Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's much more questionable for us than farther north. The Euro/ensembles are not a bad thing to have going for us. Of course...that's why I'm playing it conservative. 12z Ukie looks like a solid 2-4" for us. Not bad. Hopefully it foretells the Euro holding onto its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS has fairly widespread DGZ depths of 150-200+ mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One thing that really hasn't been mentioned is wind. Granted we're not talking extreme conditions but it appears that gusts could top 30 mph. Certainly going to look wintry. Yeah, lots of blowing and drifting, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z UKIE has 7.5-12.5 mm (or roughly 0.30"-0.50") for Chicagoland north of 80 and into IN. The real bullseye though is lower MI with widespread 0.40"-0.80" and maybe an isolated 1.00" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z UKIE has 7.5-12.5 mm (or roughly 0.30"-0.50") for Chicagoland north of 80 and into IN. The real bullseye though is lower MI with widespread 0.40"-0.80" and maybe an isolated 1.00" total. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS has fairly widespread DGZ depths of 150-200+ mb. yeah like to see that. Strong gradient flow would be the only limiting factor for high ratio snow in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice graphics from MKE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Triple phaser potential returning? If the ull can dig far enough south, it could explode. Serious issues to watch for. As worthless as it has been this fall and winter, baby steps on the 12z NAM I suppose. CIPS analogs based off last night's 0z GFS at 72 hours: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F072&flg= Notice #3. lolz JBastardi tweet within the last hr: "monster great lakes storm with high winds, snows, sharp turn to colder Thursday leading winters comeback" Of course, he's never one to hype an event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yeah like to see that. Strong gradient flow would be the only limiting factor for high ratio snow in this case. I know that ratios can be tough to forecast but would you say that ~15:1 is a fair assumption given the potential wind factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z GGEM lays down some good snow for WI. Hard to tell on the b/w's, but it looks like 6"+ would be possible in spots. Verbatim, a couple of flakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I know that ratios can be tough to forecast but would you say that ~15:1 is a fair assumption given the potential wind factor? yeah that seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 UKMET is juicy for most of the area... congrats southern Michigan too: Yea, I really need to PM Harry and let him know there's a bomb threat in our 'hood.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Couldn't draw up a better void of activity for mby if you tried. Just brutal. Hopefully the LES on the backside performs better than it did last week. Looking at the models from this morning and last night, I think the best period for snow for us would be Friday. Last night's 00z Euro and today's 12z GFS and UKMET hint at some wraparound snow. QPF around 0.10-0.20". Not too shabby, but nothing compared to areas to our west. I'll take the 1-2" of snow for now. Let's see what the 12z EURO has to offer, especially to see if it trends stronger. Another period to watch will be Thursday morning. The 12z NAM gives a few inches of snow, but other models are warmer, with the best snows north of the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So I am in Connecticut for work and trying to track this storm for potential impacts up here on the NE forum, and it is f**king miserable. Anyone care to throw me a bone, go slightly OT, and tell me if I am looking at a cold rain or snow event in N. Central Connecticut from this system as it tracks NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So nice to see this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So I am in Connecticut for work and trying to track this storm for potential impacts up here on the NE forum, and it is f**king miserable. Anyone care to throw me a bone, go slightly OT, and tell me if I am looking at a cold rain or snow event in N. Central Connecticut from this system as it tracks NE? I think reading between the lines in the SNE forum, maybe a start as snow/mix before a flip to rain. Hard to tell...things got ugly in there quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So nice to see this again. It's a start, i still thing the lack of moisture and glancing blow of the best forcing will keep ratios in the 12:1 to 15:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Anyone know how the Euro looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z Euro cuts down on the big QPF amounts from its 0z run. Still .30"-.35" at DPA/ORD/MDW. GRR around .55" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Of course, this is projected to hit right when my flight is supposed to land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z Euro cuts down on the big QPF amounts from its 0z run. Still .30"-.35" at DPA/ORD/MDW. Nice, i'd still take that and run no doubt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like the Euro cut the qpf by about half for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z Euro cuts down on the big QPF amounts from its 0z run. Still .30"-.35" at DPA/ORD/MDW. GRR around .55" I don't think we're done seeing the swings yet, hopefully we can hang in the .25-.30 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z Euro cuts down on the big QPF amounts from its 0z run. Still .30"-.35" at DPA/ORD/MDW. GRR around .55" A slight step back, but still a nice hit. Combine the winds and it should be a nice wintry scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think reading between the lines in the SNE forum, maybe a start as snow/mix before a flip to rain. Hard to tell...things got ugly in there quickly. Haha thanks! Now you can understand why I came back to the L/OV for assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 A slight step back, but still a nice hit. Combine the winds and it should be a nice wintry scene. yep, you gotta imagine given the complex interactions that future shifts for better or worse are pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like the Euro cut the qpf by about half for LAF. Blah. No matter though, hopefully someone in this forum gets some love from this storm. The pickings have been slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yep, you gotta imagine given the complex interactions that future shifts for better or worse are pretty likely. Yeah I suppose so. Far from a done deal. I guess for your sake, as well as everyone else up north, QPF continues in the 0.20-0.30" ballpark...which of course would be a good snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice, i'd still take that and run no doubt.. Ditto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Blah. No matter though, hopefully someone in this forum gets some love from this storm. The pickings have been slim. We'd probably squeeze out 2-3" on this run...better than everything else save the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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