TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 it's the GFS, I'm pretty sure it randomly rolls some dice and that's how it decides what to show. It was first on board with the ridge into AK several days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It was first on board with the ridge into AK several days ago... I was mainly saying that 4 different runs yield 4 different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I was mainly saying that 4 different runs yield 4 different solutions. I see I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I see I see It wasn't the first on board. Ensembles didn't buy in until maybe 2-3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 it's the GFS, I'm pretty sure it randomly rolls some dice and that's how it decides what to show. Yes. And looking at the anomalies, the pv is surrounded by yellow so it may be random. Finally, ensembles are still decent looking. Looking at the anomaly chart it continues to be a huge pattern change particularly comparing days 5, 10, and 15. Full speed ahead. Does not suck....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It wasn't the first on board. Ensembles didn't buy in until maybe 2-3 days ago. I was talking about the OP though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yes. And looking at the anomalies, the pv is surrounded by yellow so it may be random. Finally, ensembles are still decent looking. Looking at the anomaly chart it continues to be a huge pattern change particularly comparing days 5, 10, and 15. Full speed ahead. Does not suck....lol... Pattern change begins 1/10 complete 1/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Anyone having anything good on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Where in fookin christ is the your-a-peein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro liking the GOA low a little more this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro liking the GOA low a little more this run... Not necessarily a terrible thing because it coincides with the pattern change and would probably slide east as ridging builds across the Aleutians to the NP. In the end, it could actually keep heights lower further south, and allows a faster ridge bridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nice rain to a heavy wet snow here on the GFS....fantasy of course. That run is emblematic of this winter. Take a 984 low up the coast and almost snow with it until it gets well into Upstate NY and nw NE.... Probably have the low over Buffalo in a couple days. I was talking about the OP though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nice rain to a heavy wet snow here on the GFS....fantasy of course. That run is emblematic of this winter. Take a 984 low up the coast and almost snow with it until it gets well into Upstate NY and nw NE.... Probably have the low over Buffalo in a couple days. No one should look for snow with that low...it's the stuff that happens after that goes through that could be interesting. That low is a warm southern stream system with little to no cold air to work with until it merges with the PV. The last two op ECMWF runs do have a weak -NAO at day 9 and 10 but we'll see how that progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would take the ec run in a hard beat...big lake-effect at day 8 and 9 and a developing synoptic snowstorm at day 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro Ensembles now knocking the AK vortex around starting d6 now and d 7-10 get better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 One more mild rainstorm next week for all of New ENgland.even Powederfreakland...and then finally, finally winter locks and loads. We are almost to the promised land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 We'll certainly take our chances with this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Thankfully it looks like Toronto Blizzard will get his wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yes. And looking at the anomalies, the pv is surrounded by yellow so it may be random. Finally, ensembles are still decent looking. Looking at the anomaly chart it continues to be a huge pattern change particularly comparing days 5, 10, and 15. Full speed ahead. Does not suck....lol... I like the looks of that mean especially if the NA ridging bridges back to the ridging at the pole. I love a Hudson Bay vortex and that looks pretty close. Here's a question....we always look north to Greenland and the Pole and west to the Pacific. But what about the stuff happening over the east Atlantic, North African and the Continent. Are there changes there that are encouraging? For example that lwo aff the NW coast of Africa...if that strengthens does it not help pump up ridging to its N and E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 would be curious to see the day 10-15 stuff on the ec ens...feel like the end of the 00z run doesn't look quite as nice as the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 next weeks event either collapses south in an accelerating pattern change in mid winter (which I think is a possibility) or it is the phased cutter we've been hoping would tip the balance in the pattern and support a developing -NAO. Looks like a win either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 would be curious to see the day 10-15 stuff on the ec ens...feel like the end of the 00z run doesn't look quite as nice as the 12z. 12z was pretty amazing but this one is fine to me and hopefully like the GEFS it gets better beyond d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 would be curious to see the day 10-15 stuff on the ec ens...feel like the end of the 00z run doesn't look quite as nice as the 12z. They lowered heights up into the GOA on this run. More of a gradient pattern. Tough to tell if that's the ebb and flow of models, because 12z was pretty darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 They lowered heights up into the GOA on this run. More of a gradient pattern. Tough to tell if that's the ebb and flow of models, because 12z was pretty darn cold. Higher heights north of there to the pole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Higher heights north of there to the pole? Yeah there is weak ridging, but they lowered a little too. It looks like the ridge tries to come back again on the last panel. Patterns do that, they build/relax/build....etc. There are still questions to be answered and I really want to see how this looks next week, but for now...I'll take my chances. I'm just not getting my hopes up too much for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah there is weak ridging, but they lowered a little too. It looks like the ridge tries to come back again on the last panel. Patterns do that, they build/relax/build....etc. There are still questions to be answered and I really want to see how this looks next week, but for now...I'll take my chances. I'm just not getting my hopes up too much for now. Thanks Scott. A nice overall look. Certainly better than the period from 11/1-now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Thanks Scott. A nice overall look. Certainly better than the period from 11/1-now. Well there is no question...lol. I have my fingers crossed, but I'm not getting too excited until we can smell this at our door step. It is a change no doubt, and I love seeing that high ridging in from central Canada, but the gradient track is still up in the air I think. Certainly verbatim, the 11-15 day looks great, but lets get that into 6-10 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well there is no question...lol. I have my fingers crossed, but I'm not getting too excited until we can smell this at our door step. It is a change no doubt, and I love seeing that high ridging in from central Canada, but the gradient track is still up in the air I think. Certainly verbatim, the 11-15 day looks great, but lets get that into 6-10 day. I've always loved gradient patterns. Because even when the gradient is unfavorable, the oscillations mean you are in the game for events and while some may be too far north, you'll likely get your share of money. Of course if I lived 50 miles further south I might feel differently...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I've always. Loved gradient patterns. Because even w hen the gradient is unfavorable, the oscillations mean you are in the game for events and while some may be too far north, you'll likely get your share of money. Of course if I lived 50 miles further south I might feel differently...lol Yeah it could be amazing..who knows. I just still see some questions and with the way the winter has gone and the pesky tendency of the vortex...I'm holding back some excitement for now as not everything is lined up perfectly, but it does look good. When I see a high progged like the way the EC ensembles have...it does get my attention. That's one thing I like to see, because it means we'll have a good high for any event. Hopefully the PNA isn't crazy negative because that will offset it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 They lowered heights up into the GOA on this run. More of a gradient pattern. Tough to tell if that's the ebb and flow of models, because 12z was pretty darn cold. yeah that was my assumption just based on the last panel - but it's always hard to make too much of guess without having seen the previous day's extended period and then the current runs extended period. hopefully it's not the start of backing away and it's just sort of the pulsing we see as patterns evolve. i felt like you could see that same look in some of the op runs overnight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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