A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Big snows coming. Alek's formula never fails. so jacked right now, what a game. Not going to get a lot of sleep tonight...going to be a zombie in the office at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Secondary fun I take it the Ukie shows good snows here again? I always think of dryslot as something during a storm. For us it would really be more of a break in the action (if it pans as shown). We get clipped by rain from the first L, then the secondary L is the wintry one. It will be snowing in WI a long time before it makes it to Detroit, but at the same time, it will be snowing in Detroit for a while once it gets here (not as heavily as WI though). We probably wont see the last flake til Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I take it the Ukie shows good snows here again? I always think of dryslot as something during a storm. For us it would really be more of a break in the action (if it pans as shown). We get clipped by rain from the first L, then the secondary L is the wintry one. It will be snowing in WI a long time before it makes it to Detroit, but at the same time, it will be snowing in Detroit for a while once it gets here (not as heavily as WI though). We probably wont see the last flake til Saturday. See my post about a page back and add another tenth of an inch for the last frame I excluded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I take it the Ukie shows good snows here again? I always think of dryslot as something during a storm. For us it would really be more of a break in the action (if it pans as shown). We get clipped by rain from the first L, then the secondary L is the wintry one. It will be snowing in WI a long time before it makes it to Detroit, but at the same time, it will be snowing in Detroit for a while once it gets here (not as heavily as WI though). We probably wont see the last flake til Saturday. The secondary helps our friends in Canada. Did not see the newest Ukie. We sniff some dry air on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Joe Bastardi Near blizzard conditions michigan Thur night into Friday and Friday in eastern and central new york behind wva to new england snow Like · · @BigJoeBastardi on Twitte · 7 minutes ago via Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Curious what the Euro will look like..I think it will fallow UKMET.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 See my post about a page back and add another tenth of an inch for the last frame I excluded i have a hard time reading that map...isnt it only like 0.25 in se mi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 i have a hard time reading that map...isnt it only like 0.25 in se mi? did you add all three up..should be around .60ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 i have a hard time reading that map...isnt it only like 0.25 in se mi? did you add all three up..should be around .60ish Yep, its about .45 shown there plus another tenth @ 72hr which I didn't post... so about .55" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yep, its about .45 shown there plus another tenth @ 72hr which I didn't post... so about .55" or so. duh sorry didnt add up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Im just loling..One of these models (big 3) is gonna fail big time. This is the year of 48 hour drastic swings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 UKMET: With the track of the 500 low and such that surface low track is alot more plausible then what the other two ( NAM/GFS ) are showing. Look at the 500 maps of Jan 78 and then the track of the surface low. Oh and NO this will not become a Jan 78. Keep dreaming. Nice thought though.. Ofcourse with that i do believe the track of the surface low may have even been a little further east ( or started further east as it passed close to Cleveland before going to Huron ) then what the UK/Euro shows. Not saying the UK/EURO track will be right or the GFS/NAM wrong. Just saying the UK/EURO makes better sense given past experience. Unfortunately there is not much else to go on as these type of systems seem to be rare. Ofcourse the 500 low etc could shift some as well still. See what the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 With the track of the 500 low and such that surface low track is alot more plausible then what the other two ( NAM/GFS ) are showing. Look at the 500 maps of Jan 78 and then the track of the surface low. Oh and NO this will not become a Jan 78. Keep dreaming. Nice thought though.. Ofcourse with that i do believe the track of the surface low may have even been a little further east ( or started further east as it passed close to Cleveland before going to Huron ) then what the UK/Euro shows. Not saying the UK/EURO track will be right or the GFS/NAM wrong. Just saying the UK/EURO makes better sense given past experience. Unfortunately there is not much else to go on as these type of systems seem to be rare. Ofcourse the 500 low etc could shift some as well still. See what the euro shows. I just can't believe how much inconsistency there's been here. 18z suite was terrible here, than the 0z NAM/GFS went south and gave me about 2-5", while the GGEM is awful here. Hopefully the ECM gives a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Feeling a little more confident, bumping my call to 2-3" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I just can't believe how much inconsistency there's been here. 18z suite was terrible here, than the 0z NAM/GFS went south and gave me about 2-5", while the GGEM is awful here. Hopefully the ECM gives a clue Its almost laughable. GFS vs NAM vs EURO vs UKIE vs Conventional wisdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Feeling a little more confident, bumping my call to 2-3" for LAF. What are you thinking for Marion, IN?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What are you thinking for Marion, IN?? Probably the same, 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Feeling a little more confident, bumping my call to 2-3" for LAF. Was just going to post that. I'll add an inch to the range though and go 2-4" since there aren't any temperature issues, ratios look decent and trends are not unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Forecast 0z NAM sounding from TwisterData at 36 hours. Note the seeder-feeder profile: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=578&sounding.y=290&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=00&fhour=36¶meter=RELV&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Was just going to post that. I'll add an inch to the range though and go 2-4" since there aren't any temperature issues, ratios look decent and trends are not unfavorable. Good, I like the agreement. I was going to throw the 4 in there, but thought...let's not get too crazy yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I just can't believe how much inconsistency there's been here. 18z suite was terrible here, than the 0z NAM/GFS went south and gave me about 2-5", while the GGEM is awful here. Hopefully the ECM gives a clue Well at THIS MOMENT the one thing they all ( GGEM/NAM/GFS ) do seem to agree on is with the 500 low and it's track. Atleast till it reaches Ohio. All of them have it passing over near the same spot as it crosses Indiana. More of a matter of surface features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NAM has a window late Thursday where the DGZ is about 300 mb deep around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Was just going to post that. I'll add an inch to the range though and go 2-4" since there aren't any temperature issues, ratios look decent and trends are not unfavorable. Me thinks IWX and IND won't be as bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachary Lassiter Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm kinda curious where the LES band will develop in this.... kinda new at this and having a hard time finding wind directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Me thinks IWX and IND won't be as bullish You could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NAM has a window late Thursday where the DGZ is about 300 mb deep around here. Kinda related, but I really know nothing regarding possible flake fracture due to wind. Is there a general criteria/range as to what speeds (how high) start having an effect on flakes? BTW, you got the measurements for this one. I'll be out of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I would probably go 4-8 with LAF area right now. lol, you be trollin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I would probably go 4-8 with LAF area right now. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol, you be trollin'. You'll be out of town, so snowfall automatically doubles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Kinda related, but I really know nothing regarding possible flake fracture due to wind. Is there a general criteria/range as to what speeds (how high) start having an effect on flakes? BTW, you got the measurements for this one. I'll be out of town. ahh 50-60kt 700 mb winds will rip things apart with no prob. doubt full this will be the case here though. I could be wrong. A case study needs to be done to determine exactly the prime conditions for shattering dentrites in mid flight EDIT..I might be failing here on the height Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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