Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 :faints: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is a very tricky event to forecast. There are still some issues to be resolved, especially how models handle the northern vort max energy. I'll wait until the 00z models tonight and 12z runs tomorrow before I make a definite forecast for the Toronto area. As of right now, my best guess for Thursday morning is for a mix of rain/snow by Lake Ontario, a coating to an inch or so north of highway 401 and 2"+ north of highway 7/points east. The best bet for a general snow will be Friday morning with the Arctic front passage. Maybe an inch or so. What sucks is that 9 times out of 10, it's the coastal storm that becomes dominant. If that were the case we'd be able to maintain an ageostrophic flow and get some of the colder air from the Ottawa Valley to drain into the north shore of L Ontario. With that storm over MI deepening, it sort of gums up the works as we're more prone to have our sfc winds stay SE/SSE. Otherwise, I'd agree with snowstorms' amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOT GUIDANCE PLUMES HAVE SHOWN A PACKING OF MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL...WHICH SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME...WITH ARND 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF I-80. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE TOTALS WILL BE ARND 2 TO 5 INCHES...THE HIGHEST FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL. Visual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOT GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO FAVOR A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BTWN 14-21Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SNOWFALL. GUIDANCE PLUMES HAVE SHOWN A PACKING OF MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL...WHICH SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME...WITH ARND 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF I-80. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE TOTALS WILL BE ARND 2 TO 5 INCHES...THE HIGHEST FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL. WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...FEEL THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LIKE SNOWFALL AND THE BURST NATURE THURSDAY. THIS COULD EASILY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ZERO AT TIMES. WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LONG LIVED BURST...THEY WILL POSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE AS WELL AS THE AFTN COMMUTE. IN ADDITION WIND CHILL VALUES BY THE AFTN WILL HOVER ARND 0 TO 5 ABOVE. new HD video camera will be ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 MKX COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR WED NT WITH 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND PVA TO FOLLOW LATE WED NT INTO THU NT. THERE ALSO WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERALL...OMEGA AND LIFT IS CATEGORIZED AS MODERATE. THIS IS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AND A CONSENSUS OF QPF GIVES AROUND 0.30 INCHES IN THE FAR WRN CWA TO 0.40 INCHES IN THE EAST AND NORTH. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...COBB TECHNIQUE...AND ROEBBERS NEURAL NETWORK ALL GIVE LIGHT SNOW RATIOS EVEN WITH 15 KT SFC WINDS...AS TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS BECOME VERY COLD. THIS YIELDS 5-6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 30 HOUR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND FOR DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT WIND GUSTS ARE TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS SNOW EVENT. A WORST CASE SCENARIO IS IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN PLACING THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OR IN WRN LOWER MI. WINDS WOULD THEN GUST TO NEARLY 30 KTS OR MORE AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. THIS HOWEVER IS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Both the GEM and UKIE are bullish on QPF as well. UKIE has SE WI in an area of 0.25+" in a 6 hour period. Meanwhile the GEM bullseyes C Wisconsin with around 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 IND lowered snow totals here in Marion... IWX serves Marion, and yes they did lower totals today. I went 1-2 near MIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What sucks is that 9 times out of 10, it's the coastal storm that becomes dominant. If that were the case we'd be able to maintain an ageostrophic flow and get some of the colder air from the Ottawa Valley to drain into the north shore of L Ontario. With that storm over MI deepening, it sort of gums up the works as we're more prone to have our sfc winds stay SE/SSE. Otherwise, I'd agree with snowstorms' amounts. Great points. The key for Thursday morning is to see if the southern/coastal low can maintain itself enough to draw in the colder air from the northeast. If the Great Lakes low takes over faster, than it's game over for measurable snow until Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Great points. The key for Thursday morning is to see if the southern/coastal low can maintain itself enough to draw in the colder air from the northeast. If the Great Lakes low takes over faster, than it's game over for measurable snow until Friday morning. 18z RGEM is want we don't want to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 DVN AFD FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 DVN AFD FTW lol, yeah. The opening paragraph pertaining to this system is good. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY... 12Z UA DATA COMPARED TO THE 00Z MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST IS STRONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. 12Z MODELS DEPICT THIS AND HAVE THE SYSTEM DIGGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST. THE 00Z/11 MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NONLINEAR IN NATURE AND THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SURPRISES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 New SPS from LOT BY THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MILES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MORNING COMMUTE. OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IN TANDEM WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FOR A WIDESPREAD GREATER THAN 2 INCH SNOWFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=LOT&product=SPS&issuedby=LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol, yeah. The opening paragraph pertaining to this system is good. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY... 12Z UA DATA COMPARED TO THE 00Z MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST IS STRONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. 12Z MODELS DEPICT THIS AND HAVE THE SYSTEM DIGGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST. THE 00Z/11 MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NONLINEAR IN NATURE AND THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SURPRISES. Alek's call looking mighty fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol, yeah. The opening paragraph pertaining to this system is good. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY... 12Z UA DATA COMPARED TO THE 00Z MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST IS STRONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. 12Z MODELS DEPICT THIS AND HAVE THE SYSTEM DIGGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST. THE 00Z/11 MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NONLINEAR IN NATURE AND THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SURPRISES. Yeah, if there is any trend we can use at this point in the W GL, it would be a slight SW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol, yeah. The opening paragraph pertaining to this system is good. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...Ooo 12Z UA DATA COMPARED TO THE 00Z MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST IS STRONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. 12Z MODELS DEPICT THIS AND HAVE THE SYSTEM DIGGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST. THE 00Z/11 MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NONLINEAR IN NATURE AND THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SURPRISES. Dvn always brings the weenie red meat, really nice to hear though...ideal actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I could almost lock up one of my bets with BowMe if the 18z NAM verified. What do you think as far as amounts for us? I think 1-2" is a relatively safe/conservative early call but upward adjustments are possible if not probable. Not very confident with this thing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana... MIZ077>079-110530- /O.NEW.KIWX.WS.A.0001.120112T1800Z-120114T0000Z/ BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH... BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS... THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON 417 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. * STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol, yeah. The opening paragraph pertaining to this system is good. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY... 12Z UA DATA COMPARED TO THE 00Z MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST IS STRONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. 12Z MODELS DEPICT THIS AND HAVE THE SYSTEM DIGGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST. THE 00Z/11 MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NONLINEAR IN NATURE AND THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SURPRISES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What do you think as far as amounts for us? I think 1-2" is a relatively safe/conservative early call but upward adjustments are possible if not probable. Not very confident with this thing yet. IND's call of 1-2" looks fine to me right now. But yes, I could see us getting to 3" if everything breaks right. Hopefully there is a little more clarity with the 0z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z RGEM is want we don't want to happen. Yup. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18Z GFS digging more that the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If we are going to get our first 1" snowfall of the season, I hope it's conclusive. With the wind it will be difficult to know how much has fallen. It would be nice if I can look outside and think, "yep, definitely over an inch", or "nope, not an inch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Anyone care to share the short and dirty of what dvn is talking about re nonlinear processes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice, LOT sounds confident in totals....because it's my style i'll throw out an early 5.5" guess for MBY...that's right, going bullish. Who are you and what have you done with Alek! Nice bold call btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Anyone care to share the short and dirty of what dvn is talking about re nonlinear processes? not just a wave rolling through with a sharp cut-off....but a building synoptic-ness as things phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Here's a bold call Detroit north and west gets 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is going to be an interesting system to watch evolve. With non-linear processes- strengthening/phasing occuring close to overhead, tremendous dynamics will be fun to see what they do. I completely agree with what DVN said in that AFD. I get the feeling this is a system that will do a surprise clobber on some people around here (IL/WI/Northeast IA). If we could get a bit more moisture into this thing the dynamics at play will really produce some impressive snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GRR is saying West Michigan should be a pretty good place to be with lake effect. 18Z NAM is a dream come true this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey Hoosier, whats the DGZ looking like on the NAM? I see it swings an area of -20c air through at 850. Gonna be a dry, powdery snow. Havent seen that all winter. Hopefully the winds really crank for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One other thing to think about here that could be a negative is wind tends to rip dendrites up pretty good. Saw that happen a couple time the past two Winters... but if we get squally snows that rain down heavily the accumulations will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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