Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Seems like the 18z GFS ensembles want to hang the precip back farther west/a little longer than the OP. Also, about half or more seem to be a little juicier than the OP, though I guess that depends on your exact location (72 hour total QPF with the last image). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Whats amazing looking at RH fields and soundings for around here using the 18z GFS, we are saturated for >24hrs through the column with the DGZ impressive for most of the event. I love long duration events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Things still look pretty good. Keep it going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Seems like the 18z GFS ensembles want to hang the precip back farther west/a little longer than the OP. Also, about half or more seem to be a little juicier than the OP (72 hour total QPF with the last image). sweet. Just like the good ole days, Illinois will pull the upset and the 0z models deliver big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 sweet. Just like the good ole days, Illinois will pull the upset and the 0z models deliver big snow. Let's hope...for both. I like the snow's chances better FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 sweet. Just like the good ole days, Illinois will pull the upset and the 0z models deliver big snow. Ahhhh.. Leanords gonna have a big game today against Sully book it! I can see it now the NAM rolling in, and BAM! Leanords with the Block!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Let's hope...for both. I like the snow's chances better FWIW. of course, seriously though i remember a year or two back getting a nice snow while a bad illinois team upset Wiscy...good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Seems like the 18z GFS ensembles want to hang the precip back farther west/a little longer than the OP. Also, about half or more seem to be a little juicier than the OP, though I guess that depends on your exact location (72 hour total QPF with the last image). fairly wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 of course, seriously though i remember a year or two back getting a nice snow while a bad illinois team upset Wiscy...good times. lol, I had to look it up. Feb 9-10, 2010...12.9" at ORD...Illini beat Wisky at the Kohl Center 63-56 on the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol, I had to look it up. Feb 9-10, 2010...12.9" at ORD...Illini beat Wisky at the Kohl Center 63-56 on the 9th. you got a legit lol from me there, awesome. EDIT: still smiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Seems like the 18z GFS ensembles want to hang the precip back farther west/a little longer than the OP. Also, about half or more seem to be a little juicier than the OP, though I guess that depends on your exact location (72 hour total QPF with the last image). Man, those def are juicier than the operational run in many cases. Several have parts of the western shoreline areas in the 0.75-1" range, which would sure be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Man, those def are juicier than the operational run in many cases. Several have parts of the western shoreline areas in the 0.75-1" range, which would sure be sweet. A lot of those ensembles are quite strong and generous on the qpf. I have heavy snow in my forecast - first time probably since February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sorry, a bit late on this..been busy preparing to get my wisdom teeth yoinked tomorrow ... anyways, my model isn't so excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sorry, a bit late on this..been busy preparing to get my wisdom teeth yoinked tomorrow ... anyways, my model isn't so excited. It's not that bad...thanks for posting it. Quick question, does your model just do 10:1 snow ratios? And good luck on the "surgery" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sorry, a bit late on this..been busy preparing to get my wisdom teeth yoinked tomorrow ... anyways, my model isn't so excited. Enjoy your applesauce and mashed potatoes! Good luck, and avoid the dreaded drysocket... Hurts like a biotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol if the 0zzs make a complete cluster **** out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 21Z SREF Mean came in quite a bit deeper/further south, more in line with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's not that bad...thanks for posting it. Quick question, does your model just do 10:1 snow ratios? And good luck on the "surgery" tomorrow. Hmm. Good question. Comparing to the QPF output, I'd say ever so slightly less than 10:1 - its just snow depth, not accumulated snow so I believe it is accounting for some compacting/sublimation/etc. If we go to 15:1, it has amounts upwards of 8" along eastern WI so yeah, I guess thats not so terrible. And goes along with a reasonable 1-2" for LAF. And, thanks, it should be a blast At least I'll have something cheerful to track while recovering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol if the 0zzs make a complete cluster **** out of this. One time it changed so drastically I wanted to cry, and it was like 12hrs before the storm. lol I was supposed to get like 8 inches, It rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sorry, a bit late on this..been busy preparing to get my wisdom teeth yoinked tomorrow ... anyways, my model isn't so excited. Nice map. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Getting excited up here in Appleton/Neenah, Wi. This storm will definetly make it easier to wake up Thursday morning for work. I will definetly be acting like a kid, sneaking away from work to look out the window. Best of luck to all. I haven't seen any real winter weather this year outside of an October storm in Denver and an inch or so over Christmas back in the northern Detroit suburbs. Here's to letting it rip in an area that really can use the snow and cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Getting excited up here in Appleton/Neenah, Wi. This storm will definetly make it easier to wake up Thursday morning for work. I will definetly be acting like a kid, sneaking away from work to look out the window. Best of luck to all. I haven't seen any real winter weather this year outside of an October storm in Denver and an inch or so over Christmas back in the northern Detroit suburbs. Here's to letting it rip in an area that really can use the snow and cold! Welcome to the forum! Wouldn't be surprised if you make out like a bandit with this one. The NAM sure likes EC Wisconsin, and the 0z looks similar but maybe a touch south. High ratio stuff regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Welcome to the forum! Wouldn't be surprised if you make out like a bandit with this one. The NAM sure likes EC Wisconsin, and the 0z looks similar but maybe a touch south. High ratio stuff regardless. Thanks! I actually live in Chicago, but am in Appleton for the next two weeks working. Can't complain about my timing here. Too bad I will likely be too busy to enjoy the weather. Nice to see some familiar faces over here too. Best of luck to my Michigan crew back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Back edge of storm on the 0z NAM really hangs around the western shore of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol at the 00z NAM. 18z GFS was an improvement... I'd love for the 12z UKMET to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lake Michigan is getting nailed on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow, 0z NAM dings us Thursday night with the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow, 0z NAM dings us Thursday night with the upper low. Beautiful run. Toronto grabs 4-6+" With the storm digging further south its more amplified and stronger....very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Precip amounts get close to 0.25 in Columbus,Oh on this run. Hopefully it keeps increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Interesting 00z NAM... It really beefs up the snow for eastern Iowa. Cedar Rapids has gone from one to four tenths precip since this morning. I won't get too excited unless all the models show something similar tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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