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January 12-14 Potential storm


dilly84

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Worse case scenario 1 to 2" best case 3 to 5". Right now its a "solid" 1 to 3"+ event for the DET area.

Advisory would be very welcome but certainly not necessary. I will take a "nuisance" snow anyday, especially in a winter like this. Its now been one month ago today (Dec 10th) since we last had a snow-depth of 1" (in that timeframe we have accumulated 1.7" total on 6 different days).

EURO ftw!

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Looks like .25-.30 for NE Illinois north of 88 with 13-15:1 rations a solid 4ish inch hit.

Solid advisory event.

Feeling a little better than we can squeeze out an inch or so here. Unless of course the Euro continues with its solution...not holding my breath though.

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Some SWS's from IWX:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

INZ013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-

024-025-102200-

PULASKI-FULTON IN-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-

HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-

DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...

ROCHESTER...AKRON...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...

FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...

LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...

WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...

OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...

HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...BRYAN...

WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...

HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...

ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...

VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

MORNING...

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL DEEPEN

SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY

NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR

AND A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLE HEAVY...THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO

FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT

TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH AND

WEST OF A MONTICELLO TO FORT WAYNE TO OTTAWA LINE. IN

ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ALONG PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 65 AND 69

AS WELL AS HIGHWAYS 421...35...31...27 AND 127. THERE IS STILL

SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE EVENTUAL

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA

FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

INZ003>005-MIZ077>079-102200-

LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...

MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...

NAPPANEE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...

DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...

WHITE PIGEON...MENDON

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 /315 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012/

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

FRIDAY NIGHT...

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL DEEPEN

SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY

NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR

AND A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLE HEAVY...THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL

FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO

EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED NORTH

OF HIGHWAY 6. SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WILL BE

POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. IN

ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LIKELY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME

DIFFICULT OVER SECTIONS OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD...INTERSTATE

94...AND HIGHWAYS 6...12...31...AND 20. THERE IS STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE EVENTUAL

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA

FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

INZ006>009-012-014-016-MIZ080-081-102200-

LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-MARSHALL-KOSCIUSKO-BRANCH-

HILLSDALE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...

ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...

GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...

CULVER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLDWATER...

BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 /315 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012/

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON...

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL DEEPEN

SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY

NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR

AND A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLE HEAVY...THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL

FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER

MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY

30. SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY

WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW LIKELY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ALONG SECTIONS OF THE

HIGHWAYS 6...13...15...20...30...AND 31. THERE IS STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE EVENTUAL

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA

FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

I posted a couple days ago that it was way too early to be throwing towels for the Lakes region. Models were in "catch-up" mode, and may not be done playing that game yet.

Now for my real :weenie: post:

Thursday, 26-Jan-78

Thursday, 12-Jan-12

I like the similarities.. :snowwindow:

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Advisory would be very welcome but certainly not necessary. I will take a "nuisance" snow anyday, especially in a winter like this. Its now been one month ago today (Dec 10th) since we last had a snow-depth of 1" (in that timeframe we have accumulated 1.7" total on 6 different days).

EURO ftw!

1-2 inches of high ratio fluff won't last long in the sun. Even when it's in the mid 20s.

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Solid advisory event.

Feeling a little better than we can squeeze out an inch or so here. Unless of course the Euro continues with its solution...not holding my breath though.

Feeling decent up this way, Harry mentioned that the 0z OP Euro had great ensemble agreement and the GFS's ensembles have often included more amped versions of the OP, so it will be interesting to see what 12z's look like. Either way most models are coming into agreement on .25-.30 liquid over the area which should fluff up nicely.

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Some SWS's from IWX:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

INZ013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-

024-025-102200-

PULASKI-FULTON IN-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-

HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-

DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...

ROCHESTER...AKRON...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...

FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...

LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...

WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...

OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...

HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...BRYAN...

WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...

HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...

ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...

VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

MORNING...

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL DEEPEN

SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY

NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR

AND A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLE HEAVY...THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO

FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT

TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH AND

WEST OF A MONTICELLO TO FORT WAYNE TO OTTAWA LINE. IN

ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ALONG PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 65 AND 69

AS WELL AS HIGHWAYS 421...35...31...27 AND 127. THERE IS STILL

SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE EVENTUAL

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA

FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

INZ003>005-MIZ077>079-102200-

LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...

MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...

NAPPANEE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...

DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...

WHITE PIGEON...MENDON

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 /315 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012/

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

FRIDAY NIGHT...

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL DEEPEN

SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY

NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR

AND A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLE HEAVY...THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL

FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO

EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED NORTH

OF HIGHWAY 6. SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WILL BE

POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. IN

ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LIKELY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME

DIFFICULT OVER SECTIONS OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD...INTERSTATE

94...AND HIGHWAYS 6...12...31...AND 20. THERE IS STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE EVENTUAL

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA

FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

INZ006>009-012-014-016-MIZ080-081-102200-

LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-MARSHALL-KOSCIUSKO-BRANCH-

HILLSDALE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...

ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...

GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...

CULVER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLDWATER...

BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE

415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 /315 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012/

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON...

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL DEEPEN

SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY

NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR

AND A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLE HEAVY...THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL

FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER

MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY

30. SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY

WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW LIKELY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ALONG SECTIONS OF THE

HIGHWAYS 6...13...15...20...30...AND 31. THERE IS STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE EVENTUAL

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA

FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

I posted a couple days ago that it was way too early to be throwing towels for the Lakes region. Models were in "catch-up" mode, and may not be done playing that game yet.

Now for my real :weenie: post:

Thursday, 26-Jan-78

Thursday, 12-Jan-12

I like the similarities.. :snowwindow:

I seriously want to smack the weenie out of you for the 1978 reference. Lol :-)

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Feeling decent up this way, Harry mentioned that the 0z OP Euro had great ensemble agreement and the GFS's ensembles have often included more amped versions of the OP, so it will be interesting to see what 12z's look like. Either way most models are coming into agreement on .25-.30 liquid over the area which should fluff up nicely.

The Euro ensemble agreement is reassuring no doubt. Let's hope it holds.

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Solid advisory event.

Feeling a little better than we can squeeze out an inch or so here. Unless of course the Euro continues with its solution...not holding my breath though.

It's much more questionable for us than farther north. The Euro/ensembles are not a bad thing to have going for us.

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