Nic Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So does this model do a phase in reverse? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 HPC Low Tracks to go along.. To be honest I do not think HPC maps are ever that accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is a long duration event even though most of the precip is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Bowme and crew should like the 18z NAM...sit and spin city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z GFS could be overdoing it here... but it shows potential of a widespread light to moderate accumulation of snow for Thursday night into Friday morning... I doubt we see more than 1" in NW Ohio. Looking at the temps it looks like mid to upper 30s before dropping below freezing with .1 QPF max during that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 By 39hrs, the 18z NAM looks to dig the northern vort ever so slightly more southwest than 12z, probably won't be much different than 12z and if anything a little better. EDIT: noticeably south, stronger, wetter Nice run Moneyman/Bowme gotta be stoked.. 18Z VS 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 NAM 24 hr precip at 66 hrs. I will take it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice run Moneyman/Bowme gotta be stoked.. super long duration high ratio event with lake enhancement up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm going to go out in left field and say GRB = jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I doubt we see more than 1" in NW Ohio. Looking at the temps it looks like mid to upper 30s before dropping below freezing with .1 QPF max during that timeframe ECM/UKM/NAM/GEM all show more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm going to go out in left field and say GRB = jackpot zone. bold call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm going to go out in left field and say GRB = jackpot zone. I think EC Wisconsin into N Lower Michigan will be the jackpot zone myself. MKE will probably be just south, and Chicago well south but will still receive 2-4 inches or so. Still the Euro could well be closer to reality, in which case MKE to ORD and points NE into C Lower Michigan could make out like bandits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 IND lowered snow totals here in Marion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 bold call We bet on it and I'd have to pay you if I won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think EC Wisconsin into N Lower Michigan will be the jackpot zone myself. MKE will probably be just south, and Chicago well south but will still receive 2-4 inches or so. Still the Euro could well be closer to reality, in which case MKE to ORD and points NE into C Lower Michigan could make out like bandits. GL to you. NAM QPF always seems to be unreasonably bullish, but even still, that looks like 10" easy, especially on your side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The song, You Spin Me Round (Like a Record) Pretty much sums this run up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 DTX AFD favors the northern areas of their CWA as potential interest for Headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GL to you. NAM QPF always seems to be unreasonably bullish, but even still, that looks like 10" easy, especially on your side of the lake. Pretty tough forecast (as winter storms almost always are), before too long here the northern vort will be leavign the Canadian Rockies and begin to dig into the plains...I expect the somewhat erratic handling of this feature to start to level off. The 0z and 12z runs have made it pretty clear that rather small differences in the handling of this feature will manifest into some pretty large changes in how the two interact down the road. If we're lucky maybe we can get a met to chime in about the tendencies of northern vorts like this...ie do they tend to scoot east quicker or dig further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 super long duration high ratio event with lake enhancement up that way. still manage .30"-.40" along and north of 88 in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm going to go out in left field and say GRB = jackpot zone. Any thoughts on what we may get? I'm thinking a good 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 still manage .30"-.40" along and north of 88 in northern IL. it was a great run, I'm just hoping it's a step towards consensus and not just another wobble back and forth. We have plenty of room to trend in one direction...naso much the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Any thoughts on what we may get? I'm thinking a good 2-4" From tomorrow night through Friday, I'd be surprised if we clocked more than an inch. Even the colder NAM keeps us above freezing (albeit slightly) tomorrow night. Then, after that, we're in a col between the departing southern wave and the deepening northern wave over MI. Very little juice being printed out by the models and rightly so as there's nothing to focus and pcpn development. Maybe we get a burst early Friday morning with the arctic fropa? But that's about it. How do you figure 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOT GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO FAVOR A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BTWN 14-21Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SNOWFALL. GUIDANCE PLUMES HAVE SHOWN A PACKING OF MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL...WHICH SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME...WITH ARND 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF I-80. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE TOTALS WILL BE ARND 2 TO 5 INCHES...THE HIGHEST FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL. WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...FEEL THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LIKE SNOWFALL AND THE BURST NATURE THURSDAY. THIS COULD EASILY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ZERO AT TIMES. WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LONG LIVED BURST...THEY WILL POSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE AS WELL AS THE AFTN COMMUTE. IN ADDITION WIND CHILL VALUES BY THE AFTN WILL HOVER ARND 0 TO 5 ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is a very tricky event to forecast. There are still some issues to be resolved, especially how models handle the northern vort max energy. I'll wait until the 00z models tonight and 12z runs tomorrow before I make a definite forecast for the Toronto area. As of right now, my best guess for Thursday morning is for a mix of rain/snow by Lake Ontario, a coating to an inch or so north of highway 401 and 2"+ north of highway 7/points east. The best bet for a general snow will be Friday morning with the Arctic front passage. Maybe an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 it was a great run, I'm just hoping it's a step towards consensus and not just another wobble back and forth. We have plenty of room to trend in one direction...naso much the other. I still think there is a shot this trends a bit more south, but same chance the other way. Frankly, I'm perfectly fine where we sit right now and 3-5" is fine with me. NAM difference with the location of the ULL from the 12z run to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Bowme and crew should like the 18z NAM...sit and spin city. I could almost lock up one of my bets with BowMe if the 18z NAM verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOT GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO FAVOR A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BTWN 14-21Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SNOWFALL. GUIDANCE PLUMES HAVE SHOWN A PACKING OF MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL...WHICH SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME...WITH ARND 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF I-80. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE TOTALS WILL BE ARND 2 TO 5 INCHES...THE HIGHEST FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL. WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...FEEL THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LIKE SNOWFALL AND THE BURST NATURE THURSDAY. THIS COULD EASILY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ZERO AT TIMES. WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LONG LIVED BURST...THEY WILL POSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE AS WELL AS THE AFTN COMMUTE. IN ADDITION WIND CHILL VALUES BY THE AFTN WILL HOVER ARND 0 TO 5 ABOVE. Nice, LOT sounds confident in totals....because it's my style i'll throw out an early 5.5" guess for MBY...that's right, going bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 From tomorrow night through Friday, I'd be surprised if we clocked more than an inch. Even the colder NAM keeps us above freezing (albeit slightly) tomorrow night. Then, after that, we're in a col between the departing southern wave and the deepening northern wave over MI. Very little juice being printed out by the models and rightly so as there's nothing to focus and pcpn development. Maybe we get a burst early Friday morning with the arctic fropa? But that's about it. How do you figure 2-4"? The 18z Nam showed about 2-4" from both wave. I do think if we can have enough cold air aloft thanks to the HP across the north we may be able to cool those surface temps to around 0.5 to 1.0C. Lets see. 0z Runs wil be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice, LOT sounds confident in totals....because it's my style i'll throw out an early 5.5" guess for MBY...that's right, going bullish. :faints: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice, LOT sounds confident in totals....because it's my style i'll throw out an early 5.5" guess for MBY...that's right, going bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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