wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 that's about as best spread the qpf and snow love as it gets. Tropical guaranteed me there would be no snow this week. What do you think about that right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Tropical guaranteed me there would be no snow this week. What do you think about that right now? We're gonna get buried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Where the hell is Alek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Where the hell is Alek? I think he mainly posts in the morning/early afternoon, or pretty much the opposite of me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 hey hey Joe is back everyone!!! i'm still in the realist camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i'm still in the realist camp. Winter has to start at some point, maybe this is the push over the cliff coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hmm. an den? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I see the ECMWF catching on to the general QPF scenario I thought would be a bit more realistic, especially with the band of post-frontal snows. However, it appears to be doing this through a combination of even stronger mid/upper forcing than the 12Z run had (it actually closes off the mid-level low quite early this time around) and allows the wave to catch some of the elevated warm conveyor belt moisture from the first southern wave. We'll see if this pans out. Keep an eye on that ensemble spread when it comes out. If it appears to be in good agreement between the members, then the deterministic model has a good shot at being right. Obviously we're still dealing with "second-hand" moisture here and it's confined from 700 on up for the most part, which will limit the totals. Very cold low-mid level temps (850s < -10C !) may make for some decently high ratios though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I see the ECMWF catching on to the general QPF scenario I thought would be a bit more realistic, especially with the band of post-frontal snows. However, it appears to be doing this through a combination of even stronger mid/upper forcing than the 12Z run had (it actually closes off the mid-level low quite early this time around) and allows the wave to catch some of the elevated warm conveyor belt moisture from the first southern wave. We'll see if this pans out. Keep an eye on that ensemble spread when it comes out. If it appears to be in good agreement between the members, then the deterministic model has a good shot at being right. Obviously we're still dealing with "second-hand" moisture here and it's confined from 700 on up for the most part, which will limit the totals. Very cold low-mid level temps (850s < -10C !) may make for some decently high ratios though. 00z euro ensembles are out.. Cant get any better agreement from the ensembles. The ensemble mean is basically a duplicate of the euro itself. Surface low crawls north from Ohio to near Detroit and the southern end of Huron and then moves off to the ene/ne. Gets down into the 980-994mb range.. .50+ from Milwaukee/Chicago-E.IL into all of MI and IN. Thats the ensemble mean QPF. 500 low is about as strong and closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I like what DTX has to say! PREFERENCE LIES WITH A GFS/ECMWF TYPE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...A SOLUTION THAT KEEPS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS. THE MOST ACTIVE TIMEFRAME FROM A SYSTEM RELATIVE PERSPECTIVE APPEARS IN STORE FROM 18Z THUR TO 00Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WHISTLING THROUGH THE AREA...KICKSTARTING AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S PRIOR TO 18Z...THEN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DIFFICULT TO SAY. THE BIGGEST OUTLYING QUESTION REMAINS...WHERE EXACTLY WILL THE INSTA-OCCLUSION HAPPEN THURSDAY NIGHT. 10.00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION PINPOINTS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WHICH WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW RATES AND SUBSEQUENT AMOUNTS. GIVEN SUCH A DEPENDENCE ON THE TROWAL FEATURE/OCCLUSION ALOFT IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO VENTURE ANY GUESSES ON SNOW AMOUNTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY THOUGH...THERE IS A GOOD BET THAT MOST AREAS WILL AT LEAST SEE AN ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE IN THE 20S WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 why did I even look at the 6z gfs O well hopefully the euro looks promising yet when I get back from ice fishing this afternoon.. Ice was sketchy yesterday but I just can't let a day like today go by with ligh winds and torch.. Froze our butts off and left after 2 hrs yesterday because the dam wind was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm 100% not buying qpf amounts over .3 with this thing, 700mb looks awfully dry and we'll have no real gulf moisture connection...I see the 0z Euro went a little nuts with ill and the forcing managed .50+ amounts, really hard to imagine. Ratios will likely be beefy no matter what. Still like a 1-2" event and a fairly widespread one at that, especially across N. Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan, but places just north of here and along the western shore of MI could make it to advisory levels (not including LE). It's nice to have something to watch without having major thermal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think he mainly posts in the morning/early afternoon, or pretty much the opposite of me lol. Correct but I'll post during evenings if there's something worthwhile to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 from Gino PROBABLY THE MOST NOTEWORTHY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. MODELS (SAVE FOR THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED) HAVE ALL TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH CUTTING OFF THE H5 LOW...TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA OR MAYBE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...THE STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE QUITE EFFICIENT AT SQUEEZING WHAT LITTLE BIT OF JUICE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS IN IT. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY IN THE 0.15-0.3" RANGE...AM CONCERNED THAT THE SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE LARGER THAN AVERAGE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND -15C RESULTING IN A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WELL OVER 100MB DEEP FOR A TIME THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. CERTAINLY LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS WITH THE MORNING PRODUCTS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 IIRC past events with deep DGZs and limited moisture are a mixed bag, I'm going to have to look at things a little closer later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 IIRC past events with deep DGZs and limited moisture are a mixed bag, I'm going to have to look at things a little closer later this morning. Despite what the euro and it's ensembles show i am gonna wait till the 00z runs before i get too excited even if the 12z run shows a epic bomb. And yeah i would like to see the GFS totally join the euro. One of the reasons for the better moisture/qpf is because the models have been trending towards a more westerly and weaker southern system. Yes that helps our cause. IF this trend does continue then yeah we could be looking at a totally different ball game. Especially if we totally lose that eastcoast low. Thus why yeah i'll take the wait and see approach for another couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 03z SREF mean was a major shift west compared to earlier runs, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 00z euro ensembles are out.. Cant get any better agreement from the ensembles. The ensemble mean is basically a duplicate of the euro itself. Surface low crawls north from Ohio to near Detroit and the southern end of Huron and then moves off to the ene/ne. Gets down into the 980-994mb range.. .50+ from Milwaukee/Chicago-E.IL into all of MI and IN. Thats the ensemble mean QPF. 500 low is about as strong and closed off. We have a long way to go but this is pretty big. Without getting too much into a model debate, if I could ask for one thing at this range, it would be a good OP Euro run with excellent model support. On the flip side, i couldn't care less that the NAM is showing nothing...it's amazing what a winter of massive failure will do to your model perceptions...and we're finally starting to see some movement in the SREFs, which will hopefully continue. Agreement amongst the 0z GFS ensembles is also slowly improving. Confidence in a 1-2" event for MBY is approaching med/high with confidence in a solid advisory level event now low/med. Despite what the euro and it's ensembles show i am gonna wait till the 00z runs before i get too excited even if the 12z run shows a epic bomb. And yeah i would like to see the GFS totally join the euro. One of the reasons for the better moisture/qpf is because the models have been trending towards a more westerly and weaker southern system. Yes that helps our cause. IF this trend does continue then yeah we could be looking at a totally different ball game. Especially if we totally lose that eastcoast low. Thus why yeah i'll take the wait and see approach for another couple of runs. We haven't come close to locking into a solution yet and there is probably a lot of evolution left but at least we're trending in the right direction for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 SEMI is dangerously close from getting sucker punched with this system. Another 30-50 miles more east and were gold Another 30-50 miles more west and we're screwed. Either way we'll be dry slotted given how close the surface low is tracking (overhead). If we can't get enough for an advisory event, then this might as well miss us. Nuisance snow is a nuisance while having to be out and about. Western and Northern Michigan is especially golden however. The Battle Creek-Hillsdale-Angola area for all intents and purposes has pretty much been the snow magnet in an otherwise not-so-good start to the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i'm still in the realist camp. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Another 30-50 miles more west and we're screwed. Either way we'll be dry slotted given how close the surface low is tracking (overhead). If we can't get enough for an advisory event, then this might as well miss us. Nuisance snow is a nuisance while having to be out and about. Western and Northern Michigan is especially golden however. The Battle Creek-Hillsdale-Angola area for all intents and purposes has pretty much been the snow magnet in an otherwise not-so-good start to the winter. Not really a solid event for the area. Although 3 days out is lots of time so I would not be shocked to see adjustments in either direction. Can't win em all. Glad to see the snowless areas to the west get there winters share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Not really a solid event for the area. Although 3 days out is lots of time so I would not be shocked to see adjustments in either direction. Can't win em all. Glad to see the snowless areas to the west get there winters share. Worse case scenario 1 to 2" best case 3 to 5". Right now its a "solid" 1 to 3"+ event for the DET area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Triple phaser potential returning? If the ull can dig far enough south, it could explode. Serious issues to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Worse case scenario 1 to 2" best case 3 to 5". Right now its a "solid" 1 to 3"+ event for the DET area. Meh. I'm not buying the moisture/QPF right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Meh. I'm not buying the moisture/QPF right now. Very High ratios Thursday night. 0.15" QPF = 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Want to see some mad agreement in the 12z models. Is that a little to much to ask for? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Damn, I should have stayed up for the Euro. Feels kinda strange tracking a potential snowstorm right now. Still very much in wait and see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Jon dee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Another 30-50 miles more west and we're screwed. Either way we'll be dry slotted given how close the surface low is tracking (overhead). If we can't get enough for an advisory event, then this might as well miss us. Nuisance snow is a nuisance while having to be out and about. Western and Northern Michigan is especially golden however. The Battle Creek-Hillsdale-Angola area for all intents and purposes has pretty much been the snow magnet in an otherwise not-so-good start to the winter. Yes we have, and thanks for noticing because it's a rare occurance that feels pretty nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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