snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Beautiful run. Toronto grabs 4-6+" With the storm digging further south its more amplified and stronger....very interesting. That's what I noticed. the H5 low tracks just to our south rather than over us so we avoid the slot. Welp, it'll keep me up for the RGEM and GFS at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I noticed too the southern vort max is getting very close to fully phasing with the northern stream vort max. If they can just get a LITTLE closer to each other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That's what I noticed. the H5 low tracks just to our south rather than over us so we avoid the slot. Welp, it'll keep me up for the RGEM and GFS at least. Lets hope it continues on the next few model runs. If it digs as far south as the Nam depicts then it will get very interesting. The clown maps will be interesting. For the clipper I'd use snow ratios as temps are cold enough to use ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lets hope it continues on the next few model runs. If it digs as far south as the Nam depicts then it will get very interesting. The clown maps will be interesting. For the clipper I'd use snow ratios as temps are cold enough to use ratios. I'll run NAM through BUFKIT when the profiles come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0z Nam Kord .43 and Kmke .68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0z Nam Kord .43 and Kmke .68 NAM delivers. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the trend remains my friend, going to be surprised if the northern stream vort comes north on the 0z GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Chuck 'em deep. NAM 72 hour total QPF through 1/14 6z (yellow=0.50-0.60", and then count 0.10" for each shading either way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What is the wind looking like with this system? A lot of talk about ratios, I think the wind will play as much a factor as the dendritic growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Starting to feel pretty good about the potential to pick up 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What is the wind looking like with this system? A lot of talk about ratios, I think the wind will play as much a factor as the dendritic growth. Fairly windy. Looks like widespread gusts to 30 MPH, if not higher in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 SREF mean beefin' up. Only out through 51hrs, so this is only till late Thursday afternoon (00z Fri). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What is the wind looking like with this system? A lot of talk about ratios, I think the wind will play as much a factor as the dendritic growth. There has been chatter of flake shattering. I dont think it will be an issue. Personally Ive only seen that a few times and GHD Blizzard was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 SREF mean beefin' up. Only out through 51hrs, so this is only till late Thursday afternoon (00z Fri). yep, they're trending in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Its looking almost certain that the most widespread snowfall of the season is imminent for the Great Lakes. After the razor thin stripes of snow on the backsides of systems that gave S MI most of its December snowfall, and the funky snow record in Midland, TX, and of course Alaska...Finally WIDESPREAD snow where it belongs, the Great Lakes/Midwest! Main questions now are who gets screwed, who gets jackpotted. Though, will any snow REALLY feel like being screwed this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Digging Deep...00Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 There has been chatter of flake shattering. I dont think it will be an issue. Personally Ive only seen that a few times and GHD Blizzard was one. Had 0.87" liquid on feb 1/2 imby, total snowfall of 10.1", although since it was a prolonged 2-day ordeal, plus wind, dry period of 6 hours on Feb 1st afternoon... snow depth only increased from 6" (Jan 31) to 13" (Feb 3rd). Small flake size. Meanwhile, on the contrary, with good dendrites, our storm on Feb 20/21 dropped 10.2" snow but 1.13" water (touch of sleet, marginal BL temps). A lot of ingredients come into ratios it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lolz at the 0z NAM. YYZ: 1.03". Starts tomorrow evening's round out as rain but then switches to snow as the column cools. Then the round Thursday night with the ul is mostly snow except for a bit of rain at the start. Spits out about an inch tomorrow night, then over 6" Thursday night. Um, I'll reserve judgment until I see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 yep, they're trending in the right direction took a pretty big jump southeast with those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lolz at the 0z NAM. YYZ: 1.03". Starts tomorrow evening's round out as rain but then switches to snow as the column cools. Then the round Thursday night with the ul is mostly snow except for a bit of rain at the start. Spits out about an inch tomorrow night, then over 6" Thursday night. Um, I'll reserve judgment until I see what the other models say. 12z GGEM showed something similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lolz at the 0z NAM. YYZ: 1.03". Starts tomorrow evening's round out as rain but then switches to snow as the column cools. Then the round Thursday night with the ul is mostly snow except for a bit of rain at the start. Spits out about an inch tomorrow night, then over 6" Thursday night. Um, I'll reserve judgment until I see what the other models say. Thats amazing. Lets hope we can lock this one in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Upon further inspection, 00z NAM also seemed to slow a lot of things down here. qpf at DTW is 0.60", of which 0.36" is rain and 0.24" snow (still lightly snowing at 84 hr). Actually 0.24" is a brief grazing from the southern stream, then when the great lakes low gets involved, it starts as 0.12" rain then turns to 0.24" snow (changeover 10pm thurs night). Surface temps plummet from 38F at 7pm thurs to 15F at 7am Fri (then rebound to the upper 20s Friday). The best snow falls with temps in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thats amazing. Lets hope we can lock this one in 0z RGEM at 48 has the ul over central IN. 12z GGEM at 60 had the ul closer to Chicago. That's a good trend as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well, it's weenie-fodder. But I'll enjoy it while I can: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0z RGEM at 48 has the ul over central IN. 12z GGEM at 60 had the ul closer to Chicago. That's a good trend as far as I'm concerned. I think the trend, for real, is your friend in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ripping pretty good over Chicagoland and Milwaukee Thursday afternoon on the new RGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well, it's weenie-fodder. But I'll enjoy it while I can: Kane County (northeast IL) FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think the trend, for real, is your friend in that regard. NAM botches this one badly and I'm done with it the rest of the winter. Oh, who am I kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 LOT update. . . NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL912 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012 .DISCUSSION... 910 PM CST HAVE TAKEN A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE 11.00 NAM AND 10.21 SREF DATA FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THE PRIOR RUN TO THE NAM HAD BEEN THE MOST ROBUST OF ANY SO FAR...WITH PERIODIC HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW FAVORED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE CURRENT NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW...KEEPING A DRY WEDGE OVER MUCH OF OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CHICAGO...THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS NATURALLY WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER START TIME TO THE SNOW. THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH ON THE NAM AND SREF. THIS IS ACTUALLY A MORE FAVORABLE PATH...PLACING THE AREA UNDER FOCUSED QG FORCING. THIS WOULD FAVOR THREE PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AMOUNTS A COUPLE INCHES HIGHER THAN THAT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INCLUDING THE NORTH CHICAGO METRO AND ROCKFORD. DISCUSSED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WATCH WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE VARIANCE IN THE NAM SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST THREE RUNS PREVENTS US FROM ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS TIME. LOOKING TO SEE IF THE 11.00 EC AND GFS WILL HELP TO FURTHER VALIDATE OR DISCREDIT THE NAM SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Kane County (northeast IL) FTL. more like Batavia screw zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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