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January 12-14 Potential storm


dilly84

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0z ECMWF:

LSE:

THU 06Z 12-JAN  -2.8	-6.1	1007	  77	 100	0.04	 537	 532  
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -4.5   -10.1	1007	  74	  99	0.09	 533	 528  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.0   -13.3	1008	  64	  99	0.09	 531	 525  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -8.5   -14.4	1010	  65	  99	0.07	 531	 523  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -9.6   -13.4	1011	  63	  96	0.04	 531	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN -13.0   -11.3	1014	  66	  46	0.01	 531	 520

MSN:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -0.7	-4.2	1002	  88	  76	0.02	 536	 534  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -2.3	-7.0	1002	  78	  93	0.10	 532	 530  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -10.4	1004	  74	  98	0.13	 530	 527  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.9   -12.4	1007	  70	  96	0.08	 530	 525  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.4   -13.6	1010	  70	  94	0.01	 531	 523

MKE:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.3	-3.4	 998	  96	  97	0.07	 533	 534  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -2.5	-6.7	1000	  83	  99	0.20	 530	 530  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.9	-9.9	1003	  77	  99	0.16	 529	 526  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.7   -13.6	1007	  72	  96	0.06	 530	 525  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.3   -13.8	1011	  63	  87	0.01	 531	 523

SBM:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.1	-3.3	 999	  88	  98	0.06	 533	 534  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -3.6	-6.9	1001	  80	 100	0.17	 531	 530  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.3   -10.0	1003	  74	  98	0.13	 529	 527  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -13.8	1006	  71	  95	0.04	 529	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.1   -13.6	1011	  63	  51	0.01	 530	 522

CID:

THU 06Z 12-JAN  -2.2	-6.2	1008	  71	 100	0.01	 539	 533  
THU 12Z 12-JAN  -6.4	-9.5	1008	  64	 100	0.08	 533	 526  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -6.2   -13.7	1008	  62	 100	0.10	 529	 523  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -15.3	1011	  63	  98	0.08	 530	 521  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -8.0   -13.9	1012	  60	 100	0.04	 531	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN -10.3   -10.8	1015	  56	  63	0.01	 532	 521

DVN:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -3.8	-7.3	1005	  74	 100	0.06	 534	 530  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -4.6   -11.3	1005	  71	 100	0.16	 530	 526  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.2   -13.9	1008	  73	  98	0.11	 529	 523  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.7   -14.2	1010	  70	  94	0.05	 530	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -9.4   -12.3	1013	  65	  95	0.01	 532	 522

PIA:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -1.6	-5.4	1004	  78	  84	0.01	 536	 533  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -4.7   -10.8	1004	  71	  99	0.13	 529	 526  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.0   -13.8	1007	  73	 100	0.13	 528	 522  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -7.2   -14.5	1010	  73	  89	0.05	 530	 522  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -8.7   -13.6	1013	  67	  99	0.01	 532	 522

ORD:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.9	-3.7	 998	  94	  99	0.10	 532	 534  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.9	-6.8	 999	  87	 100	0.26	 529	 529  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.4	-9.9	1003	  81	  99	0.19	 528	 526  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.0   -12.8	1008	  76	 100	0.07	 530	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.1   -14.1	1011	  64	  95	0.01	 532	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.8   -13.1	1016	  74	  35	0.01	 533	 521

MDW:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.8	-3.7	 998	  94	  99	0.09	 532	 534  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.3	-6.8	 999	  88	 100	0.27	 529	 529  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -4.8   -10.3	1003	  82	  99	0.20	 528	 525  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.6   -12.9	1008	  76	  99	0.08	 530	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.2   -14.2	1012	  66	  96	0.01	 532	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.9   -13.7	1016	  72	  42	0.01	 533	 521

DEC:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   0.8	-4.1	1003	  92	  52	0.01	 538	 535  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -4.7   -10.2	1004	  70	  99	0.09	 529	 526  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -6.3   -14.5	1008	  69	  99	0.10	 526	 520  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -15.4	1010	  66	  90	0.04	 529	 521

STL:

THU 12Z 12-JAN  -1.2	-8.2	1007	  76	 100	0.04	 536	 530  
THU 18Z 12-JAN  -2.7   -14.5	1009	  55	  98	0.09	 527	 520  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.5   -15.5	1012	  57	  98	0.03	 527	 518  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -4.8   -15.7	1014	  53	  95	0.02	 531	 520

PAH:

THU 06Z 12-JAN   7.2	 3.2	1004	  78	  46	0.01	 550	 547  
THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.1	-2.1	1005	  83	  76	0.00	 541	 537  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.3   -10.6	1008	  58	  92	0.07	 530	 524  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -0.8   -12.6	1012	  46	  99	0.01	 526	 517

IND:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.2	 1.3	1000	  98	  69	0.01	 542	 543  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.8	-3.5	 999	  92	  85	0.07	 533	 534  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.8   -11.9	1004	  70	  99	0.07	 526	 523  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -6.2   -13.6	1006	  70	  99	0.08	 526	 521  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.7   -14.7	1010	  68	  91	0.03	 530	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.7   -15.8	1014	  56	  91	0.02	 534	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.8   -14.7	1018	  59	 100	0.01	 535	 521  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -7.4   -11.0	1019	  60	  55	0.01	 536	 521

LAF:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.7	 0.6	 999	  95	  61	0.00	 541	 541  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   0.7	-4.1	 999	  92	  86	0.10	 532	 534  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.5	-9.7	1002	  78	 100	0.13	 527	 525  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.5   -11.8	1005	  80	 100	0.17	 527	 523  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.0   -13.7	1009	  76	  91	0.06	 530	 523  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.4   -14.8	1013	  65	  99	0.02	 534	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.7   -14.4	1017	  70	 100	0.01	 534	 521  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN -11.2   -10.6	1019	  69	  38	0.01	 535	 521

VPZ:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.5	 0.3	 999	  93	  82	0.00	 540	 540  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.7	-2.7	 997	  97	 100	0.04	 533	 535  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -0.1	-6.0	 997	  96	 100	0.33	 528	 531  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -3.6   -10.9	1001	  85	 100	0.28	 527	 526  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -6.4   -13.5	1007	  79	  96	0.14	 530	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -14.8	1011	  69	 100	0.03	 532	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.4   -14.3	1016	  76	  68	0.02	 533	 521  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -9.5   -12.4	1018	  78	  30	0.01	 534	 520

OKK:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.8	 0.8	 999	  97	  41	0.00	 542	 543  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.6	-1.6	 997	  98	 100	0.07	 534	 536  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -4.0	-8.2	1000	  80	  99	0.14	 527	 527  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.1   -10.1	1002	  84	  99	0.20	 526	 524  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -7.0   -13.3	1008	  81	  93	0.12	 529	 523  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -7.0   -14.9	1012	  71	  97	0.04	 533	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.2   -14.6	1017	  75	 100	0.01	 534	 521  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -9.3   -12.3	1018	  72	  41	0.01	 535	 521

FWA:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.8	 0.7	 998	  96	  57	0.01	 542	 544  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   5.6	-0.7	 995	  84	  83	0.01	 535	 539  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.8	-5.2	 997	  88	  97	0.21	 528	 531  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -3.7	-6.1	 996	  89	  99	0.25	 525	 528  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.7   -11.1	1004	  85	 100	0.22	 527	 524  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -6.9   -13.0	1010	  81	 100	0.04	 532	 524  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -7.6   -13.4	1015	  79	  98	0.01	 534	 522  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.5   -13.2	1017	  79	  41	0.01	 534	 521

HAO:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.8	 1.9	 999	  97	  59	0.01	 545	 546  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   5.8	-0.4	 998	  95	  76	0.06	 536	 538  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -1.7	-9.7	1002	  77	  99	0.05	 527	 525  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.1   -14.1	1005	  63	  98	0.02	 524	 520  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.8   -14.9	1009	  61	  93	0.02	 529	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.7   -15.3	1013	  53	 100	0.02	 533	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.4   -14.8	1017	  59	  99	0.01	 535	 522  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -5.5   -13.1	1018	  63	  98	0.02	 535	 520

DAY:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   4.1	 1.4	 998	  97	  50	0.02	 545	 546  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   5.5	-0.5	 997	  92	  96	0.03	 537	 540  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN  -0.8	-7.3	1000	  86	  95	0.06	 528	 528  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -5.6   -13.2	1003	  67	  99	0.04	 523	 521  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.9   -13.0	1007	  67	  98	0.08	 527	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.7   -15.2	1011	  58	 100	0.04	 532	 523  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.6   -15.0	1016	  61	  99	0.02	 535	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.5   -13.4	1018	  68	  99	0.01	 534	 520

CMH:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   5.7	 3.7	 997	  96	  94	0.03	 545	 548  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   7.4	-0.1	 996	  78	  92	0.01	 539	 542  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.8	-4.9	 997	  92	  94	0.08	 530	 532  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -4.5   -13.1	1002	  64	 100	0.02	 521	 520  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -5.2   -12.6	1005	  65	 100	0.08	 526	 522  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.0   -14.4	1010	  58	  96	0.03	 530	 522  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.8   -14.3	1015	  57	 100	0.03	 535	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.0   -13.3	1017	  66	 100	0.01	 534	 521  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -6.5   -13.4	1019	  67	  40	0.01	 535	 520

TDZ:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.9	 0.3	 994	  93	  61	0.04	 537	 542  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.7	-2.0	 994	  96	  96	0.05	 531	 536  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -3.5	-6.2	 995	  80	  98	0.07	 524	 528  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.2	-8.4	 997	  85	 100	0.09	 525	 527  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -1.9   -12.1	1004	  68	 100	0.08	 528	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -3.4   -12.8	1011	  77	  99	0.06	 533	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -5.8   -13.7	1014	  71	  39	0.03	 532	 521

CLE:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   5.5	 1.6	 994	  91	  79	0.04	 540	 545  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   5.2	-1.1	 994	  93	  87	0.03	 533	 538  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -2.3	-7.3	 996	  72	  90	0.02	 524	 527  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -2.9	-7.7	 996	  80	 100	0.04	 523	 526  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -2.0   -11.4	1003	  72	  99	0.12	 527	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.0   -12.3	1010	  73	  97	0.11	 531	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -4.7   -13.9	1013	  75	  76	0.07	 532	 522  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -6.4   -15.2	1017	  72	  33	0.02	 532	 519  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.4   -15.4	1018	  63	  39	0.01	 532	 517  
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -6.1   -14.8	1019	  71	  41	0.01	 532	 517  
SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -6.3   -14.5	1021	  72	  34	0.01	 533	 517  
SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -7.9   -14.6	1024	  72	  42	0.01	 537	 518

MKG:

 
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.6    -1.2	 996	  93	  99    0.04	 534	 537   
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.4    -3.7	 995	  97	 100    0.18	 530	 534   
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -1.3    -8.5	 997	  84	 100    0.19	 527	 529   
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.3   -12.3    1002	  78	  98    0.16	 528	 526   
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.3   -13.4    1007	  69	  99    0.06	 530	 525   
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.4   -13.8    1013	  72	  34    0.02	 531	 521   
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -6.6   -14.6    1015	  74	  37    0.01	 530	 518   
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -7.1   -14.6    1017	  71	  34    0.01	 530	 517   
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -4.8   -14.7    1018	  66	  28    0.01	 531	 517   
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -3.7   -14.4    1019	  58	  35    0.01	 533	 518   
SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -5.3   -13.8    1021	  66	  69    0.01	 535	 519

GRR:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.3	 0.0	 998	  91	  96	0.01	 540	 542  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.7	-1.2	 995	  96	  98	0.04	 535	 539  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.1	-4.4	 994	  99	  99	0.13	 530	 535  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -0.5	-7.9	 995	  92	  99	0.18	 526	 530  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -4.3   -11.3	1001	  84	  97	0.19	 527	 526  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -4.2   -13.2	1006	  69	 100	0.08	 530	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.4   -13.0	1012	  75	  50	0.02	 532	 522

BTL:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.2	 0.0	 998	  97	  90	0.02	 541	 543  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   3.2	-1.1	 995	  95	  99	0.03	 535	 539  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   1.3	-3.8	 994	  99	  99	0.11	 530	 535  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   0.1	-6.8	 994	  94	 100	0.16	 526	 530  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -3.6   -11.2	1000	  86	  99	0.18	 527	 526  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.6   -12.6	1006	  72	  97	0.08	 530	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.4   -13.2	1012	  77	  81	0.03	 532	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.3   -13.7	1016	  82	  31	0.01	 532	 520  
SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -8.1   -14.3	1018	  74	  37	0.01	 531	 518  
SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -5.5   -14.4	1018	  69	  30	0.01	 531	 517  
SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -7.1   -14.3	1019	  71	  28	0.01	 533	 518

ADG:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   3.5	 1.6	 996	  97	  97	0.09	 542	 545  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.0	-0.6	 994	  93	  90	0.03	 537	 541  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.6	-2.7	 993	  97	  97	0.05	 530	 536  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -2.4	-5.3	 993	  89	  98	0.14	 525	 530  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -1.6	-9.1	 998	  85	  99	0.13	 525	 527  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.0   -12.6	1004	  68	  98	0.07	 529	 526  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.4   -13.3	1011	  74	  99	0.03	 532	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -7.4   -12.9	1015	  74	  32	0.01	 532	 521

DTW:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.0	 0.4	 993	  96	  96	0.08	 538	 543  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.2	-2.1	 992	  96	  91	0.04	 531	 537  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN  -1.2	-5.0	 992	  90	  99	0.07	 525	 531  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.7	-8.6	 996	  84	  99	0.10	 524	 528  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -2.7   -13.0	1003	  65	  97	0.06	 527	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -4.5   -14.2	1010	  69	  98	0.03	 532	 524  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -8.6   -13.0	1014	  69	  30	0.01	 532	 521

PHN:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   4.4	 0.9	 993	  97	  99	0.19	 538	 544  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   3.6	-1.2	 991	  98	  94	0.08	 532	 539  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   1.4	-4.0	 990	  97	  98	0.04	 526	 534  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.3	-7.4	 993	  87	  99	0.11	 524	 530  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -3.6   -13.0	1001	  68	  96	0.06	 525	 525  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.6   -15.9	1009	  69	  96	0.04	 530	 523

YKF:

THU 18Z 12-JAN   1.7	 0.7	 996	  98	  98	0.09	 540	 544  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.1	-1.2	 993	  98	  94	0.14	 535	 541  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   2.4	-2.3	 990	  98	  98	0.07	 528	 536  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -2.6	-6.6	 992	  85	 100	0.03	 523	 529  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN  -1.0	-8.7	 993	  77	  99	0.08	 523	 529  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -6.5   -15.2	1005	  67	  96	0.05	 527	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN -10.2   -16.1	1011	  67	  92	0.01	 529	 521

YYZ:

THU 12Z 12-JAN   2.0	 0.4	1002	  97	  97	0.11	 544	 543  
THU 18Z 12-JAN   2.0	-0.1	 997	  96	 100	0.17	 541	 543  
FRI 00Z 13-JAN   2.3	-0.7	 994	  96	  99	0.14	 536	 542  
FRI 06Z 13-JAN   3.7	-1.8	 990	  95	  99	0.09	 529	 537  
FRI 12Z 13-JAN  -0.7	-5.7	 991	  83	  99	0.05	 523	 530  
FRI 18Z 13-JAN   0.7	-7.1	 991	  78	  97	0.07	 523	 530  
SAT 00Z 14-JAN  -5.6   -14.3	1003	  71	  96	0.06	 526	 523  
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -9.7   -15.7	1010	  71	  91	0.02	 528	 521

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Adjustments are likely.. this low needs to track just a little further east....still tons of potential, and also great ratios with this..

SEMI is dangerously close from getting sucker punched with this system. Another 30-50 miles more east and were gold

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I know joe will have them but here are some cities anyways

MOP: 0.51

BTL: 0.56

GRR: 0.60

DTW: 0.26

PTK: 0.29

ORD: 0.62

LAF: 0.38-0.48

MKE: 0.49

What hour is that through? Is that the whole event? They seem a little low considering what i am seing elsewhere? Almost looks like the GFS..

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What hour is that through? Is that the whole event? They seem a little low considering what i am seing elsewhere? Almost looks like the 12z run..

Just look at Joe's Spoiler for BTL, some of that QPF wasn't snow, so the .56" I posted was QPF that would be snowfall.

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Just look at Joe's Spoiler for BTL, some of that QPF wasn't snow, so the .56" I posted was QPF that would be snowfall.

Thanks. I'll have to drop someone a line because yeah the maps appear to be a bit off especially for places like Detroit. Map has .75+ total QPF for the whole event from here over to Detroit. Even a blob of 1+ in nw OH.

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