Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 what a snoozefest for the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Even with the pattern change being shown on the models...through probably at least the 20th of the month there is nothing in the pattern that really looks favorable for any big type of storm. I guess getting into a colder regime is good but it's a pretty boring looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Even with the pattern change being shown on the models...through probably at least the 20th of the month there is nothing in the pattern that really looks favorable for any big type of storm. I guess getting into a colder regime is good but it's a pretty boring looking pattern. It would be a SWFE or Miller B type pattern. That's fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Even with the pattern change being shown on the models...through probably at least the 20th of the month there is nothing in the pattern that really looks favorable for any big type of storm. I guess getting into a colder regime is good but it's a pretty boring looking pattern. Nothing can be worse than it is now.. I'll take my chances.. The 00z last night was really impressive with that storm last week.. with the models struggling, I think it's important that we still watch that one. It seems as if t hat storm is its own little vortmax that does not want to phase with the northern stream. The northern stream almost pushes this thing to the coast until it finally phases over CNE.. Since were essentially watching paint dry right now, I'm keeping this system on the table still. Were now in January, and ill take my chances with a coastal low(whether it be a hugger or a BM low) climo says it's supposed to snow Edit: sboswx suicide warning? Winter begins when he leaves lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nothing can be worse than it is now.. I'll take my chances.. The 00z last night was really impressive with that storm last week.. with the models struggling, I think it's important that we still watch that one. It seems as if t hat storm is its own little vortmax that does not want to phase with the northern stream. The northern stream almost pushes this thing to the coast until it finally phases over CNE.. Since were essentially watching paint dry right now, I'm keeping this system on the table still. Were now in January, and ill take my chances with a coastal low(whether it be a hugger or a BM low) climo says it's supposed to snow LOL, next week's cutter? We are done with snow for another 10+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It would be a SWFE or Miller B type pattern. That's fine by me. Initially it would be. But if the -NAO evolves, which it might...you could even say it likely will given it's absence for so long...then we could have coastals in February. But damn this is a boring week ahead! Especially after the recent Euro Sunday tease that evaporated into a high pressure system and cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It would be a SWFE or Miller B type pattern. That's fine by me. Kind of looks like it could be more of a SWFE type pattern than Miller B, no? Taking the 0z GFS FWIW the most favorable location for any low pressure strengthening seems to be right around the upper mid-west where the best upper-level divergence is located and upper air conditions over this region seem much more conducive for low strengthening than they do off the east coast. SWFE would probably be fine for most and sure I would take my chances with that...at least there is a chance to get some front load snow but then you have to worry about sleet and strong WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nothing can be worse than it is now.. I'll take my chances.. The 00z last night was really impressive with that storm last week.. with the models struggling, I think it's important that we still watch that one. It seems as if t hat storm is its own little vortmax that does not want to phase with the northern stream. The northern stream almost pushes this thing to the coast until it finally phases over CNE.. Since were essentially watching paint dry right now, I'm keeping this system on the table still. Were now in January, and ill take my chances with a coastal low(whether it be a hugger or a BM low) climo says it's supposed to snow The system around the 12th has almost a 0% chance of being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Initially it would be. But if the -NAO evolves, which it might...you could even say it likely will given it's absence for so long...then we could have coastals in February. But damn this is a boring week ahead! Especially after the recent Euro Sunday tease that evaporated into a high pressure system and cold front. Hopefully if a -NAO develops the signal is somewhat on the strong side b/c with what looks to be a massive -PNA setting up that's really going to want to pump up the SE ridge...luckily though the -EPO/-AO should help suppress it a bit and keep the gradient a bit further south...the stronger the -NAO the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Kind of looks like it could be more of a SWFE type pattern than Miller B, no? Taking the 0z GFS FWIW the most favorable location for any low pressure strengthening seems to be right around the upper mid-west where the best upper-level divergence is located and upper air conditions over this region seem much more conducive for low strengthening than they do off the east coast. SWFE would probably be fine for most and sure I would take my chances with that...at least there is a chance to get some front load snow but then you have to worry about sleet and strong WAA. Yeah probably, but you could see on the GFS op runs, how it could be a Miller B or NJ type system going under Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hopefully if a -NAO develops the signal is somewhat on the strong side b/c with what looks to be a massive -PNA setting up that's really going to want to pump up the SE ridge...luckily though the -EPO/-AO should help suppress it a bit and keep the gradient a bit further south...the stronger the -NAO the better. The NAO probably will spend all month in the + zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah probably, but you could see on the GFS op runs, how it could be a Miller B or NJ type system going under Long Island. Certainly a possibility...that's a case where hopefully the PNA isn't too negative (or we at least have a solid enough -AO/-NAO in place) so the heights off the SE aren't built up too high which could allow a better chance for something could slide south of us, especially with a -EPO in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The NAO probably will spend all month in the + zone. Yeah I agree, although it does look like there will be periods will it will try to dip negative but it may not last very long...this is when you hope you get some sort of system nearby. Even if the NAO is positive I'll take my chances with a system approaching just as the NAO is either heading neutral or slightly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 what a snoozefest for the next week or so. Big rain and windstorm for you next Wed..and then probably a Strong NW wind event with CAA as the arctic front heralds in the change next Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Winter could not get any worse, it has to get better. Up until recently most ponds were barely/unfrozen, and there is really no snow anywhere. Aside of a comet impact it couldn't technically get worse. So the 10+ day models show a more favorable pattern. This has happened before. There were still hints that towards the end of the month things may not "lock" but ease again. The "changed pattern" itself is still oscillating on the models so we don't know yet what is coming after about 1/14. I'm optimisitc but beyond the beginning of an actual cold pattern that isn't dominated by warmth starting a few days ago, it looks pretty boring for the next week. Let's hope the oscillations we saw last night are just that. I figured 1/15, thinking by 1/22 we're all much happier. But still reservations. I think a lot of the signals people have been touting since November have failed which only goes to show the persistence of the suc*. Time will tell. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Big rain and windstorm for you next Wed..and then probably a Strong NW wind event with CAA as the arctic front heralds in the change next Thursday blah. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Just once..I wish folks would show some optimism instead of the same old stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Just once..I wish folks would show some optimism instead of the same old stuff. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 WHy is nobody talking about the surpise mini snow event today???????????? Everyone is so wrapped up in the supposed pattern change that they have forgotten to look at radar or out the window........... enjoy the snow today folks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 WHy is nobody talking about the surpise mini snow event today???????????? Everyone is so wrapped up in the supposed pattern change that they have forgotten to look at radar or out the window........... enjoy the snow today folks!! A few flakes flying around here in Springfield... and I'm not talking about the people of this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 ? I don't know man., We're in the midst of a major overhaul and change in the pattern and yet there are still many debbie downer type posts, acting like no change is coming etc etc. I know people are down on the winter so far and rightfully so, but when things look as good and promising as they do,, I just thought there would be some optimism and at least a little excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Just once..I wish folks would show some optimism instead of the same old stuff. Blind optimism is for idiots. It's failed for 2 months. I'm optimistic but with as much caution as Scott. The 6z GFS goes 15 days without really any bigger snow events. When the fantasy world of the GFS cannot produce much I think cautioun is still warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't know man., We're in the midst of a major overhaul and change in the pattern and yet there are still many debbie downer type posts, acting like no change is coming etc etc. I know people are down on the winter so far and rightfully so, but when things look as good and promising as they do,, I just thought there would be some optimism and at least a little excitement let's hope it's a decent change and not just 2 or 3 weeks---some of the mets on the NYC board fear that it could be a transient change and we're right back to torch after a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 epic fail forecast Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. West wind between 7 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Blind optimism is for idiots. It's failed for 2 months. I'm optimistic but with as much caution as Scott. The 6z GFS goes 15 days without really any bigger snow events. When the fantasy world of the GFS cannot produce much I think cautioun is still warranted. Well there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 WHy is nobody talking about the surpise mini snow event today???????????? Everyone is so wrapped up in the supposed pattern change that they have forgotten to look at radar or out the window........... enjoy the snow today folks!! Hitting the bottle kind of early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 WHy is nobody talking about the surpise mini snow event today???????????? Everyone is so wrapped up in the supposed pattern change that they have forgotten to look at radar or out the window........... enjoy the snow today folks!! I've been up since 7am here and havent seen anything unless you are counting clouds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't know man., We're in the midst of a major overhaul and change in the pattern and yet there are still many debbie downer type posts, acting like no change is coming etc etc. I know people are down on the winter so far and rightfully so, but when things look as good and promising as they do,, I just thought there would be some optimism and at least a little excitement i don't think there's any real debbie downer posts. actually, there haven't even really been any posts today...LOL. no specific threats to discuss...just the prospects that the pattern looks more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 i don't think there's any real debbie downer posts. actually, there haven't even really been any posts today...LOL. no specific threats to discuss...just the prospects that the pattern looks more favorable. Yeah there really isn't anything new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I've been up since 7am here and havent seen anything unless you are counting clouds... nothing here either at exit 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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