Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 To put it softly ...sure. Jesus, that's a full on PV bifurcation event and evolving trans-polar conveyor there. The looks on people's faces when they realize what 2.5 months of +AO means when it flips negative and gapes the door of that cryosphere. One word: PAIN Babies crying for their Mommas. Mock me if you want about my giiddiness and epic outlook, the AO dropping off is great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Babies crying for their Mommas. Mock me if you want about my giiddiness and epic outlook, the AO dropping off is great news. It sure can. But we've also seen the effects of having an overly negative AO too. Suppression depression. Just get the AO/NAO to get to neutral to -1SD and I'll take my chances. We also need to build some snowpack in our cold source regions otherwise we will be screwed along the CP. I'm not overly optimistic at this point but I'll let this pattern change shake out before I pass judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It sure can. But we've also seen the effects of having an overly negative AO too. Suppression depression. Just get the AO/NAO to get to neutral to -1SD and I'll take my chances. We also need to build some snowpack in our cold source regions otherwise we will be screwed along the CP. I'm not overly optimistic at this point but I'll let this pattern change shake out before I pass judgement. It was the overbearing NAO which only left me with a meager 48 or so in 09/10. i will take my chances bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm not sure, guys, but this doesn't make me feel confident in a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Its nice to know snow chances are coming, this weather today was just magical, everyone around town with smiles on there faces, extra hop in there step. Spring fever abounds, actually beside a few days here and there its been around all fall and winter in most places, but today is special shorts tshirts and kids and adults skipping down the beach......if only they knew what was coming. I love my -2.5 30-65 1/20 onward call, and I am also starting to get a feeling March may truly be special...........adios nina could'nt agree with you more-it was fun being outside today with no coat or just a light jacket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It was the overbearing NAO which only left me with a meager 48 or so in 09/10. i will take my chances bro. I agree there Steve. Anything will be better than the pattern we've been in. Just don't know what's going to shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It was the overbearing NAO which only left me with a meager 48 or so in 09/10. i will take my chances bro. Yeah that was the lowest snowfall year up here in over 10 years because of that -NAO. I like neutral NAO/AO... that'd be just fine. This year is on pace for less snowfall though than 09-10 up here, so lets hope it can turn around. I just want a real storm, this nickel and dime stuff is nice and all (1-3" forecast tonight with post cold front NW flow) but its the lack of synoptic snows that are the real pain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 EC ensembles look about the same. I'd take that pattern and run, if it could verify. Ridging up beyond nw AK does weaken a bit and heights rise later in the east a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Well the Euro is a dream come true run. Thursday performs up north... a bit of a Miller B... then the 1/16 snow threat Scooter and I have been mentioning. Euro ensembles definitely have a cold look with the Aleutian ridge sticking around for a while. The ridge builds into a very impressive Omega block which would likely keep the pattern fairly stable with the PV dislodged into Canada. I really like the look of it including 1/21 snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 EC ensembles look about the same. I'd take that pattern and run, if it could verify. Ridging up beyond nw AK does weaken a bit and heights rise later in the east a little. I think the ridging/block signature is about as impressive as you can get for a D15 ensemble mean. I really like the blocking signature to lock the pattern in place and prevent the ridging from becoming transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 EC ensembles look about the same. I'd take that pattern and run, if it could verify. Ridging up beyond nw AK does weaken a bit and heights rise later in the east a little. Good. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Well the Euro is a dream come true run. Thursday performs up north... a bit of a Miller B... then the 1/16 snow threat Scooter and I have been mentioning. Euro ensembles definitely have a cold look with the Aleutian ridge sticking around for a while. The ridge builds into a very impressive Omega block which would likely keep the pattern fairly stable with the PV dislodged into Canada. I really like the look of it including 1/21 snow potential. 12Z Euro very close to pulling something off for the Berks, especially the N Berks. Looks like the Wundermap clown maps give MPM and points N some love. GFS also has a more suppressed track now as well even though it's a still a rainer around here verbatim. Although I'm not too excited just yet, this is beginning to pique my interest a little for these parts. If we can get a little more cold in place prior to event, elevated areas of western SNE may get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think the ridging/block signature is about as impressive as you can get for a D15 ensemble mean. I really like the blocking signature to lock the pattern in place and prevent the ridging from becoming transient. I think we need to be careful that the trough doesn't retrograde too far west and raise heights across our area. They start to do that at the end of the run. If I could lock the last couple of runs in I would, I just hope we see the ridge continue to hold strong and not have us getting mixed garbage and/or change to rain events. It wouldn't take much and that's just my concern. I'd hate to see it happen. I'm hoping the bias of the euro trying to lower heights too much out west occurs, but the pattern does argue for some sort of a -PNA type deal..especially a trough into Pac NW, not necessarily CA. Either way, I hope it has the right idea for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think we need to be careful that the trough doesn't retrograde too far west and raise heights across our area. They start to do that at the end of the run. If I could lock the last couple of runs in I would, I just hope we see the ridge continue to hold strong and not have us getting mixed garbage and/or change to rain events. It wouldn't take much and that's just my concern. I'd hate to see it happen. I'm hoping the bias of the euro trying to lower heights too much out west occurs, but the pattern does argue for some sort of a -PNA type deal..especially a trough into Pac NW, not necessarily CA. Either way, I hope it has the right idea for now. GEFS definitely breaks down and retrogrades the ridge more than Euro ensembles. GEFS turn sort of ugly by the end with the +EPO returning. That said I'm not sure the +EPO/-AO combination is a terrible one for us... anything would provide more chances than the pattern we're in now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Also with the heights rising a bit in the east and disturbances coming across CA and into central/srn plains...would think QPF is not a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 EC ensembles look about the same. I'd take that pattern and run, if it could verify. Ridging up beyond nw AK does weaken a bit and heights rise later in the east a little. That ridge slowly weakens and retrogrades a little too much toward Kamchatka by the end of the run. I just hope the AK vortex of death doesn't redevelop d20+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GEFS definitely breaks down and retrogrades the ridge more than Euro ensembles. GEFS turn sort of ugly by the end with the +EPO returning. That said I'm not sure the +EPO/-AO combination is a terrible one for us... anything would provide more chances than the pattern we're in now lol. As long as we can keep the PV more on our side, then it's ok. I see it trying to sneak nw possibly which may open the door for storm chances, but other things as well. I really wish Ginx would wave his magic NAO weenie right about now. Still see no signs of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That ridge slowly weakens and retrogrades a little too much toward Kamchatka by the end of the run. I just hope the AK vortex of death doesn't redevelop d20+. That's what I thought as well. Obviously, that's far out, but I hope maybe something occurs from the torchfest going on at 50mb. Big time warming up there progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 As long as we can keep the PV more on our side, then it's ok. I see it trying to sneak nw possibly which may open the door for storm chances, but other things as well. I really wish Ginx would wave his magic NAO weenie right about now. Still see no signs of it. hmmm CT Rain, on 07 January 2012 - 04:15 PM, said:I think the ridging/block signature is about as impressive as you can get for a D15 ensemble mean. I really like the blocking signature to lock the pattern in place and prevent the ridging from becoming transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That ridge slowly weakens and retrogrades a little too much toward Kamchatka by the end of the run. <b>I just hope the AK vortex of death doesn't redevelop d20+<b>. Geezus talk about finding a outhouse at the end of a rainbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 12Z Euro very close to pulling something off for the Berks, especially the N Berks. Looks like the Wundermap clown maps give MPM and points N some love. GFS also has a more suppressed track now as well even though it's a still a rainer around here verbatim. Although I'm not too excited just yet, this is beginning to pique my interest a little for these parts. If we can get a little more cold in place prior to event, elevated areas of western SNE may get lucky. Yeah--the devil's in the lack of preceding cold air and nothing getting drawn in. Ordinarily, I'd be chompin' at the bit over this. But it's not close enough to snow to make me lose sleep nor to be disappointed if it should wind up wet. 45.8/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Geezus talk about finding a outhouse at the end of a rainbow Trust me I'm optimistic for a 2 week stretch after we get through the next 5 days. I just threw that concern out there, but it is definitely way out there toward the end of January. It's d15 of a run too so it may not even come to fruition like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Trust me I'm optimistic for a 2 week stretch after we get through the next 5 days. I just threw that concern out there, but it is definitely way out there toward the end of January. It's d15 of a run too so it may not even come to fruition like that. NAO drops from +216 to near 0 too, when the AO tanks 82% of the time so does the NAO. I am liking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Trust me I'm optimistic for a 2 week stretch after we get through the next 5 days. I just threw that concern out there, but it is definitely way out there toward the end of January. It's d15 of a run too so it may not even come to fruition like that. I like the two week stretch for chances, but yeah..I don't think throwing that out there is unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yeah--the devil's in the lack of preceding cold air and nothing getting drawn in. Ordinarily, I'd be chompin' at the bit over this. But it's not close enough to snow to make me lose sleep nor to be disappointed if it should wind up wet. 45.8/32 Its gotten closer every day, maybe will not happen but if you get a tad of ridging with a feed out of Quebec you are in the ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 NAO drops from +216 to near 0 too, when the AO tanks 82% of the time so does the NAO. I am liking it. I see no way we get ridging into the NAO region through the next 20 days right now. Hopefully in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 NAO drops from +216 to near 0 too, when the AO tanks 82% of the time so does the NAO. I am liking it. To me, this is looking more and more like 1999-00. I think 3 weeks of winter but it seems doubtful it goes beyond a month. That's my sense but I understand that it's a crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 hmmm CT Rain, on 07 January 2012 - 04:15 PM, said:I think the ridging/block signature is about as impressive as you can get for a D15 ensemble mean. I really like the blocking signature to lock the pattern in place and prevent the ridging from becoming transient. I was talking about the blocking over the Aleutians not over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Steve the AO is not progged to be that negative, especially on the euro. It's actually neutral to a hair +. I think the ridging is just outside its domain. It doesn't take away from the ridging..just that the AO isn't that affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I was talking about the blocking over the Aleutians not over Greenland. Teleconnects with the PV dropping to Hudson bay to a Green land block no? NAO values are dropping fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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