Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey Hoosier, whats the DGZ looking like on the NAM? I see it swings an area of -20c air through at 850. Gonna be a dry, powdery snow. Havent seen that all winter. Hopefully the winds really crank for awhile. Pretty good but there's very little precip when it's most favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One other thing to think about here that could be a negative is wind tends to rip dendrites up pretty good. Saw that happen a couple time the past two Winters... but if we get squally snows that rain down heavily the accumulations will be good. That seems like the only thing that could prevent ratios from getting out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One other thing to think about here that could be a negative is wind tends to rip dendrites up pretty good. Saw that happen a couple time the past two Winters... but if we get squally snows that rain down heavily the accumulations will be good. I don't really count that as a negative as the winds add to the ferocity of a snowstorm, so it's a give and take scenario I am willing to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GRR is saying West Michigan should be a pretty good place to be with lake effect. 18Z NAM is a dream come true this winter. Yup!!! It's been getting better all day. I hope it stops there now! I am so looking forward to some SNOW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Gotta love it Thursday: Occasional snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is going to be an interesting system to watch evolve. With non-linear processes- strengthening/phasing occuring close to overhead, tremendous dynamics will be fun to see what they do. I completely agree with what DVN said in that AFD. I get the feeling this is a system that will do a surprise clobber on some people around here (IL/WI/Northeast IA). If we could get a bit more moisture into this thing the dynamics at play will really produce some impressive snowfall. Thanks Justin, I was hoping that we would hear about the northern vort digging a little further southwest (18z gfs continues along those lines) and i appreciate the quick word about non-linear processes. That seems like the only thing that could prevent ratios from getting out of hand. DVN did mention the best lift isn't co-located within the DGZ but did mention that that could change. I'm counting on 12-15:1 for my call. FWIW the 18z GFS really keeps the light snow going for a long time on the backside, very similar to the NAM, signal for a long duration event building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 MKX saying 6" for Madtown now. Hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice to come home and read nothing has changed too much from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice to come home and read nothing has changed too much from 0z. I'll probably hang around until the 0z runs tonight but probably crash before the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thanks Justin, I was hoping that we would hear about the northern vort digging a little further southwest (18z gfs continues along those lines) and i appreciate the quick word about non-linear processes. DVN did mention the best lift isn't co-located within the DGZ but did mention that that could change. I'm counting on 12-15:1 for my call. FWIW the 18z GFS really keeps the light snow going for a long time on the backside, very similar to the NAM, signal for a long duration event building. It looked pretty good here on previous runs. Not sure about 18z. Maybe it's different depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thanks Justin, I was hoping that we would hear about the northern vort digging a little further southwest (18z gfs continues along those lines) and i appreciate the quick word about non-linear processes. DVN did mention the best lift isn't co-located within the DGZ but did mention that that could change. I'm counting on 12-15:1 for my call. FWIW the 18z GFS really keeps the light snow going for a long time on the backside, very similar to the NAM, signal for a long duration event building. Yeah Alek I think the chances are good the models may be playing catch-up a while longer with that Northern Vort, thus digging more to the W-SW on it is still very, very possible. This should help pull the Southern stream system NNE then the phasing begins overhead, in our area. This is a complex system with lots of little things all going on in the big picture. With the models small changes in input will greatly affect the output/final result. These are tough to call when a system is trying to bomb out- especially if it bombs a bit more than projected. I'm amped for this one to see what it does- maybe because its the first real dynamic system get my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah Alek I think the chances are good the models may be playing catch-up a while longer with that Northern Vort, thus digging more to the W-SW on it is still very, very possible. This should help pull the Southern stream system NNE then the phasing begins overhead, in our area. This is a complex system with lots of little things all going on in the big picture. With the models small changes in input will greatly affect the output/final result. These are tough to call when a system is trying to bomb out- especially if it bombs a bit more than projected. I'm amped for this one to see what it does- maybe because its the first real dynamic system get my area. well put...the lack of a real gulf connection is keeping my hopes for something totally major in check but an interesting dynamic system delivering a long duration event would be great. Hopefully the positive baby steps with the northern vort continue and we see something really special but at this point beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 For s's and giggles.... 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thinking 1-2" for Central Illinois right now, kinda sucks that EIU is back in session so I can't stay up all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Given the non-linear nature, is it possible we might reach a point where the NAM becomes more useful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 IWX must initially be expecting a more westerly component to the winds with this system with the winter storm watch issued for the Michigan area. Yet in the last LES event the extreme northern IN counties were eventually added to the warning if I recall correctly and I got a nice 7 inches of snow out of it IMBY which is now barren once again. Interesting upcoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Given the non-linear nature, is it possible we might reach a point where the NAM becomes more useful? Inside 24 hours i think this might be true, I'm going to keep watching trends across the board with the northern vort until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Given the non-linear nature, is it possible we might reach a point where the NAM becomes more useful? here lately I've noticed the NAM is a lot more reliable than the GFS for sure, Just my opinion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Given the non-linear nature, is it possible we might reach a point where the NAM becomes more useful? Was wondering/thinking the same thing. FWIW the usually high Cobb output off the 18z NAM spits out 6.5" here but sky high ratios is the causing for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 baro gave a nice explanation about the NAM and it's ability to handle similar scenarios last year...that said i think some of the larger scale issues are still beyond it's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Here's a bold call Detroit north and west gets 2-4" 18z GFS looks nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Local met Vince Condella (a bit of a warminista to begin with) is predicting 2-3" on the 5:00 news, with 3-5" well northwest. On the Sky Vision radar, the model he uses dry slots us for a good 12 hours it looked like Thursday afternoon or evening. The only model that really looked like that was the 12z GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 HPC disco is some serious weenie business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 from the 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 HPC disco is some serious weenie business winter or regular HPC site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 winter or regular HPC site? d2/3 winter SHARP SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVINGIN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE/SPIN UP A RATHER LARGE AND COLD H3-H5 TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONIC FLOW THAT STALLS OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE SHORTWAVE...UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO PHASE/INCORPORATE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. VERY DYNAMIC SITUATION WITH DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS AS DEEP COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOW TRACK GRAPHIC ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS TRACK...TAKING TREMENDOUS WRAP AROUND COLD-SECTOR PRECIPITATION...COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE SOURCE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG AND NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WEST END OF LAKE HURON AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THOUGHT THE 12Z NAM MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...HOWEVER...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF FORM A CONSENSUS AROUND A WELL-WRAPPED SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM AND COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 from the 12z UKMET Wow, I'd die to see that verifying. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Here's a bold call Detroit north and west gets 2-4" As is the case almost all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Lol @ the UkIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 As is the case almost all the time. not really. The east side of the metro area does worst when it comes to LES for sure (unless you get a perfect northerly flow off huron), but synoptically it depends on individual setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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