forkyfork Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 ORH is already +20 for today's high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 12 hr GFS showing benchmark storm mid January with rain in NNE? Someone wake me from this nightmmare. Somewhat on topic but when I was in coastal RI over Christmas weekend I noticed not only was the lawns fully green, but grass was still growing on southern sides of the houses. WTF??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 But is the gradient pattern real? Seems like that's the go to move of the models when they're in a state of flux. It has not panned out really yet, the gradient either is weak or it's far north. Look at the GFS at 12z, look at how much it changed already over the 0z later. Yes it does seem as though everyday the models are getting further and further away from a gradient pattern but I'm more interested in what happens after this upcoming week. If this keeps up, I'll end up with a new record....least snowfall in a Winter season and that would be sad because other Winters that are in the top 5 list include 06-07 and 09-10 with 09-10 seeing the lowest. If you observe 189 hours you'd notice cold anomalies trying to push towards Southern Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 ORH is already +20 for today's high LL pants tent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 ORH is already +20 for today's high Are some going to make a run at 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Well enough with the b*tchfest. We'll just have to hope for the best, knowing what can go right or wrong. Nothing we can do. Certainly hope something like the EC will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Are some going to make a run at 60? I noticed abotu 20 minutes ago one station was showing 59 in Fall River area and a few 60's interior LI on S. NE mesomap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Are some going to make a run at 60? 56 here but next weeks major storm thread so along those lines. Hard to fathom, especially with no overbearing NAO sending in puked marine air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 56 here but next weeks major storm thread so along those lines. Hard to fathom, especially with no overbearing NAO sending in puked marine air. PAC jet FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 ORH is already +20 for today's high 53F here, already 4 above forecast high. Maybe we can get to 55-56? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 In this upcoming pattern the greatest threat for snow may just be from OES from persistent onshore flow with cold air over really warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 In this upcoming pattern the greatest threat for snow may just be from OES from persistent onshore flow with cold air over really warm water. Nah, I think we'll have low pressure approaching...not really worried about low QPF for now. I think it will be gradient like with the potential for other types of lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Here we go boys and girls ... wait, are there girls here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Nah, I think we'll have low pressure approaching...not really worried about low QPF for now. I think it will be gradient like with the potential for other types of lows. I'd wager today that I see more snow from OES than I do storm snow in the next 10-12 days. Here we go boys and girls ... wait, are there girls here? Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Messengers in a full on posting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Here we go boys and girls ... wait, are there girls here? Hoping that will kick the vortex in the fanny in February. EC ensembles torch 50mb, but it has to downwell first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We've said it before ( noting wxniss browsing), if we get through the next 3 weeks relatively snowless, embrace the futility record and out your warmister shirt on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm curious whether we could break some snowless low temperature records day 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm curious whether we could break some snowless low temperature records day 10+ With the 16th and 21st snow threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 OP GFS...yeah yeah I know...but with rose colored glasses on and macro looks it's not been too bad long long term....the trend continues to be the cold air eroding after 1/22ish and the ridge rebuilding. I'll run with that call right now, fits the climo and my thinking. A 5-7 day cold shot followed by the ridge flexing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 The most recent teleconnector layout (last night) is still not arguing hugely for a pattern correction one way or the other? The PNA is mop ended in the graphs for the individual members at the CPC, and above and below the neutral axis at CDC out in time. Not really committing to positive or negative in doing so. The EPO was showing a more discerned negative, ...offering hope to cold seekers, but that seems to have relaxed a bit. The NAO is trying to fall to neutral, but is also then mop-ended out in time. Basically, flip a f* coin. That's the truth about the teleconnectors and what they are signaling, regardless of the collective voice on the forum pushing a pattern change across. I think this "pattern change" ...call it what you want... is a base state change helping to dump cold air equatorward on this side of the globe ...most related in the EPO domain, as you said. In southern Canada, they probably won't be as nonchalant with this change as it will mean significant cooling. Here, since the effect on sensible weather is still questionable, we are reluctant to outwardly announce a meaningful change. However, what this provides us is access to a reservoir of cold air. Changes in the PNA and NAO domains will be related to storm opportunities. Specifically, I think abrupt changes in the PNA within this new regime will be linked to the introduction of disturbances into the CONUS, and any coinciding changes in the NAO will be linked to significance down the road in the East. For me, I think the weather is entertaining enough with this interesting trough interaction coming up here in the middle range. Thank you!! Looks like it's just you and I who have some invested interest in this. Snow or no snow (most likely), this will be fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 With the 16th and 21st snow threats? lol riiight, yeah I'm not going to start naming snow threats in the op GFS until the first storm is locked down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 With the 16th and 21st snow threats? The 16th is a non starter. The 21st is 2 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The 16th is a non starter. The 21st is 2 weeks away. What is a non starter? It's a legit threat...And I'll again ask everyone ..why are they looking at the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Torch overperforming courtesy of PAC jet, and we're not even done... Can anyone comment on the impact that long duration mild temps might have on seasonal lag? I assume snowcover / cold SSTs in a typical winter contribute to the seasonal lag of cold climatology behind winter solstice, but both are lacking this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think this "pattern change" ...call it what you want... is a base state change helping to dump cold air equatorward on this side of the globe ...most related in the EPO domain, as you said. In southern Canada, they probably won't be as nonchalant with this change as it will mean significant cooling. Here, since the effect on sensible weather is still questionable, we are reluctant to outwardly announce a meaningful change. However, what this provides us is access to a reservoir of cold air. Changes in the PNA and NAO domains will be related to storm opportunities. Specifically, I think abrupt changes in the PNA within this new regime will be linked to the introduction of disturbances into the CONUS, and any coinciding changes in the NAO will be linked to significance down the road in the East. Thank you!! Looks like it's just you and I who have some invested interest in this. Snow or no snow (most likely), this will be fun to watch! It will be interesting to see unfold. GEFS are interesting. They cutoff a big ridge NW of AK and then retrograde the trough towards the GOA and try and pop a weak sw US ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The 16th is a non starter. The 21st is 2 weeks away. Well for Kevin's sake...he better hope the GFS is right..lol, even though he is saying don't look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Well for Kevin's sake...he better hope the GFS is right..lol, even though he is saying don't look at it. I honestly have not looked at any GFS run since early November. I just go by what you guys post about it on here. It's a waste of time using it or even looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 With the 16th and 21st snow threats? Not sure if we can define threats at this point for snow with so much volatility in the pattern especially looking out to two weeks. Any previous threats that were outlined have all relatively failed at this point in the snow department for most all areas outside NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 What is a non starter? It's a legit threat...And I'll again ask everyone ..why are they looking at the GFS? We have to wait to 1/20 probably..maybe even 2/30 as you mentioned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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