CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 We're weenies. If it shows a 384 hour coastal with 2 inches QPF and -6 H85s we take it to the bank. When the H85 0 line bisects the cp as the op shows now at 384, we discard it and wait for the ensembles. Don't you know the rules? No no..lol I don't mean that. What I meant, was that verbatim it was meager with QPF after day 10, but with the truncation..I wouldn't expect it to show what really would fall. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wow, Stowe FTW??? oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 oh? Best snow in all of NE is at Stowe right now. Next weeks potential cutter really sucks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LOL @ the 12z GGEM. By 168h, it has about 90% of the CONUS below 0c at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Best snow in all of NE is at Stowe right now. Next weeks potential cutter really sucks though. I know a guy who has 1/12-13 discounted tickets that he's trading up for a few weeks later most likely. Conditions still stink there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LOL @ the 12z GGEM. By 168h, it has about 90% of the CONUS below 0c at 850mb. What a monster system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I know a guy who has 1/12-13 discounted tickets that he's trading up for a few weeks later most likely. Conditions still stink there No they do not, although 60% open, conditions today are awesome, packed powder with 2-4 new freshies, far from stink stank stunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 What a monster system. That's huge. Look at the TROWAL wrapping around that thing. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It's 6+ on an op run. I'd wait for now. LOL, next week's cutter? We are done with snow for another 10+ days. Thanks to everyone who laughed at my post this morning about watching this system for wintry precipitation.. the gfs is exactly what I was talking about. Get this low a little east under NE, let the Arctic high push this east and were in business. Lets see what the "jester" has to say at 1:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Thanks to everyone who laughed at my post this morning about watching this system for wintry precipitation.. the gfs is exactly what I was talking about. Get this low a little east under NE, let the Arctic high push this east and were in business. Lets see what the "jester" has to say at 1:00 Judging by how strong of a system this appears to be I would not be surprised to be a massive dry slot with this system...could set up right around MHT too given these low tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's huge. Look at the TROWAL wrapping around that thing. Wow 168-240 hr maps: the things that weenie dreams are made of. 29.5/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Even in the cartoons.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 06z DGEX ... one heck of a nor'easter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 All I'm saying is that even after a rainstorm our pattern change doesn't necessarily mean good things here in terms of snow. It looks colder for sure but I'm not sure it's particularly favorable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would feel much more comfortable if someone is able to squeeze out a snowstorm next week before a rather tenuous pattern. If you look at the GEFS height anomalies the SE ridge is demolished for the day 11-15 period and likely beyond. Seems like a good thing at first, right? I think that argues for suppression and major fail on this pattern. If we can develop a solid gradient looking pattern then I think we could luck out but I don't think it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 wow, impressive looking storm but the track is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would feel much more comfortable if someone is able to squeeze out a snowstorm next week before a rather tenuous pattern. If you look at the GEFS height anomalies the SE ridge is demolished for the day 11-15 period and likely beyond. Seems like a good thing at first, right? I think that argues for suppression and major fail on this pattern. If we can develop a solid gradient looking pattern then I think we could luck out but I don't think it's a lock. Yeah, that's the thing... the SE Ridge - to an extent - helps keep the GOM open for business... I'm much happier with snow before a cold pattern anyway because it makes the cold weather more fun/worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro bias with SW cutoff being held back by d4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Is this storm the pattern changer we're waiting for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would feel much more comfortable if someone is able to squeeze out a snowstorm next week before a rather tenuous pattern. If you look at the GEFS height anomalies the SE ridge is demolished for the day 11-15 period and likely beyond. Seems like a good thing at first, right? I think that argues for suppression and major fail on this pattern. If we can develop a solid gradient looking pattern then I think we could luck out but I don't think it's a lock. The GEFS has been way too quick all "winter" season to demolish the SE ridge. I think the -EPO/-PNA pattern coupled with La Nina would argue for some type of SE ridge. It might not be there right at day 8-10, but overall I think it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The GEFS has been way too quick all "winter" season to demolish the SE ridge. I think the -EPO/-PNA pattern coupled with La Nina would argue for some type of SE ridge. It might not be there right at day 8-10, but overall I think it would be. Except we haven't seen a La Nina like pattern all year... why now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would feel much more comfortable if someone is able to squeeze out a snowstorm next week before a rather tenuous pattern. If you look at the GEFS height anomalies the SE ridge is demolished for the day 11-15 period and likely beyond. Seems like a good thing at first, right? I think that argues for suppression and major fail on this pattern. If we can develop a solid gradient looking pattern then I think we could luck out but I don't think it's a lock. Wouldn't that be terrible. SE ridge kills us pushing storms north (with the help of no blocking in the NATL), but then gets squashed, but still kills us with suppression city. That would suck. Let's see how this evolves over the next week. Obviously widely differing solutions still in play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Except we haven't seen a La Nina like pattern all year... why now? but the SE ridge has been there, in all it's glory, has it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 D15 of the GEFS mean drops the AO into the tank. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would feel much more comfortable if someone is able to squeeze out a snowstorm next week before a rather tenuous pattern. If you look at the GEFS height anomalies the SE ridge is demolished for the day 11-15 period and likely beyond. Seems like a good thing at first, right? I think that argues for suppression and major fail on this pattern. If we can develop a solid gradient looking pattern then I think we could luck out but I don't think it's a lock. Not so sure you can point a finger at suppression being the limiting factor. Too early to determine that. Subtle changes in the states of the PNA and NAO domains, and the evolution of shortwaves involved, will dictate how any storms play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 D15 of the GEFS mean drops the AO into the tank. Wow YAYYYYYYYY!!!!!! fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Not so sure you can point a finger at suppression being the limiting factor. Too early to determine that. Subtle changes in the states of the PNA and NAO domains, and the evolution of shortwaves involved, will dictate how any storms play out. I'm just saying that once we flip to a colder pattern snow is not a lock. I don't think suppression is the likely outcome in the long run... but at least after the rainstorm I think we are in a relatively quiet pattern. I'd rather run on the line with a strong 93-94-esque gradient pattern. That is not showing up in the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 fixed lol yeah. Definitely encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 HPC must be having a good look at this data cuz their discussion is later than usual. Glad to hear GEFS are tanking the NAO...that is a big step. But we do need some SE Ridge...most years it doesn't completely disappear and an EPO ridge would argue for a SE Ridge no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 HPC must be having a good look at this data cuz their discussion is later than usual. Glad to hear GEFS are tanking the NAO...that is a big step. But we do need some SE Ridge...most years it doesn't completely disappear and an EPO ridge would argue for a SE Ridge no? AO not NAO. Either way it's certainly better than the crap we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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