dilly84 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well the gfs has finally come around the idea of a storm in the texas panhandle going into the apps. Since January 10th is ny b-day and no one else has had luck, I figured I would try my hand at starting a thred. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well, it wouldn't be the first time a storm tracked up/near the apps this year. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well, it wouldn't be the first time a storm tracked up/near the apps this year. Something to watch at least. for many, it's the first thing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z Euro took the low into Michigan. 12z not out far enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z Euro took the low into Michigan. 12z not out far enough yet. The GFS OP runs are on their own compared to most of the ensembles the last couple runs. Of course, the only real important thing a week out is they are showing a storm through the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z Euro looks stronger with the low ejecting out by 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Wave interaction isn't as favorable on the 12z Euro. Looks like maybe rain ending as snow but not much to write home about. Edit: Maybe a little better out toward W PA/W NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Wave interaction isn't as favorable on the 12z Euro. Looks like maybe rain ending as snow but not much to write home about. Edit: Maybe a little better out toward W PA/W NY? At this point I wasn't too nit picky about the details, just glad there is something to finally keep an eye on. Hasn't been much to watch in IN, OH, MI, WV etc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 At this point I wasn't too nit picky about the details, just glad there is something to finally keep an eye on. Hasn't been much to watch in IN, OH, MI, WV etc lol Well, some of us have been in thread the needle country but agree it's been pretty bad overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well, some of us have been in thread the needle country but agree it's been pretty bad overall. Certainly have. I think I joined eastern in 06 or 07 and this is the worst start to winter I can remember since joining. Half the threads are about past storms and years. Idk. Good luck with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well the gfs has finally come around the idea of a storm in the texas panhandle going into the apps. Since January 10th is ny b-day and no one else has had luck, I figured I would try my hand at starting a thred. Discuss. My birthday's the 11th, we've had some good storms the last couple years on our birthdays. Unless we get a decent storm from a cutoff here, I'm going to get sick the next time I see a cutoff next winter. We've had way too many this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 No shocker on who started this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 No shocker on who started this thread. Actually nice to see a storm thread even if it doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I definitely think there is enough there to start a storm thread, chances for something to be affecting the region look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z GFS ensembles at 180hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Actually nice to see a storm thread even if it doesn't pan out. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Some of those Ensambles look beastly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 IWX 12Z ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WWD TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...INCREASING CHANCES FOR DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION AND A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE PHASING WITH A FOUR CORNERS/SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT MID LAT CYCLONE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...COLDER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD (DAYS 8/9)...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LAKE EFFECT EVENT BY LATE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The players are all there for this to be a big system, whether or not it phases however will be the main issue at hand. It is however nice to see some West Coast ridging finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 LAF is due for a feb 2007 - and YYZ is definetly due for a 12"+ storm.... Go team me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The players are all there for this to be a big system, whether or not it phases however will be the main issue at hand. It is however nice to see some West Coast ridging finally. Looks like the first real large scale winter storm threat to the general region, obviously far out but has much more potential than the hyper local crap we've seen lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 LAF is due for a feb 2007 - and YYZ is definetly due for a 12"+ storm.... Go team me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Very prelim thinking: this is going to be warm for a lot us, especially south and east per usual. BUT...it could be the storm that ushers in the SSW induced neutral AO/-EPO regime. If it does that, then it'll be a success in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Very prelim thinking: this is going to be warm for a lot us, especially south and east per usual. BUT...it could be the storm that ushers in the SSW induced neutral AO/-EPO regime. If it does that, then it'll be a success in my book. So, do you think it will be a Lakes cutter into Michigan or even, dare I say, Wisconsin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Very prelim thinking: this is going to be warm for a lot us, especially south and east per usual. BUT...it could be the storm that ushers in the SSW induced neutral AO/-EPO regime. If it does that, then it'll be a success in my book. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Its actually snowed OK south and east all things considered compared to the as usual rain or nothing to the west.. Gotta like a storm chance somewhere before a potential pattern change up. I'm hoping it either nails up north or LAF and YZZ.. they're def due for some real fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Its actually snowed OK south and east all things considered compared to the as usual rain or nothing to the west.. Gotta like a storm chance somewhere before a potential pattern change up. I'm hoping it either nails up north or LAF and YZZ.. they're def due for some real fun. Really want to win that bet, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Love it I just found my snow magnet from last year and dusted it off, and ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 So, do you think it will be a Lakes cutter into Michigan or even, dare I say, Wisconsin? If this thing phases, I think you, Bowme, and Alek (whether he wants to admit it or not) are looking good. The other possibility is that this storm follows the seasonal trend and stays disjointed, with the southern wave moving off the EC with a lot of juice but little snow while the northern stream wave stays up near Lk Superior. That would suck doubly because it would likely delay the pattern change as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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