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January 12-14 Potential storm

dilly84

By dilly84,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

12Z ECMWF

LSE:

 
THU 06Z 12-JAN  -5.1    -8.2    1008	  66	  98    0.04	 536	 529   
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -6.4   -11.7    1008	  58	  97    0.04	 531	 524   
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.5   -15.5    1008	  50	 100    0.02	 528	 522   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -8.4   -18.1    1010	  52	  97    0.05	 527	 520   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -9.8   -18.5    1012	  55	  98    0.05	 528	 519   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN -11.5   -14.5    1016	  51	  83    0.02	 531	 519

MSN:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -4.0    -6.4    1003	  75	 100    0.05	 533	 531   
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -4.9   -11.8    1003	  70	  99    0.15	 529	 526   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -7.2   -15.1    1005	  71	 100    0.12	 526	 522   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.9   -16.1    1008	  70	  97    0.07	 527	 521   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -9.0   -17.0    1012	  70	  96    0.04	 529	 520

MKE:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -1.2    -5.7	 999	  79	 100    0.07	 530	 531   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.6   -10.3    1002	  73	 100    0.15	 527	 525   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -13.1    1004	  74	 100    0.12	 526	 522   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.3   -16.0    1009	  70	  98    0.07	 528	 521   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -16.9    1013	  59	  92    0.02	 531	 521

SBM:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -1.8    -5.0	 999	  81	  99    0.09	 530	 531   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.0    -9.5    1001	  76	  99    0.17	 528	 526   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.1   -13.0    1004	  75	 100    0.14	 526	 523   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.8   -16.6    1008	  72	  98    0.09	 528	 521   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -7.4   -16.3    1013	  61	  73    0.02	 530	 520

CID:

 
THU 06Z 12-JAN  -4.9    -7.1    1009	  58	  99    0.02	 537	 530   
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -7.8   -10.8    1010	  45	  35    0.01	 530	 523   
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.6   -15.2    1010	  44	  30    0.00	 527	 519   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -18.3    1011	  45	  69    0.00	 527	 518   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.4   -18.2    1013	  52	  97    0.03	 528	 518   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -9.9   -15.0    1017	  45	  89    0.02	 532	 519

DVN:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -5.6    -9.2    1007	  57	  99    0.07	 532	 526   
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -5.6   -13.7    1007	  51	  83    0.04	 527	 521   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -16.9    1009	  49	  87    0.03	 526	 519   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.8   -18.1    1011	  57	  96    0.04	 527	 518   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.4   -17.6    1015	  55	  95    0.02	 531	 519

PIA:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -4.7    -7.5    1006	  69	 100    0.05	 534	 529   
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.1   -13.2    1007	  57	  96    0.10	 527	 522   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.9   -16.5    1009	  49	  67    0.05	 525	 518   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -17.9    1011	  56	  97    0.02	 526	 517   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.9   -18.2    1015	  57	  94    0.02	 530	 519

ORD:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -2.2    -7.3    1000	  75	 100    0.06	 529	 529   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.6   -12.5    1003	  71	 100    0.13	 525	 523   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.4   -14.7    1005	  68	  98    0.07	 525	 521   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.1   -16.4    1010	  67	  98    0.05	 528	 520   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.9   -17.1    1014	  59	  86    0.03	 532	 521

MDW:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -2.3    -7.3    1000	  77	 100    0.07	 529	 529   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.4   -12.6    1003	  73	 100    0.13	 525	 523   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -14.9    1005	  69	  98    0.07	 525	 520   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -16.5    1010	  68	  98    0.05	 528	 520   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.7   -17.0    1014	  60	  87    0.03	 532	 521

DEC:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -3.3    -6.0    1005	  74	 100    0.02	 536	 531   
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.0   -13.7    1007	  59	  98    0.11	 527	 522   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.7   -16.2    1010	  52	  63    0.05	 525	 518   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.1   -17.7    1012	  50	  59    0.01	 525	 516   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -18.3    1015	  53	  95    0.01	 530	 518

STL:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -2.3   -10.5    1009	  66	  98    0.05	 534	 527   
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -2.2   -14.7    1010	  44	  74    0.01	 526	 518

PAH:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.0    -4.1    1006	  90	  97    0.01	 540	 535   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.1   -12.0    1009	  54	 100    0.06	 528	 521   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.0   -12.7    1013	  49	  86    0.01	 527	 517

IND:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -2.1    -7.1    1002	  80	  98    0.05	 532	 530   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.8   -14.9    1006	  64	  99    0.05	 524	 519   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.6   -16.2    1009	  59	  88    0.03	 523	 516   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -17.9    1013	  57	  96    0.01	 527	 517   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.9   -16.9    1016	  48	  95    0.01	 533	 520

LAF:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -3.2    -8.4    1002	  77	 100    0.06	 530	 528   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -14.3    1006	  69	 100    0.08	 524	 520   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.5   -15.9    1008	  65	  98    0.05	 524	 518   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.3   -17.2    1012	  60	  98    0.02	 527	 518   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.3   -17.2    1015	  50	  95    0.01	 533	 521

VPZ:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -1.8    -6.1    1000	  79	  98    0.06	 530	 530   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.3   -12.2    1002	  75	 100    0.15	 525	 523   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.2   -14.7    1005	  73	  98    0.09	 524	 520   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.4   -16.1    1009	  72	  95    0.07	 527	 519   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.4   -16.1    1013	  61	  91    0.05	 532	 521   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.1   -15.9    1018	  65	  43    0.01	 534	 520

OKK:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -0.9    -5.7    1000	  81	  97    0.03	 532	 531   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.2   -13.3    1004	  71	  99    0.09	 524	 521   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.5   -15.3    1006	  70	  99    0.05	 523	 518   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.5   -16.7    1010	  64	  98    0.02	 526	 518   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -17.0    1014	  52	  94    0.02	 531	 520

FWA:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.4	 0.1	 998	  96	  96    0.01	 541	 543   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.5    -3.5	 998	  88	  84    0.02	 533	 535   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.6   -10.4    1001	  76	  99    0.09	 526	 525   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.7   -13.0    1003	  72	  98    0.04	 522	 519   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -14.3    1007	  68	  97    0.03	 525	 519   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.2   -15.5    1012	  59	  89    0.04	 529	 520   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.7   -15.0    1017	  60	  91    0.02	 534	 521

HAO:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.4	 0.9    1000	  96	  45    0.02	 544	 544   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.5    -2.8    1000	  88	  99    0.03	 535	 536   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.1   -12.9    1005	  63	  98    0.05	 526	 522   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.4   -15.6    1008	  58	  97    0.01	 523	 517   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.0   -16.7    1011	  53	  87    0.01	 525	 516

DAY:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.9	 1.1	 999	  97	  81    0.03	 544	 545   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.2    -2.2	 999	  89	  70    0.03	 536	 537   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.1   -11.7    1003	  70	  93    0.05	 526	 524   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.0   -15.2    1006	  59	  98    0.02	 522	 517   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -16.8    1010	  56	  98    0.01	 524	 517   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.8   -16.2    1013	  48	 100    0.01	 529	 519   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.6   -16.1    1018	  51	  98    0.01	 535	 521

CMH:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   5.9	 3.8	 997	  96	  93    0.04	 545	 547   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   5.6    -0.3	 998	  89	  56    0.03	 538	 540   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.2    -6.6    1000	  89	  90    0.04	 529	 529   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.2   -14.9    1005	  61	 100    0.02	 521	 517   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -16.2    1008	  55	 100    0.01	 523	 516   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.2   -15.8    1012	  46	 100    0.01	 527	 518   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.9   -15.6    1017	  52	 100    0.02	 534	 520

TDZ:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.9	 2.3	 995	  99	  97    0.13	 542	 546   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.8    -0.8	 995	  91	  68    0.02	 536	 540   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   0.4    -5.6	 997	  92	  93    0.05	 528	 531   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -3.7    -9.8	 998	  75	 100    0.04	 521	 523   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -4.9   -11.3    1002	  72	 100    0.08	 522	 520   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.2   -13.3    1007	  60	  98    0.07	 525	 520   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.0   -14.1    1013	  71	 100    0.06	 532	 521   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.6   -15.2    1017	  71	  33    0.02	 533	 520   
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -8.6   -16.2    1020	  74	   8    0.01	 532	 517

CLE:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.8	 0.2	 995	  92	  94    0.05	 539	 543   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.5    -2.9	 996	  91	  84    0.03	 531	 534   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -3.7   -10.0	 999	  72	  86    0.01	 522	 523   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -4.8   -12.3    1002	  69	 100    0.04	 520	 519   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.8   -13.5    1006	  66	  99    0.07	 523	 518   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -3.8   -12.7    1012	  66	  96    0.07	 530	 521   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -4.8   -15.1    1016	  66	  82    0.05	 533	 521   
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -6.3   -16.4    1019	  68	  20    0.02	 532	 518   
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.2   -15.8    1020	  56	  14    0.01	 533	 517

MKG:

 
THU 06Z 12-JAN   0.6	 2.0    1000	  90	  87    0.00	 543	 543   
THU 12Z 12-JAN   1.1    -0.6	 998	  92	 100    0.00	 538	 539   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.4    -2.6	 996	  92	  99    0.02	 532	 535   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   0.2    -5.3	 996	  92	 100    0.18	 527	 531   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -1.8    -9.5	 998	  83	 100    0.18	 524	 526   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.9   -13.7    1003	  76	  99    0.17	 525	 522   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.0   -14.8    1009	  66	 100    0.10	 529	 522   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.7   -15.5    1015	  71	  31    0.03	 532	 520   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -7.0   -16.1    1017	  71	  12    0.01	 530	 516   
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -7.6   -15.8    1018	  69	  44    0.01	 531	 517

GRR:

 
THU 06Z 12-JAN   1.2	 1.3    1000	  88	  96    0.00	 543	 544   
THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.0    -0.9	 998	  92	 100    0.01	 539	 541   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.8    -2.0	 995	  97	  99    0.04	 533	 536   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   0.7    -3.9	 995	  99	 100    0.15	 528	 532   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -1.3    -7.8	 996	  93	 100    0.19	 524	 527   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -4.8   -13.4    1002	  82	 100    0.15	 524	 522   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.8   -15.0    1008	  64	  98    0.09	 528	 522   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.9   -15.2    1015	  76	  78    0.02	 532	 520   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -9.0   -15.9    1018	  76	   9    0.00	 530	 517   
SAT 12Z 14-JAN -10.4   -16.0    1019	  77	  33    0.01	 531	 516

BTL:

 
THU 06Z 12-JAN   3.0	 0.6	 999	  94	  97    0.06	 544	 545   
THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.6    -0.6	 997	  97	  98    0.03	 540	 542   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.3    -1.9	 996	  95	  98    0.04	 533	 536   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -0.3    -5.4	 996	  94	  99    0.13	 527	 530   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -2.6    -8.8	 997	  87	 100    0.19	 523	 525   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -4.4   -12.5    1002	  82	  99    0.14	 524	 522   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.3   -13.9    1008	  68	  96    0.09	 528	 522   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.6   -14.9    1015	  76	  96    0.03	 532	 521   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN -10.1   -15.3    1018	  84	  13    0.01	 532	 518   
SAT 12Z 14-JAN -11.9   -15.8    1019	  84	  23    0.01	 532	 517

ADG:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.3	 0.6	 996	  98	  99    0.12	 541	 544   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.0    -1.0	 995	  92	  95    0.02	 535	 539   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -0.5    -5.3	 997	  89	  97    0.08	 528	 530   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -2.9    -9.1	 997	  82	  99    0.09	 522	 524   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.9   -11.3    1001	  79	  99    0.13	 522	 522   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.6   -13.4    1006	  63	  99    0.06	 526	 521   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.3   -15.0    1013	  70	  99    0.03	 532	 521   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN -11.0   -15.2    1018	  78	  24    0.01	 533	 519   
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -8.8   -16.0    1020	  72	   9    0.01	 532	 516

DTW:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.3	 1.3	 995	  98	  99    0.19	 542	 545   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.0    -0.9	 994	  92	  96    0.05	 536	 541   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.6    -3.7	 995	  96	  96    0.05	 529	 533   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -1.6    -7.1	 995	  86	 100    0.06	 522	 526   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -2.0    -9.4	 998	  85	 100    0.16	 521	 523   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.2   -13.8    1005	  63	  98    0.06	 524	 520   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.8   -15.4    1012	  69	  97    0.02	 530	 521

PHN:

 
THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.5	 0.6	 996	  97	  97    0.11	 542	 545   
THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.1    -0.1	 993	  96	  97    0.18	 537	 543   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.8    -2.6	 993	  95	  97    0.04	 530	 536   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -0.7    -5.0	 993	  89	  91    0.04	 523	 529   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.2    -7.2	 995	  87	 100    0.09	 520	 525   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.1   -13.3    1003	  64	  98    0.05	 523	 521   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.2   -17.3    1011	  66	  98    0.01	 528	 520

YKF:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.5	 0.6	 995	  98	  94    0.07	 540	 543   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.0    -1.1	 993	  98	  86    0.09	 534	 540   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   1.4    -4.1	 992	  97	  64    0.02	 527	 533   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -2.4    -7.4	 994	  85	  63    0.02	 522	 527   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -0.4    -7.8	 996	  81	  99    0.04	 522	 526   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.5   -15.5    1007	  63	  96    0.03	 527	 521

YYZ:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.0	 0.2	 996	  96	  95    0.06	 540	 543   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.1    -0.7	 993	  96	  96    0.08	 535	 541   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   2.8    -3.6	 992	  94	  75    0.02	 528	 534   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.7    -6.4	 994	  83	  80    0.01	 523	 528   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN   1.4    -6.7	 994	  75	  96    0.03	 522	 527   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.4   -15.0    1006	  65	  98    0.03	 526	 521   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -9.0   -16.7    1012	  66	  96    0.01	 527	 518

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

We'd probably squeeze out 2-3" on this run...better than everything else save the UK.

Wunderground maps looks like about 0.10", maybe a touch more. Time to ride the Ukie. :sled:

EDIT: now that Joe posted the numbers, it doesn't look that bad. I'd take 2" and call it a day.

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Indystorm

Indystorm

Posted
Posted

Just have a hunch that IWX will be issuing a winter storm watch soon for Michiana and environs based on their special weather statement and AFD highlights. Nice combination of system and LES if this pans out. Strange to read Gino in Chicago emphasizing first significant snow for the Chicago area and it's Jan 10th.

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

Just have a hunch that IWX will be issuing a winter storm watch soon for Michiana and environs based on their special weather statement and AFD highlights. Strange to read Gino in Chicago emphasizing first significant snow for the Chicago area and it's Jan 10th.

Best part is significant this winter means anything over 2 inches. This coming from a city that got a 20 inch blizzard Lol. What a difference a year makes.!

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ValpoVike

ValpoVike

Posted
Posted

obviously as i was replying to a Cook County poster my comment was to be taken locally, clearly the favored lake areas should see a nice 1-2 punch.

Yes, I get that. Was only surprised to see how bullish the confidence is due south of the lake. Was thinking that this would be a Berrien/Cass event mainly. But as in most LES events, I never get to worked up until it actually happens.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted

Thoughts as to whether the local offices on the west side of Lake Michigan should consider/issue winter storm watches? Right now the consensus would seem to favor 4-6 inches (except for the crazy 12z NAM), but with the wind being a factor and the dry snow, this might be one of those situations where borderline accums trend toward WSW rather than WWA.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Yes, I get that. Was only surprised to see how bullish the confidence is due south of the lake. Was thinking that this would be a Berrien/Cass event mainly. But as in most LES events, I never get to worked up until it actually happens.

There may even be brief enhancement on the west side of the lake, so i image that would transition through the south end before arriving at the most favored east side.

Thoughts as to whether the local offices on the west side of Lake Michigan should consider/issue winter storm watches? Right now the consensus would seem to favor 4-6 inches (except for the crazy 12z NAM), but with the wind being a factor and the dry snow, this might be one of those situations where borderline accums trend toward WSW rather than WWA.

Seems too early but i really don't care what they do.

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Nic

Nic

Posted
Posted

1-3 " seems probable for most of areas north of ohio river. Lakes are still unfrozen, and snowshowers appear to form behind cold front.

Kind of interesting really rarely does snow form behind a cold front like is shown on the models.

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