010	  70	  98	0.07	 532	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.4   -14.6	1015	  73	  92	0.02	 536	 524

STL:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -3.4	-9.7	1008	  68	  99	0.04	 536	 529  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -4.2   -15.9	1009	  53	 100	0.11	 527	 520  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.3   -15.6	1011	  44	  52	0.02	 526	 517  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.2   -16.5	1012	  48	  97	0.01	 527	 518  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -16.8	1014	  55	  94	0.01	 533	 522

DEC:

THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.1   -13.5	1005	  66	 100	0.15	 529	 525  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -7.4   -16.6	1008	  62	 100	0.08	 525	 519  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.0   -16.5	1009	  64	  98	0.03	 525	 519  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.4   -16.4	1011	  63	  96	0.01	 530	 521  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -15.5	1015	  59	  88	0.02	 535	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.4   -13.7	1019	  61	  96	0.01	 538	 524

PAH:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.6	-2.0	1005	  88	  97	0.01	 540	 537  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.3   -12.0	1008	  55	  74	0.09	 529	 523  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.2   -12.6	1012	  44	  64	0.01	 527	 518

IND:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   5.2	 1.5	 999	  97	  86	0.05	 543	 543  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.1	-3.6	1000	  82	  98	0.05	 533	 533  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.4   -15.7	1005	  61	  99	0.06	 524	 520  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.1   -16.3	1006	  61	  98	0.04	 523	 518  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -16.3	1009	  61	  98	0.03	 526	 519  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.6   -16.1	1012	  54	  97	0.02	 532	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.7   -15.5	1017	  62	  97	0.03	 537	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.7   -13.3	1019	  64	  89	0.01	 538	 524

LAF:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.1	 0.6	 999	  94	  81	0.04	 541	 542  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -0.8	-4.5	1000	  74	  98	0.03	 532	 532  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.5   -14.3	1003	  68	 100	0.09	 524	 522  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.6   -14.8	1004	  67	 100	0.08	 523	 520  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.1   -14.7	1007	  66	  98	0.07	 526	 521  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.4   -15.2	1011	  63	  98	0.03	 532	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.5   -15.2	1017	  72	  93	0.03	 537	 524

VPZ:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.0	-2.9	 998	  85	  83	0.08	 532	 534  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.0	-9.1	 999	  77	 100	0.06	 526	 527  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.9   -10.0	 999	  77	 100	0.13	 524	 524  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.4   -12.3	1004	  82	 100	0.19	 526	 523  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.8   -14.1	1009	  72	  97	0.07	 531	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.7   -14.5	1015	  74	  94	0.04	 535	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.4   -13.4	1017	  78	  38	0.01	 535	 522

OKK:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.4	 1.8	 998	  96	  97	0.01	 543	 544  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.5	-2.0	 998	  85	  70	0.07	 533	 535  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.7   -13.2	1002	  69	  98	0.07	 525	 523  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.6   -14.8	1003	  69	 100	0.08	 522	 519  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.2   -14.6	1006	  68	  99	0.08	 525	 521  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.0   -15.1	1010	  60	  94	0.03	 531	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.4   -14.7	1016	  72	  91	0.03	 536	 524

FWA:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.9	 2.7	 998	  97	  85	0.01	 543	 545  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   3.4	-0.5	 996	  93	  92	0.06	 535	 538  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.1	-9.4	 999	  76	  92	0.05	 527	 528  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -13.6	1000	  69	 100	0.05	 521	 520  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.7   -11.6	1002	  73	  99	0.09	 524	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.3   -12.2	1007	  64	  94	0.03	 529	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.5   -13.1	1013	  71	  94	0.02	 534	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.8   -13.3	1016	  72	  84	0.01	 536	 524

HAO:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   5.6	 2.5	 999	  97	  98	0.02	 546	 547  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   7.4	-0.5	 998	  85	  92	0.04	 536	 538  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -2.9   -12.7	1003	  63	  85	0.09	 525	 523  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.5   -15.5	1006	  55	  97	0.01	 521	 517  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.7   -16.1	1008	  53	  97	0.01	 523	 517  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.8   -15.6	1011	  50	  96	0.01	 531	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.9   -15.2	1016	  62	  99	0.02	 535	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -5.7   -14.3	1018	  64	  96	0.02	 538	 524

DAY:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.6	 2.9	 999	  98	  91	0.03	 546	 547  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   6.4	-0.2	 997	  89	  79	0.04	 537	 540  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -2.5   -10.3	1001	  77	  87	0.10	 527	 526  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.8   -16.1	1005	  57	  97	0.01	 520	 517  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.8   -16.3	1006	  57	  99	0.03	 522	 518  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.5   -15.5	1010	  52	  88	0.02	 530	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.4   -15.2	1015	  62	  99	0.01	 534	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.6   -13.6	1017	  67	  88	0.01	 537	 523

CMH:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   6.5	 1.0	 997	  95	  88	0.05	 540	 543  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.4	-3.5	 998	  96	  98	0.12	 531	 533  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.0   -16.0	1004	  57	  97	0.04	 520	 516  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.5   -15.6	1005	  52	 100	0.02	 520	 516  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.0   -14.9	1008	  51	  96	0.04	 528	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.5   -14.7	1014	  54	 100	0.00	 534	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -5.9   -13.0	1016	  64	  98	0.01	 535	 523

TDZ:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   5.3	 1.8	 994	  93	  92	0.02	 539	 543  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.6	-3.4	 995	  93	  87	0.04	 530	 534  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -11.6	 998	  65	  95	0.02	 520	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.4   -11.6	 998	  70	  99	0.06	 520	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -2.7	-9.4	1002	  70	  97	0.10	 527	 526  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -2.8   -12.2	1009	  74	  98	0.04	 531	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -5.2   -14.2	1013	  63	  95	0.03	 534	 524

CLE:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   6.0	 2.5	 995	  92	  97	0.05	 541	 546  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   5.7	-1.5	 995	  93	  83	0.07	 533	 537  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -4.4   -11.6	 999	  66	  93	0.10	 522	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.8   -14.7	1001	  62	 100	0.01	 518	 517  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.7   -10.3	1002	  70	  99	0.09	 524	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -3.6   -11.2	1008	  68	 100	0.04	 531	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -3.9   -13.5	1011	  75	  99	0.05	 533	 524  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -6.8   -15.5	1016	  72	  51	0.03	 534	 522  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.7   -15.0	1018	  61	  35	0.01	 533	 519

MKG:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   0.8	 1.1	 998	  88	  65	0.00	 540	 542  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.5	-0.5	 995	  91	  96	0.04	 535	 539  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.2	-3.6	 993	  99	  99	0.15	 530	 535  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   1.0	-5.2	 992	  93	  99	0.13	 526	 532  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -1.1	-9.0	 997	  83	  99	0.13	 526	 528  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.1   -12.9	1004	  70	  97	0.10	 529	 526  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.5   -14.1	1011	  72	  96	0.05	 533	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.8   -13.9	1015	  74	  28	0.01	 532	 520  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -6.3   -14.9	1017	  70	  51	0.01	 532	 518  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.4   -14.9	1018	  65	  46	0.01	 531	 517  
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -5.2   -14.6	1020	  67	  53	0.01	 532	 517  
SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -7.8   -14.3	1023	  73	  87	0.01	 532	 515

GRR:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.1	-0.6	 995	  98	  96	0.07	 536	 540  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   0.7	-3.8	 993	  99	  99	0.13	 530	 535  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -0.8	-4.9	 992	  96	  98	0.17	 525	 532  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.5	-7.5	 995	  91	  98	0.09	 525	 529  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.5   -12.1	1003	  72	  96	0.07	 528	 526  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.3   -14.2	1011	  73	 100	0.04	 532	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN -10.2   -12.9	1015	  79	  22	0.01	 533	 521

BTL:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.9	 1.9	 998	  93	  93	0.02	 542	 544  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   3.4	-0.2	 994	  96	  91	0.05	 536	 540  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   0.0	-4.2	 994	  94	  96	0.17	 529	 534  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -4.3	-5.8	 994	  84	  99	0.10	 524	 529  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.6	-6.8	 995	  93	  99	0.09	 524	 529  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -2.2   -11.4	1003	  72	  98	0.07	 528	 526  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.1   -13.7	1010	  75	  99	0.04	 533	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.5   -13.5	1015	  79	  34	0.01	 534	 522

ADG:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   5.0	 0.7	 994	  92	  85	0.04	 537	 542  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.3	-3.4	 995	  94	  87	0.09	 530	 534  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.3	-9.6	 997	  73	  99	0.02	 522	 525  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.1	-7.2	 996	  78	  99	0.08	 522	 526  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -1.2	-9.7	1001	  72	  92	0.09	 528	 527  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -3.6   -13.1	1009	  72	  98	0.03	 531	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.8   -13.6	1014	  66	  92	0.01	 534	 523

DTW:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.5	 1.6	 993	  96	  94	0.08	 539	 544  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.2	-1.9	 993	  95	  84	0.04	 531	 536  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -3.8	-8.0	 996	  75	  97	0.01	 523	 527  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.3	-8.6	 996	  75	  92	0.05	 522	 525  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN   0.1	-8.5	 999	  78	  99	0.10	 526	 527  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -3.3   -13.2	1008	  69	  97	0.03	 531	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.9   -14.3	1013	  62	  95	0.01	 533	 523

PHN:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.8	 1.7	 994	  97	  98	0.11	 540	 545  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   4.4	-0.4	 992	  96	  89	0.08	 533	 540  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -0.2	-4.7	 993	  85	  93	0.01	 526	 531  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -4.6	-7.7	 995	  73	  88	0.03	 522	 526  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -1.3	-8.5	 997	  78	  98	0.04	 525	 527  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.3   -13.6	1007	  68	  98	0.03	 529	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -7.3   -15.1	1012	  63	  86	0.01	 532	 523

YKF:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.1	 1.4	 997	  98	  91	0.03	 541	 544  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.2	-1.0	 994	  99	  98	0.10	 537	 541  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   2.6	-2.8	 992	  97	  90	0.07	 529	 536  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -4.7   -10.3	 995	  76	  96	0.08	 523	 527  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.1	-9.9	 996	  73	 100	0.08	 523	 526  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -3.5	-9.4	1001	  81	  98	0.07	 528	 527  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN -10.1   -15.0	1009	  75	  98	0.01	 530	 523  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN -11.9   -13.6	1014	  73	  66	0.01	 530	 520

YYZ:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.1	 0.3	 998	  96	  89	0.08	 542	 543  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.4	-0.3	 995	  97	 100	0.09	 538	 542  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   3.9	-1.5	 992	  95	  86	0.07	 530	 537  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -2.2	-8.5	 994	  80	 100	0.09	 523	 528  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -2.6   -10.3	 995	  71	  99	0.14	 522	 526  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -2.3	-9.0	1000	  82	  98	0.07	 527	 527  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.4   -13.8	1008	  73	  99	0.02	 529	 523  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN -10.6   -13.0	1013	  73	  84	0.01	 530	 520

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