Rainman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I spent the last 4 hours at a titty bar getting drunk. I suggest some of you do the same. You mean to tell me that you put naked women and alcohol ahead of the 00Z GFS FOR CHRIST'S SAKE? Traitor. THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST ABOUT TO BE SAMPLED FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! SAMPLED!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I spent the last 4 hours at a titty bar getting drunk. I suggest some of you do the same. Thread over. Atta boy Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I just wanted to be the first to congratulate BowMe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think we can chuck this turd on the pile of crap this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think we can chuck this turd on the pile of crap this winter has been. I'm still holding out hope to double my season total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm still holding out hope to double my season total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm still holding out hope to double my season total. If you're rooting for sub 9" you should be rooting against everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm still holding out hope to double my season total. Same here; if you take a consensus approach, it will be close. I'll say around an inch, maybe two for now, and our total is 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think we can chuck this turd on the pile of crap this winter has been. You know its a god awful winter when a Meteorologist showing frustration! Now that's funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I spent the last 4 hours at a titty bar getting drunk. I suggest some of you do the same. Very nice. Post of the year in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z Euro isn't terrible for the Lakes especially in the context of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Same here; if you take a consensus approach, it will be close. I'll say around an inch, maybe two for now, and our total is 1.5". 12z Euro has about .3" qpf for MKE with .5 up toward Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z Euro isn't terrible for the Lakes especially in the context of this winter. spits out a inch or two here given the higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z Euro has about .3" qpf for MKE with .5 up toward Green Bay. Excellent. I hope this verifies. WI needs some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 just glancing at e-wall, hrs 72-96 look a lot better than they actually are based on the responses in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z Euro has about .3" qpf for MKE with .5 up toward Green Bay. That's the first Euro run that likely shows us getting more than inch of snow in the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Just looked at the Wundermap snow map for the 12z Euro, and something looks wrong with the way the snow is appearing to be drifting east away from WI/N IL at 78 hours, then snow blows up and expands west at the 81 hour mark. I'm not sure what is going on synoptically in that solution, but it seems unlikely unless it's an ULL that changes course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 FWIW the 12z GFS ensembles show much more support for some snow in the region than they did at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 FWIW the 12z GFS ensembles show much more support for some snow in the region than they did at 0z. There's a couple of members that develop a second, pretty good, storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z GEM looks good too for northern IL/southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 FWIW the 12z GFS ensembles show much more support for some snow in the region than they did at 0z. Meh. Realistically, those ensembles are just showing that pretty much anything >48 hrs is very uncertain and unreliable. There's a huge spread there. The best we could realistically hope for is some quick hitting snow from the rather impressive DPVA progged with the main northern stream energy and the favorable placement of a jet streak at that time. There's some decent mid-level frontogenesis behind the main surface cold front. The main mitigating factors are a lack of forcing in the lower levels and moisture. I could see that strong forcing overwhelming those negatives for a brief while to give a quick shot of decent snow rates and the models are even trying to print some light QPF to that effect. We had a similar situation in December where the models underestimated the QPF (in a post-front, strong DPVA setup), but don't go looking for big amounts. It would be a minor event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 There's a couple of members that develop a second, pretty good, storm. saw that for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Meh. Realistically, those ensembles are just showing that pretty much anything >48 hrs is very uncertain and unreliable. There's a huge spread there. The best we could realistically hope for is some quick hitting snow from the rather impressive DPVA progged with the main northern stream energy and the favorable placement of a jet streak at that time. There's some decent mid-level frontogenesis behind the main surface cold front. The main mitigating factors are a lack of forcing in the lower levels and moisture. I could see that strong forcing overwhelming those negatives for a brief while to give a quick shot of decent snow rates and the models are even trying to print some light QPF to that effect. We had a similar situation in December where the models underestimated the QPF (in a post-front, strong DPVA setup), but don't go looking for big amounts. It would be a minor event at best. I think the ceiling for this one IMBY is around 3", which is hardly worth getting excited about in a normal year but big time this season. LOT's thoughts from last night are similar and I the 12z runs have only reinforced this solution STRATUS DECK SHOULD BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED BY THURSDAY MORNING WITHSMALL PERTURBATIONS LIKELY TO PIVOT AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX AND LEAD TO FLURRIES AND PROBABLY SOME HEALTHY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION...SO WITH STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION IT WON`T TAKE MUCH EFFORT FOR SNOW AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISING FOR SOME AREAS TO PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think the ceiling for this one IMBY is around 3", which is hardly worth getting excited about in a normal year but big time this season. LOT's thoughts from last night are similar and I the 12z runs have only reinforced this solution I believe Gino wrote the morning AFD. Right now I'd be happy with a solid 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I believe Gino wrote the morning AFD. Right now I'd be happy with a solid 1.5" how the mighty have fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 how the mighty have fallen just goes to show how bad its been it has been so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I believe Gino wrote the morning AFD. Right now I'd be happy with a solid 1.5" We could double our season total and I am stuck in Connecticut... Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Meh. Realistically, those ensembles are just showing that pretty much anything >48 hrs is very uncertain and unreliable. There's a huge spread there. The best we could realistically hope for is some quick hitting snow from the rather impressive DPVA progged with the main northern stream energy and the favorable placement of a jet streak at that time. There's some decent mid-level frontogenesis behind the main surface cold front. The main mitigating factors are a lack of forcing in the lower levels and moisture. I could see that strong forcing overwhelming those negatives for a brief while to give a quick shot of decent snow rates and the models are even trying to print some light QPF to that effect. We had a similar situation in December where the models underestimated the QPF (in a post-front, strong DPVA setup), but don't go looking for big amounts. It would be a minor event at best. Could you more often please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I believe Gino wrote the morning AFD. Right now I'd be happy with a solid 1.5" That was Izzi who wrote that! I'd be happy if the grass just got covered over and the snow would stick around longer than 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Lock this baby in Some Lake moisture possible too according to LOT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK THUR...AS PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WINDS OVER NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN COULD BE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS COULD EASILY FAVOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THUR...THEN WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE COLD POOL AND PUSHES ANY LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS TO NORTHWEST IN AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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