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January 12-14 Potential storm


dilly84

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Wave interaction isn't as favorable on the 12z Euro.  Looks like maybe rain ending as snow but not much to write home about.

Edit: Maybe a little better out toward W PA/W NY?

At this point I wasn't too nit picky about the details, just glad there is something to finally keep an eye on. Hasn't been much to watch in IN, OH, MI, WV etc lol

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At this point I wasn't too nit picky about the details, just glad there is something to finally keep an eye on. Hasn't been much to watch in IN, OH, MI, WV etc lol

Well, some of us have been in thread the needle country but agree it's been pretty bad overall.

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Well, some of us have been in thread the needle country but agree it's been pretty bad overall.

Certainly have. I think I joined eastern in 06 or 07 and this is the worst start to winter I can remember since joining. Half the threads are about past storms and years. Idk. Good luck with this one.

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Well the gfs has finally come around the idea of a storm in the texas panhandle going into the apps. Since January 10th is ny b-day and no one else has had luck, I figured I would try my hand at starting a thred. Discuss.

My birthday's the 11th, we've had some good storms the last couple years on our birthdays.

Unless we get a decent storm from a cutoff here, I'm going to get sick the next time I see a cutoff next winter. We've had way too many this season

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IWX

12Z ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WWD TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...INCREASING CHANCES FOR DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION AND A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE PHASING WITH A FOUR CORNERS/SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT MID LAT CYCLONE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...COLDER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD (DAYS 8/9)...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LAKE EFFECT EVENT BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
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The players are all there for this to be a big system, whether or not it phases however will be the main issue at hand. It is however nice to see some West Coast ridging finally.

Looks like the first real large scale winter storm threat to the general region, obviously far out but has much more potential than the hyper local crap we've seen lately.

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Very prelim thinking: this is going to be warm for a lot us, especially south and east per usual. BUT...it could be the storm that ushers in the SSW induced neutral AO/-EPO regime. If it does that, then it'll be a success in my book.

So, do you think it will be a Lakes cutter into Michigan or even, dare I say, Wisconsin?

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Its actually snowed OK south and east all things considered compared to the as usual rain or nothing to the west.. Gotta like a storm chance somewhere before a potential pattern change up. I'm hoping it either nails up north or LAF and YZZ.. they're def due for some real fun.

Really want to win that bet, eh?

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So, do you think it will be a Lakes cutter into Michigan or even, dare I say, Wisconsin?

If this thing phases, I think you, Bowme, and Alek (whether he wants to admit it or not) are looking good. The other possibility is that this storm follows the seasonal trend and stays disjointed, with the southern wave moving off the EC with a lot of juice but little snow while the northern stream wave stays up near Lk Superior. That would suck doubly because it would likely delay the pattern change as well.

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