dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 what do the colors on those maps mean PF? Precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 what do the colors on those maps mean PF? Looks like snowfall amount 0.1 to 5. Not sure if they are 3, 6, 12 hour totals or what though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I just looped the weenie Euro snow graphics on wunderground and if that comes anywhere close to correct it will be a very snowy 7 days coming up. Pure weenie speculation though... all of CNE and NNE gets in on some EURO fun Thurs/Friday Forecast is for 1-3" tonight and tomorrow morning, 1-2" Tuesday, then this shows up on Thursday... Then it lights up again on Friday afternoon... Gradient pattern type stuff maybe? NNE and CNE first, then SNE in another week? Looks good for at least some winter storms to track which is a nice change of pace. Maybe we can start gaining ground again on climo. When I was at the NWS today all those guys were talking about how SNE picked up more snow in October than BTV has all season long, lol. Yeah PF, Looks gradient to start and more favorable for winter type precip in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm still not sold on significant snows south and west of N ME for d5. The EC ens were warmer than the op and even the op was probably a messy mix for many that had < 0C 850s. The sfc ridging was a lot stronger on this op run compared to 00z though. We had a piece of the extension from the Hudson Bay sfc ridge nose in with ore staying ground. For those of us in S ME/NH/VT looking for white we're going to need to see that confluence stay strong north of ME to let the sfc ridge have some fighting power. If we could get the secondary cranking quicker and stronger we could probably get a decent northerly isallobaric component going and threaten the elevated interior of NNE with ZR/IP. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro ensembles are warmer than the op run on the Thursday pipe dream event. I doubt anyone sees any meaningful snow out of it except maybe powderfreak land where some front end slop could happen. The wave behind it though has some intrigue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro ensembles are warmer than the op run on the Thursday pipe dream event. I doubt anyone sees any meaningful snow out of it except maybe powderfreak land where some front end slop could happen. The wave behind it though has some intrigue. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I like it when Albany says things like this.... A SECOND...CLIPPER-TYPE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND JOIN FORCES WITH THE THE SOUTHERN LOW... ALL OF WHICH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. QPF COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF THE MERGING SYSTEMS. COULD ALSO BE LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET... FREEZING AND RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. Still a gross 43.4/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 long range 18z GFS is less than appealing. SE ridge in full force behind the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Perhaps a sneaky minor snowfall for sne late Monday night into early Tuesday, not giving up on that yet. Following s/w behind the rainer has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 long range 18z GFS is less than appealing. SE ridge in full force behind the trough -NAO by 384 hours though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 long range 18z GFS is less than appealing. SE ridge in full force behind the trough We'll play with it from time to time but we'll need it for moisture too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 -NAO by 384 hours though lol. It does manage a number of opportunities for snow at least. Which I suppose that is a positive sign... at least just to look for an stormy pattern through the Northeast U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 We'll play with it from time to time but we'll need it for moisture too. Definitely true. That's where I was going with my last post ...at least looking stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 lol. It does manage a number of opportunities for snow at least. Which I suppose that is a positive sign... at least just to look for an stormy pattern through the Northeast U.S. Yeah really active northern stream. It does have the Aleutian/Bering ridge retrograding into Kamchatka which brings the +EPO back. I fear that our pattern change will dislodge the PV from the North Pole but I do think we'll eventually see low heights over AK return and flood CONUS with warmth. I still like our chances for snow with a neutral/more favorable AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Figures ... the entire S/W is now over land and what does the GFS do? weakens the mid level features over the east. Watch, the 168 hour one may become the first important winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The cold behind the storm is pretty pathetic and it looks like another 1-2 day shot before it warms up again. Same pattern, rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro ensembles are warmer than the op run on the Thursday pipe dream event. I doubt anyone sees any meaningful snow out of it except maybe powderfreak land where some front end slop could happen. The wave behind it though has some intrigue. Yeah I was just posting it, but fully expecting and forecasting mainly rain here. Where we decided to set up the snow guns for next week was based on the fact that rain is the most likely outcome of that event... even if its marginal, the seasonal tendency has been to go the warm route over the cold route in any situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 what do the colors on those maps mean PF? it gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 it gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Figures ... the entire S/W is now over land and what does the GFS do? weakens the mid level features over the east. Watch, the 168 hour one may become the first important winter storm. I was painfully obvious that it was rain for sne when the sw was over Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We'll play with it from time to time but we'll need it for moisture too. I'd rather run the risk of 40 and rain, then 0 and dry I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Something somewhat positive from NWS in Upton : IT LOOKS LIKE AO IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AS THE NAO IS NEUTRAL...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS ARE FORESEEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Maybe someone we know can get a dumbfounding sleet event. Who Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah really active northern stream. It does have the Aleutian/Bering ridge retrograding into Kamchatka which brings the +EPO back. I fear that our pattern change will dislodge the PV from the North Pole but I do think we'll eventually see low heights over AK return and flood CONUS with warmth. I still like our chances for snow with a neutral/more favorable AO. This is where the -NAO will kick in and save. I've got it all planned out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It was the overbearing NAO which only left me with a meager 48 or so in 09/10. i will take my chances bro. That is because the NAO had been exceedingly negative for such a long period of time, that our source regions were devoid of arctic air and filled with marine crap. The concern here is more the lack of cryosphere nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We'll play with it from time to time but we'll need it for moisture too. There is so much to be done with this statement...I'm just too busy making dinner. On a more serious note, I like the trend colder on the midweek storm. That has made sense to me for a couple of days, firsty cuz we are due for a break and 2ndly because we are in a pattern change and the models will miss some things. This is happening fast at least for CNE and NNE and by Sunday next week we just might have had a snow on snow event and be quickly building our snowpack, cross polar flow radiating on a fresh snowpack, tickling 15 below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Figures ... the entire S/W is now over land and what does the GFS do? weakens the mid level features over the east. Watch, the 168 hour one may become the first important winter storm. Agreed. This is has been and continues to be a threat period. While the actual 18z GFS may seem suppressed, it is actually signaling a major snowstorm for the East Coast. ECMWF leaves behind the STJ low. Looks like the ensembles are split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 That is because the NAO had been exceedingly negative for such a long period of time, that our source regions were devoid of arctic air and filled with marine crap. The concern here is more the lack of cryosphere nearby. Neither an overbearing nor the cryosphere is of any concern. There's snow cover to our north. That's all we need. It will not make the difference between a 20" blizzard and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 it gon snow Lol....I mean what does .1 .2 etc mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Neither an overbearing nor the cryosphere is of any concern. There's snow cover to our north. That's all we need. It will not make the difference between a 20" blizzard and rain. I know that, but it may have some trivial impact with regard to the modification rate of incoming arctic airmasses. Neither are a huge deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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