danstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Torch overperforming courtesy of PAC jet, and we're not even done... Can anyone comment on the impact that long duration mild temps might have on seasonal lag? I assume snowcover / cold SSTs in a typical winter contribute to the seasonal lag of cold climatology behind winter solstice, but both are lacking this year... This winter is just LOL-able. Embrace its absurdity. Good question... I'm not sure there is definitive research out there on mild fall/early winter & seasonal lag but I would assume lack of snow cover/warm SSTs/warm ground/crocuses certainly help to blunt or delay the minimum temps... simple thermodynamics would argue for that. BTW the NAmer snowcover map Jerry posted speaks volumes... lowest areal coverage ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I honestly have not looked at any GFS run since early November. I just go by what you guys post about it on here. It's a waste of time using it or even looking at it. Don't get me wrong, I think some fun times are ahead...but with this winters personality, caution is advised not only in my own thinking but to all. If it fails, we have futility to track and that's an event also. I'm not hoping for that but if we get it I'll enjoy it, it may be the only futility I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Torch overperforming courtesy of PAC jet, and we're not even done... Can anyone comment on the impact that long duration mild temps might have on seasonal lag? I assume snowcover / cold SSTs in a typical winter contribute to the seasonal lag of cold climatology behind winter solstice, but both are lacking this year... What a nightmare this winter is becoming. I have had a trace all winter and thats it. I honestly cant count the october snow as going towards the winter totals. As far as im concerned this pathetic pattern has totally wiped them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS looks like parts of NNE (V NT, N NH, Maine) might get snow out of the day 5 storm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This winter is just LOL-able. Embrace its absurdity. Good question... I'm not sure there is definitive research out there on mild fall/early winter & seasonal lag but I would assume lack of snow cover/warm SSTs/warm ground/crocuses certainly help to blunt or delay the minimum temps... simple thermodynamics would argue for that. BTW the NAmer snowcover map Jerry posted speaks volumes... lowest areal coverage ever? Certainly ridiculously low in the USA. Canada is covered though and they'll get some serious cold I'm the coming weeks so things can actually change maybe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Don't get me wrong, I think some fun times are ahead...but with this winters personality, caution is advised not only in my own thinking but to all. If it fails, we have futility to track and that's an event also. I'm not hoping for that but if we get it I'll enjoy it, it may be the only futility I get. All I meant in my earlier posts, was to advise people that it may not deliver the goods as they wanted or as long as they wanted. I wasn't being a Debbie, as it's not my personality, but there are reasons for it. I as much as anyone hope for good events. Our chances are increased big time from what we had. If you can accept that, than you won't be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Certainly ridiculously low in the USA. Canada is covered though and they'll get some serious cold I'm the coming weeks so things can actually change maybe.... We can hope, but as they say in a sports season ... "It's getting late - early." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS looks like parts of NNE (V NT, N NH, Maine) might get snow out of the day 5 storm, no? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yes Maybe for Toot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We can hope, but as they say in a sports season ... "It's getting late - early." In my view we can't lose. Either the pattern rocks or we break records and embrace the warmth. Hey I'm 65 years old and thankfully healthy and content. I moved my bowels today. If it snows or not, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I knew today would be like this in here, just saw it coming. Going to be a brutal 5 days. 5 days left in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 In my view we can't lose. Either the pattern rocks or we break records and embrace the warmth. Hey I'm 65 years old and thankfully healthy and content. I moved my bowels today. If it snows or not, so be it. Or we pull a 2007 and have brutal cold with 3" of solid ice on the sidewalks for 6 weeks on end... while barely dodging futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This winter is just LOL-able. Embrace its absurdity. Good question... I'm not sure there is definitive research out there on mild fall/early winter & seasonal lag but I would assume lack of snow cover/warm SSTs/warm ground/crocuses certainly help to blunt or delay the minimum temps... simple thermodynamics would argue for that. BTW the NAmer snowcover map Jerry posted speaks volumes... lowest areal coverage ever? Not that anyone asked ... but I'm less impressed with any conus-proper snow cover anomalies. Fact of the matter is, over hundreds of years the snow cover over the conus is below the mid-line of transients, anyways - meaning the probability is all that high for snow cover, particularly south of 40N; this year is purely a function of not having storm traffic on the cold side of 540 in the means. The snow cover over the Canadian shield is fine, and would serve the 40th parallel just fine should the outward teleconnectors flip and finally drill a more meaningful pattern change. In terms of the NH et al, this year enjoyed a huge positive anomaly in snow cover up until mid December - not sure where it stands over the last month, but at that time 1966 was the last time the snow cover over the hemisphere was that high. Fact of the matter is ... this is purely a function of bad luck with the teleconnectors teaming up in exotic ways to make this happen. There's plenty of cold, there's plenty of snow; it's just not in the collective's proverbial backyard so the sky must be falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Maybe for Toot. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Man, I can't believe all the toasty temps for you guys, Well i can with no snowpack..ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 In my view we can't lose. Either the pattern rocks or we break records and embrace the warmth. Hey I'm 65 years old and thankfully healthy and content. I moved my bowels today. If it snows or not, so be it. lol..this pattern has been very constipated since September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 With the 16th and 21st snow threats? WOTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Or we pull a 2007 and have brutal cold with 3" of solid ice on the sidewalks for 6 weeks on end... while barely dodging futility. Remember that absurdity? I think you were living in the kenmore sq area. I had a great lecturing invitation in Israel and we left BOS in march with the temperature around 5F. Returning in the early stages of the futility buster. But I won't lie, seeing heavy snow futility buster and all made me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Not that anyone asked ... but I'm less impressed with any conus-proper snow cover anomalies. Fact of the matter is, over hundreds of years the snow cover over the conus is below the mid-line of transients, anyways - meaning the probability is all that high for snow cover, particularly south of 40N; this year is purely a function of not having storm traffic on the cold side of 540 in the means. The snow cover over the Canadian shield is fine, and would serve the 40th parallel just fine should the outward teleconnectors flip and finally drill a more meaningful pattern change. In terms of the NH et al, this year enjoyed a huge positive anomaly in snow cover up until mid December - not sure where it stands over the last month, but at that time 1966 was the last time the snow cover over the hemisphere was that high. Fact of the matter is ... this is purely a function of bad luck with the teleconnectors teaming up in exotic ways to make this happen. There's plenty of cold, there's plenty of snow; it's just not in the collective's proverbial backyard so the sky must be falling. Yes and I heard Jeff Masters from Wunderground throw in climate change too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The GEFS and EC ensembles would be pretty good for us overall, I think as is. Both have different H5 patterns, but I would take either one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Remember that absurdity? I think you were living in the kenmore sq area. I had a great lecturing invitation in Israel and we left BOS in march with the temperature around 5F. Returning in the early stages of the futility buster. But I won't lie, seeing heavy snow futility buster and all made me happy. Good memory ... yeah, I was right on Commonwealth above Sugar Daddy's and remember snow-sleet-rain for VD then frigid temps thereafter... slush turned to bulletproof ice and lasted forever it seemed. And who are we kidding... we love snow ... I will never be disappointed by a futility buster... I now live in Manhattan (but keep Ridgefield, Ct. in my sig as it allows me to peruse this forum sans ridicule)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Good memory ... yeah, I was right on Commonwealth above Sugar Daddy's and remember snow-sleet-rain for VD then frigid temps thereafter... slush turned to bulletproof ice and lasted forever it seemed. And who are we kidding... we love snow ... I will never be disappointed by a futility buster... I now live in Manhattan (but keep Ridgefield, Ct. in my sig as it allows me to peruse this forum sans ridicule)... I've made it known often that I'm a New Yorker exiled for 47 years. But we do get more snow in Boston and now it is my home, the only home my daughter has known so I'm not going anywhere. Pattern change ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yes and I heard Jeff Masters from Wunderground throw in climate change too. I know it and it's all just so absurd... Just looking at that NH snow cover, it's a matter of atmospheric idiosyncrasy and nothing more that the snow isn't S of 40N, and it's amazing the tone blow back going on around here and Met at large. Get the f over it already! Christ I think it would hilarious if we got two of the biggest snow storms in history between Feb 20 and April 1, and wound up above normal in snow for the season. I tell you what, in 500,000,000 years the sun will be 10% hotter than it is today, and winters will be a thing of geological past... so yeah, the climate is changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I tell you what, in 500,000,000 years the sun will be 10% hotter than it is today, and winters will be a thing of geological past... so yeah, the climate is changing Well fool it then, I'm going to stop exercising and begin eating much more fat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Damn....12z Euro is cold on the front end for the d5 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 By the way, there's a small chance for light snow in the air around 60-70 hours out. Most guidance have a flat wave with some DPVA cutting through the skies around then, with enough cold, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Well fool it then, I'm going to stop exercising and begin eating much more fat.. lmao - But seriously... the point is just that there's no point to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 I know it and it's all just so absurd... Just looking at that NH snow cover, it's a matter of atmospheric idiosyncrasy and nothing more that the snow isn't S of 40N, and it's amazing the tone blow back going on around here and Met at large. Get the f over it already! Christ I think it would hilarious if we got two of the biggest snow storms in history between Feb 20 and April 1, and wound up above normal in snow for the season. I tell you what, in 500,000,000 years the sun will be 10% hotter than it is today, and winters will be a thing of geological past... so yeah, the climate is changing But the Earth will also be about 1% further from the Sun ... lol And the Milankovitch Cycles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Damn....12z Euro is cold on the front end for the d5 storm. 850s never go above 0C here. lolHopefully the ridging/CAD trends a little stronger over the next few runs. Maybe some spots even south of Toot can get a wintry surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 850s never go above 0C here. lol Hopefully the ridging/CAD trends a little stronger over the next few runs. Maybe some spots even south of Toot can get a wintry surprise. I think it's an important observation actually; I noted this yesterday in a post that thermal profile in few runs cycles off and on supported aggregate type snowballs down as far as EEN... something to keep track of just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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