CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Maybe someone we know can get a dumbfounding sleet event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Well the Euro is a dream come true run. Thursday performs up north... a bit of a Miller B... then the 1/16 snow threat Scooter and I have been mentioning. Euro ensembles definitely have a cold look with the Aleutian ridge sticking around for a while. The ridge builds into a very impressive Omega block which would likely keep the pattern fairly stable with the PV dislodged into Canada. I really like the look of it including 1/21 snow potential. Since your trip to vermont you are a changed man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Teleconnects with the PV dropping to Hudson bay to a Green land block no? NAO values are dropping fast. I don't see a -NAO at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Since your trip to vermont you are a changed man... I'm resigned to the fact I'm not getting much this year so my favorite places up north might as well cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Its gotten closer every day, maybe will not happen but if you get a tad of ridging with a feed out of Quebec you are in the ball game. BOX has thrown a couple of us the smallest of a weenie-bone. MAZ002-080900- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 416 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Steve the AO is not progged to be that negative, especially on the euro. It's actually neutral to a hair +. I think the ridging is just outside its domain. It doesn't take away from the ridging..just that the AO isn't that affected. With the PV in Hudsons bay and the pole with positive heights? Euro Ens imply neg to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Have not seen this all winter I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I don't see a -NAO at all Models seem to be trying each run to drop values more and more, maybe not in the next ten days but I am pretty confidant it develops the more I see. As Tip says the delta is important too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 With the PV in Hudsons bay and the pole with positive heights? Euro Ens imply neg to me. But that configuration stays. A trough right through the Davis Straits is the exact opposite of a -NAO. The only thing that tries to bring the domain near zero, is the slight ridging into ne Greenland, but I would say, it's a + NAO look. When I look at the whole H5 evolution, I don't really see ridging development in that area..not even any hints right now. Maybe it's something that will appear out of nowhere. Certainly possible, but not in the next 2 weeks at least and maybe 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That ridge slowly weakens and retrogrades a little too much toward Kamchatka by the end of the run. I just hope the AK vortex of death doesn't redevelop d20+. Yeah GEFS turn ugly at the end with the ridge retrograde. At least with the AO not sky high it won't be as ugly with low heights returning. I do think the tendency to lower heights over AK/GOA is going to prevent this pattern change from locking in for good... it may be temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Have not seen this all winter I think.... I don't think I've seen that in two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Models seem to be trying each run to drop values more and more, maybe not in the next ten days but I am pretty confidant it develops the more I see. As Tip says the delta is important too. I never really look at the indicies... just the height anomalies. I think the maps tell more about the pattern than those graphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I see no way we get ridging into the NAO region through the next 20 days right now. Hopefully in Feb. I do not understand this line of thinking. Dropping the PV into Hudson bay usually corresponds to ridging in Greenland no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 But that is not important anyways. What is important, is that our AK ridge stays put and doesn't retrograde or weaken too much. Right now, I'd take the pattern shown in a heartbeat. No question. We have to get it to stay put, but as shown..it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm resigned to the fact I'm not getting much this year so my favorite places up north might as well cash in! Well, I think we have a more favorable shot up here with these changes going forward for more winter type storms and cold then we have had in this crappy pattern the last 8 weeks, We got lucky a couple of times but the rest of the storms went in the toilet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I never really look at the indicies... just the height anomalies. I think the maps tell more about the pattern than those graphs. Exactly why i posted the Euro Ens map. How is that a pos AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Exactly why i posted the Euro Ens map. How is that a pos AO? It's not. Looks like a -AO to me with a +NAO (though ridging out east may try to nudge it down toward neutral). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 But that configuration stays. A trough right through the Davis Straits is the exact opposite of a -NAO. The only thing that tries to bring the domain near zero, is the slight ridging into ne Greenland, but I would say, it's a + NAO look. When I look at the whole H5 evolution, I don't really see ridging development in that area..not even any hints right now. Maybe it's something that will appear out of nowhere. Certainly possible, but not in the next 2 weeks at least and maybe 3 weeks. Wait, we were discussing AO. I posted that map in reply to your AO comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I do not understand this line of thinking. Dropping the PV into Hudson bay usually corresponds to ridging in Greenland no? But the PV has spokes right now that are in a stable position.One across sw Canada, one into the Plains which could be good for us as far as low pressure availability, and the other into the Davis straits. With that configuration, it's hard to get a -NAO. But, if that moves out a little, or we get some help from above...it could form. I may be wrong, but as of Jan 7, I think for at least the next 2 and possibly 3 weeks, the NAO may hover near neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 But the PV has spokes right now that are in a stable position.One across sw Canada, one into the Plains which could be good for us as far as low pressure availability, and the other into the Davis straits. With that configuration, it's hard to get a -NAO. But, if that moves out a little, or we get some help from above...it could form. I may be wrong, but as of Jan 7, I think for at least the next 2 and possibly 3 weeks, the NAO may hover near neutral. cool, great discussion and learning, about time we had something positive to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Wait, we were discussing AO. I posted that map in reply to your AO comment The AO indices I'm seeing a near neutral, but it really is semantics. If it were slightly + or -, it should not change any thinking since the ridging may only be included in part of its domain. I would think it's more - than + imo, as shown. I hate the text values of indices. I want people to look at H5 and get a sense of the pattern. It's the best way to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Have not seen this all winter I think.... please text this to Messenger, he has posted those all winter long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Bolstering my 1999-00 comment... Note 1/20/00 and compare to 2/20/00.....the year with a 1 month island of cold in a sea of warmth. Similar sensible wx to this year...and 2nd year Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Here is hour 360. Notice those spokes I was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 And yes, it could be possible to have a great 2-3 week stretch if progged. I don't want to be looked as a pessimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Here is hour 360. Notice those spokes I was referring to. I like that -PNA look too for an active southern stream. As you mentioned if that ridge retros too far into Russia we start getting into trouble with a milder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 But that configuration stays. A trough right through the Davis Straits is the exact opposite of a -NAO. The only thing that tries to bring the domain near zero, is the slight ridging into ne Greenland, but I would say, it's a + NAO look. When I look at the whole H5 evolution, I don't really see ridging development in that area..not even any hints right now. Maybe it's something that will appear out of nowhere. Certainly possible, but not in the next 2 weeks at least and maybe 3 weeks. Yeah as long as that vortex is dropping into the davis straight....that is essentially the opposite of good with respect to the NAO...I think we are going to have to forget about prolonged NAO cooperation for the time being, imo. Could be a case again where the index tickles neutral or whatnot but that would probably be owed entirely to some transient ridging in the far north central atlantic reaching up to the area east of greenland. But it would be offset anyway by those strong negative anomalies over western greenland and davis region. We might see the charts say "negative" but it wouldnt , imo, be very productive for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I like that -PNA look too for an active southern stream. As you mentioned if that ridge retros too far into Russia we start getting into trouble with a milder look. Yeah that was my hope. Get that PNA in a position to send storms our way, but we have to be careful not to be too greedy because it will send storms..just not that type we want..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Here is hour 360. Notice those spokes I was referring to. GEFS or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 For those about to rock(AND WE ARE) we salute you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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