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Next week's major storm and beyond


OKpowdah

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LOL you guys are too much, its snowing across vt in the berks and has been in the albany area, I never said snow for coastal ct but its great to see the snow piling up to our north.

you said look out the window--90% of the folks posting in this thread live in CT/RI or MA, places where no snow is falling...had you posted this in the NNE thread it would have made alot more sense.

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i don't think there's any real debbie downer posts. actually, there haven't even really been any posts today...LOL.

no specific threats to discuss...just the prospects that the pattern looks more favorable.

I think it's more that the new cold pattern is going to produce threats..not that the models were or weren't showing any threats

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Yeah there really isn't anything new.

Exactly what's really changed? How many of us were expecting a change in mid January...many of us even a month or more ago based on a lot of the stuff Don and others posted. The longest running death AO's would only have made it to the end of the month, so this is no surprise.

That said...as Litch posted we're torching the first part of this month and until we see storminess associated with the change...who cares.

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How exciting... we get a pattern change but get to there by a Lakes Cutter and a soaking rainstorm.

Once we cool down I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern stays relatively cold but also relatively quiet.

7-10 days of cold and dry after a rainstorm? That sounds AWESOME to me!

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How exciting... we get a pattern change but get to there by a Lakes Cutter and a soaking rainstorm.

Once we cool down I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern stays relatively cold but also relatively quiet.

7-10 days of cold and dry after a rainstorm? That sounds AWESOME to me!

Yup.

Kind of a pointless change except to give us "hope" for snow just b/c the pattern flipped colder.

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How exciting... we get a pattern change but get to there by a Lakes Cutter and a soaking rainstorm.

Once we cool down I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern stays relatively cold but also relatively quiet.

7-10 days of cold and dry after a rainstorm? That sounds AWESOME to me!

lol

At least Chris will be able to still make snow in his back yard. We can all go out there and party in the snow for a gtg.

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Winter could not get any worse, it has to get better. Up until recently most ponds were barely/unfrozen, and there is really no snow anywhere. Aside of a comet impact it couldn't technically get worse.

So the 10+ day models show a more favorable pattern. This has happened before. There were still hints that towards the end of the month things may not "lock" but ease again. The "changed pattern" itself is still oscillating on the models so we don't know yet what is coming after about 1/14. I'm optimisitc but beyond the beginning of an actual cold pattern that isn't dominated by warmth starting a few days ago, it looks pretty boring for the next week. Let's hope the oscillations we saw last night are just that.

I figured 1/15, thinking by 1/22 we're all much happier. But still reservations. I think a lot of the signals people have been touting since November have failed which only goes to show the persistence of the suc*. Time will tell.

Thanks

Agree

[quote name=CT

Blizz' timestamp='1325773054' post='1247670]

Just once..I wish folks would show some optimism instead of the same old stuff.

Yea, like a snowless winter thread.

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Thus far, there is nothing wintry to get excited about. Sure the pattern looks to be flipping, but what will it bring? Will it stay? Who the hell knows. Call it pessimism, call it what you want. I'm not going to live by what the day 10+ progs show.

It's pretty clear the pattern is flipping. After 45 days of pretty much identical looking hideous maps things look better. But unfortunately snow isn't guaranteed. I would feel much better if the storm next week was able to give us some snow chances before the cold settles in but it seems like that won't happen.

My concern is a sustained below normal stretch for 10-14 days with very little to show for it in the snow department.

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It's pretty clear the pattern is flipping. After 45 days of pretty much identical looking hideous maps things look better. But unfortunately snow isn't guaranteed. I would feel much better if the storm next week was able to give us some snow chances before the cold settles in but it seems like that won't happen.

My concern is a sustained below normal stretch for 10-14 days with very little to show for it in the snow department.

See I think my concern is more for messy crappy storms, but I suppose we can't rule out cold and dry. I just feel a gradient pattern coming on and I don't know where we'll be. I'm actually not concerned about dryness, but I could be wrong. Of course I'm talking 11-15 day and beyond.

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The danger is that a cold, dry pattern, while displaying more POTENTIAL.......is worse for many because it's uncomfortable and you can't shovel potential.

Looks like we are guaranteed of at least one week of that.

Exactly. Does the warm pattern reload after a week or two? I don't know.

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See I think my concern is more for messy crappy storms, but I suppose we can't rule out cold and dry. I just feel a gradient pattern coming on and I don't know where we'll be. I'm actually not concerned about dryness, but I could be wrong. Of course I'm talking 11-15 day and beyond.

The pattern has been so quiet nationwide. No ski areas in the country have any snow pretty much lol.

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The pattern has been so quiet nationwide. No ski areas in the country have any snow pretty much lol.

I think we may be thinking in a similar way too, as far as pattern lasting. The pattern is changing, but until it's firmly in the 6-10 day period and we can get an idea of where we may be headed...I'm just not getting excited yet.

The country as a whole is hurting as far as snow goes.

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It's pretty clear the pattern is flipping. After 45 days of pretty much identical looking hideous maps things look better. But unfortunately snow isn't guaranteed. I would feel much better if the storm next week was able to give us some snow chances before the cold settles in but it seems like that won't happen.

My concern is a sustained below normal stretch for 10-14 days with very little to show for it in the snow department.

Is it not this upcoming storm, that ultimately "breaks" the pattern though? Without it, I'd think we still be mired in +AO hell.

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If nothing else, we are no getting into sacred territory regarding how badly this winter has sucked....I find that in and of itself, perversely fascinating.

It is. Sorry for those who think every winter is a vicious winter, but it is what it is. Hopefully we can change it around in a couple of weeks, but I just can't get worked up yet.

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