CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yeah that was my hope. Get that PNA in a position to send storms our way, but we have to be careful not to be too greedy because it will send storms..just not that type we want..lol. Yeah and that's going to depend on the exact placement of the PV and where the boundary sets up. Unfortunately things could turn ugly in this pattern quickly... but it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yeah as long as that vortex is dropping into the davis straight....that is essentially the opposite of good with respect to the NAO...I think we are going to have to forget about prolonged NAO cooperation for the time being, imo. Could be a case again where the index tickles neutral or whatnot but that would probably be owed entirely to some transient ridging in the far north central atlantic reaching up to the area east of greenland. But it would be offset anyway by those strong negative anomalies over western greenland and davis region. We might see the charts say "negative" but it wouldnt , imo, be very productive for us Yep, totally agree. That's what I want to see, I was just commenting on the NAO not shown as going negative right now. Having the PV where it is, would be good for us...both temps and moisture, if it works out as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GEFS or Euro? Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yep, totally agree. That's what I want to see, I was just commenting on the NAO not shown as going negative right now. Having the PV where it is, would be good for us...both temps and moisture, if it works out as shown. It's also why I said forget about it for now. The ridge/trough placement to our nw is what is more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I hope Sam can wave is magic stratospheric wand from PSU. +22C showing up over the North Pole at 50mb. I hope that can downwell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Following on my phone...sorry to reiterate what was obviously already being spelled out by others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yes this the day that makes me ill in winter. I took the kids out to lunch and literally there are Harleys out all over the place....I would say more than half the cars driving around had their windows down,,fat flabby arms were hangng out of some of them,,and the worst was when Gibbs sent me a picture of his feet wearing shorts and flip flops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Following on my phone...sorry to reiterate what was obviously already being spelled out by others. LOL, your comment was situated just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I hope Sam can wave is magic stratospheric wand from PSU. +22C showing up over the North Pole at 50mb. I hope that can downwell. lol that tells me that the AO isn't soaring back positive anytime soon. Even when the +EPO comes back the pattern won't be as painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Good looking ridging out west on the Euro, and you can see the difference it makes between the Euro and the GFS. Otherwise great agreement on the beautiful ridge over the Aleutians and western Alaska with a weak draw bridge over towards Europe, nearing an east based -NAO, certainly on the GFS wow its great to see that inside day 10 now....its getting closer also interesting that the euro has trended towards that thursday low now passing off the coast and colder similar to what the gfs showed a couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 wow its great to see that inside day 10 now....its getting closer also interesting that the euro has trended towards that thursday low now passing off the coast and colder similar to what the gfs showed a couple days ago Yeah, I really like the fact that thurs storm has trended more SE and colder as well as it slides out SE of SNE, Things are starting to fall into place for a more winter type regime hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I hope Sam can wave is magic stratospheric wand from PSU. +22C showing up over the North Pole at 50mb. I hope that can downwell. Value or anomaly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It amazes me that we have a 996 lp over the benchmark in the dead of winter on the gfs and its that warm, perfect track. lol wake me up next friday:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 lol that tells me that the AO isn't soaring back positive anytime soon. Even when the +EPO comes back the pattern won't be as painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Value or anomaly? Anomaly. But we need it to downwell, otherwise it looks pretty and not much more. I would think it's enough to disrupt a little regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 FB fails with NWS in OKX and Ryans station asking, so how did you like the warmth today? Can not wait until next week when they post, so did the cold hurt today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 NNE is going to be white next week.Hard to believe that track and climo they'd end up with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 I hope Sam can wave is magic stratospheric wand from PSU. +22C showing up over the North Pole at 50mb. I hope that can downwell. I'll try to get it done for you. The 10mb temp spike off the chart was a nice sight this morning. Hopefully the Euro maintains it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Re: the d5 low ... Benchmark track != snow What we need is lower heights to our northeast associated with a coherent trough, and a s/w ridge over southern Ontario and Quebec that is "uncontaminated" by s/w energy, such that we have stronger upper level confluence to our north = higher surface pressures. That's part one. Part two is, REGARDLESS of track (I mean, yes, preferably the low tracks between the Cape and benchmark), but I'd rather see the low trend stronger and toward faster deepening as it approaches New England. These two parts together equals stronger northerly ageostrophic flow. Anyway, outside of an hour or two of bookend light snow, it's a long shot. But we might as well be looking for the right stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS trending towards some fun for the Mid Atlantic next weekend? Get that northern s/w to phase with the cutoff, and could be some fun for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Re: the d5 low ... Benchmark track != snow What we need is lower heights to our northeast associated with a coherent trough, and a s/w ridge over southern Ontario and Quebec that is "uncontaminated" by s/w energy, such that we have stronger upper level confluence to our north = higher surface pressures. That's part one. Part two is, REGARDLESS of track (I mean, yes, preferably the low tracks between the Cape and benchmark), but I'd rather see the low trend stronger and toward faster deepening as it approaches New England. These two parts together equals stronger northerly ageostrophic flow. Anyway, outside of an hour or two of bookend light snow, it's a long shot. But we might as well be looking for the right stuff Better then watching it track thru buffalo, I would be happy with ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS trending towards some fun for the Mid Atlantic next weekend? Get that northern s/w to phase with the cutoff, and could be some fun for us Slow the southern wave down or speed up the northern one and it could be real interesting up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GYX musta been peekin at 12Z For CON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SLEET. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO STRONG SRN STREAM S/WV EJECTING OUT OF SW MIDWEEK. THERE ARE STILL MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ATTM...BUT LKLY POP LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A TYPICAL SW FLOW SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF LOW PRES. LLVL SELYS WILL ALSO HELP FORCE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT WED...WITH READINGS HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A SN TO RA TO SN SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST...TO A SN TO POSSIBLE MIX TO SN THE FARTHER INLAND YOU GO. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INDICATED HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING ACROSS QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW...AND THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR COLD AIR HANGING TOUGH FOR THE INTERIOR. CLIMATOLOGICAL LY SPEAKING...TIME OF YEAR ALSO FAVORS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING WOULD ARGUE AGAINST SUSTAINED COLD AIR FOR THE DURATION. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS MOSTLY RA AT THE COAST...WITH CHC IP FOR THE ADJACENT INTERIOR...WITH ALL SN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST PCPN TOTALS SHOULD BE ALONG FAVORED SELY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MTNS. ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A NICE GRADIENT TO ANY POTENTIAL SNFL...WHEREVER THE RA/SN LINE SETS UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Better then watching it track thru buffalo, I would be happy with ice Missing the point. This isn't a one dimension situation tracking a single low in a simple wave pattern. Notice how the Canadian drives the cutoff low through NY state, with the surface low tracking through the Great Lakes ... and we get some front end wintry precip. Why? Because there are RISING 1030mb+ pressures sitting to our northeast from Nova Scotia into southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS trending towards some fun for the Mid Atlantic next weekend? Get that northern s/w to phase with the cutoff, and could be some fun for us Hopefully the ensembles have at least one member that we can drool over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GYX musta been peekin at 12Z For CON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SLEET. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO STRONG SRN STREAM S/WV EJECTING OUT OF SW MIDWEEK. THERE ARE STILL MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ATTM...BUT LKLY POP LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A TYPICAL SW FLOW SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF LOW PRES. LLVL SELYS WILL ALSO HELP FORCE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT WED...WITH READINGS HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A SN TO RA TO SN SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST...TO A SN TO POSSIBLE MIX TO SN THE FARTHER INLAND YOU GO. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INDICATED HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING ACROSS QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW...AND THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR COLD AIR HANGING TOUGH FOR THE INTERIOR. CLIMATOLOGICAL LY SPEAKING...TIME OF YEAR ALSO FAVORS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING WOULD ARGUE AGAINST SUSTAINED COLD AIR FOR THE DURATION. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS MOSTLY RA AT THE COAST...WITH CHC IP FOR THE ADJACENT INTERIOR...WITH ALL SN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST PCPN TOTALS SHOULD BE ALONG FAVORED SELY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MTNS. ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A NICE GRADIENT TO ANY POTENTIAL SNFL...WHEREVER THE RA/SN LINE SETS UP Models underpalying the cold air, Climo says its snows or at worst is frozen up here with that low track if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Models underpalying the cold air, Climo says its snows or at worst is frozen up here with that low track if it holds yup basically same forecast for you as me. I was giving CON but I am nw and colder than CON. You will maybe do quite well and maybe we have a few inches of snow or crust and then winter can really start. Be nice to have some snow cover and a good rad cool night week after next. And some snow on snow on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I just looped the weenie Euro snow graphics on wunderground and if that comes anywhere close to correct it will be a very snowy 7 days coming up. Pure weenie speculation though... all of CNE and NNE gets in on some EURO fun Thurs/Friday Forecast is for 1-3" tonight and tomorrow morning, 1-2" Tuesday, then this shows up on Thursday... Then it lights up again on Friday afternoon... Gradient pattern type stuff maybe? NNE and CNE first, then SNE in another week? Looks good for at least some winter storms to track which is a nice change of pace. Maybe we can start gaining ground again on climo. When I was at the NWS today all those guys were talking about how SNE picked up more snow in October than BTV has all season long, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 what do the colors on those maps mean PF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 yup basically same forecast for you as me. I was giving CON but I am nw and colder than CON. You will maybe do quite well and maybe we have a few inches of snow or crust and then winter can really start. Be nice to have some snow cover and a good rad cool night week after next. And some snow on snow on snow I think we cash in the next few weeks mark, I like the pattern turning colder and more active, It will help being on the right side of the gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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