mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 this I agree with , all systems have been warm side loaded with precip, we need backside snows at least does this inland runner lay snow on the backside? I wonder what happens with all the energy drug north by this next storm....looks to go into S QB. Where does it go from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 this I agree with , all systems have been warm side loaded with precip, we need backside snows at least It would be nice to see a clipper track south of sne for a change after the rainstorm later next week seems like even after these storms that are inside runners or warm coastals because of the warm antedecent air masses clippers are traveling across the southern portions of the Hudson Bay. They start out ok on modeling and move north with each successive run. I still like chances after the 20th but if the Euro ens are correct with lowering heights over the mountain west I fear a gradient may cut through the heart of sne, nothing set in stone but we really need a big time shake up. I hope this storm modeled next week really wraps up, if its some 998 thing cutting up the coastal plain I am not sure how much it will really do, might take 1 or 2 more messy inside runners or cutters to do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 i have mixed emotions here. it's definitely good to see that ridging bumping through the aleutians and into the arctic creating the -wpo/epo pattern. that's the main change to shake things up. but the low heights out west and just persistent pulsing negative anomalies with that vortex over the davis straight and greenland vicinity are a tough combo. i don't know. PV displacement will be the ultimate key.That AK ridge would displace the PV towards Hudson Bay. Ultimately if that ridge is as strong as progged a Neg AO will induce a Neg NAO, there is a 82% correlation to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 i have mixed emotions here. it's definitely good to see that ridging bumping through the aleutians and into the arctic creating the -wpo/epo pattern. that's the main change to shake things up. but the low heights out west and just persistent pulsing negative anomalies with that vortex over the davis straight and greenland vicinity are a tough combo. i don't know. But what is the trend with that NATL High? Is it building in? If so it looks pretty easy to bring to the NP High. If that happens then the Greenland low will get push sw towards HB. I know that is what we want, but that looks possible. Either that or... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It's not a lot of fun tracking rain storms in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Right, Phil..."I don't know"....as in a marginal set up, but at 42*+ of latitude during the dead of winter, you are going to snow in a marginal pattern, albeit probably not at a prolific pace. right...i tend to agree. that's pretty much where i'm at on this. i don't think we are going to run end-to-end snowless but i also don't feel like we are locking in a pattern that will persistently deliver either. i could see us getting screwed a bit....but if the cold can press enough, things will work more in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It's not a lot of fun tracking rain storms in January. nice bod ... who is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The one thing preventing a Ray meltdown is the Bruins don't suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I won't need blocking to grab 15" during Feb at this latitude. Disagree. See Phil's comment. I did not say we can't snow, just that I'm not getting my hopes up on anything prolific..hell we could even get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I can't say whether Don is going to be right or wrong but his statement that recent runs of the GFS back him up through 1/23 is kind of kooky if you ask me. They do in fact back him up but to say the GFS out to 300 hours is your source of confidence in a forecast is like having to trust Jerry Sandusky to baby sit your little boys. Thats just wrong. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro ensembles really are pushing for lower heights over the Canadian Rockies. That's going to help form a big gradient pattern somewhere. They do try to raise heights in the East, like we've been saying with a -PNA. I wish we had some blocking...I'm just not that excited right now..other than we may have some chances. I think it cuts it close for us. I think every other person on here as said the same thing in some shape or form. Me too and based on the models having consistently pushed the gradient - in some cases signifantly further south than it ended up being in this range, I'm not that excited. It's a change to another type of pattern that is likely to be cooler for a period but for what durating who knows. It is for me. But this is nothing like a normal winter for you either and so far doesn't look to be any different over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The EC ensembles in the 11-15 day were decent. They had a strong gradient pattern with the storm track just south of us, but pretty close by for an 11-15 day prog. I just think it's too early to proclaim flips to eternal winter when things aren't quite lined up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The EC ensembles in the 11-15 day were decent. They had a strong gradient pattern with the storm track just south of us, but pretty close by for an 11-15 day prog. I just think it's too early to proclaim flips to eternal winter when things aren't quite lined up. I'm not worried about that time period, it's coming. It's beyond that...where I think there are some red flags that things relax again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 See Phil's comment. I did not say we can't snow, just that I'm not getting my hopes up on anything prolific..hell we could even get screwed. I don't think anyone on here is expecting prolific snows with this pattern change. If I saw one inch of snow, I'd be thrilled. It's been that bad. And anyone else amused how you can get a 986LP SE of Cape Cod and still have rain to Canada! (06z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Me too and based on the models having consistently pushed the gradient - in some cases signifantly further south than it ended up being in this range, I'm not that excited. It's a change to another type of pattern that is likely to be cooler for a period but for what durating who knows. i think the hope is we cash in on an event or three in the second half of this month as this push of arctic air comes down...and then as the regime transitions again early in february maybe we start to look to the NAO to help us out in february / march. i agree with scooter in that i can't get a feel for whether our later january events are going to be of the SWFE variety...which could be good but of course we run the risk of something cutting...or if everything drops southward enough that we end up with a more clipper-look to the pattern...in which case we hope for redevelopment and not suppression. i honestly go back-and-forth every few hours. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 i think the hope is we cash in on an event or three in the second half of this month as this push of arctic air comes down...and then as the regime transitions again early in february maybe we start to look to the NAO to help us out in february / march. i agree with scooter in that i can't get a feel for whether our later january events are going to be of the SWFE variety...which could be good but of course we run the risk of something cutting...or if everything drops southward enough that we end up with a more clipper-look to the pattern...in which case we hope for redevelopment and not suppression. i honestly go back-and-forth every few hours. LOL. Same here and its the mixed signals that's giving me pause. Heck being selfish but I'd be happy with highs riding out north of us and we get OES here and there for a few weeks, it's that rough right now. My fear is that we get these sharp deep pushes of cold followed by a gradual relaxation. We then end up with bookend highs off each coast so the cold fades prior to the next storm and the pattern repeats over and over like is happening now. I can still see strong hints of that later in the period in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 i think the hope is we cash in on an event or three in the second half of this month as this push of arctic air comes down...and then as the regime transitions again early in february maybe we start to look to the NAO to help us out in february / march. i agree with scooter in that i can't get a feel for whether our later january events are going to be of the SWFE variety...which could be good but of course we run the risk of something cutting...or if everything drops southward enough that we end up with a more clipper-look to the pattern...in which case we hope for redevelopment and not suppression. i honestly go back-and-forth every few hours. LOL. I do too. It looks like nao ridging may try to form at the very very tail end of the EC ensembles, but it's very subtle. Probably not until February before we see anything like that..if at all. You can make cases for each variety. GFS op had some Miller As too. I guess my money is on a -PNA type deal out west with troughing into the Pacific NW and more of a gradient deal. That's great and all, but what scares me, is if we get a more excited trough pushing into the Pac NW. With no blocking, we may have the thing run right into New England. It's not pessimism or looking at the glass half empty..it's a possibiity that could very well happen. Hopefully we get slammed and Kevin is throwing AWT's everywhere, but we still have some decent model spread up by the poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It's not a lot of fun tracking rain storms in January. awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think....given everything we've been through wx wise this winter, we take the progs we have to the bank and run. Sure we can have some..heck maybe even all storms screw us. But to be in the game....having a refreshed bullpen and guys back from the dl in the lineup gives us a fighting chance. We've been fielding a class A lineup all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Everyone should just be happy that we're getting a regime change...especially out in the Pacific. Could the pattern fail to deliver lots of snow? Sure. We've had favorable patterns relatively screw us over as well...you only have to go back to 09-10 for that. It's just going to be nice to finally get rid of that AK vortex and at least increase our chance for cold and wintry events. The pattern that we've been in gave us no chance at all minus some snows in upslope land during CAA. Maybe this pattern won't be as good for NYC-south, but we've scored at times in patterns like this before. Now we just need to fast forward 7-10 days to see the devil in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 after reading all of this, i am more confused than ever. is a pattern change likely to occur the latter half of this month or not? as for snow...for new england ive never liked using total snow for a season as an indicator if a season was snowy or not. take 96-97 for example, very much below normal in snowfall...until 4/1. using total snow events or accumulation per event would be a better indicator. No one really knows, but there are some observations in the hemispheric environment that offer that plausibility. As of yet, there is a lot of picking and choosing operational runs and ensemble guidance packages that situate with one's personal beliefs on the matter - luckily for all, to great convenience what we are seeing allows for just about any vision. The trouble with that is ... we are in a "pattern" where there is about equal probability of either a warm or cool results/verification in the dailies (what it actually does day to day) over the next ~ month. *BUT*, that is predicated on the assumption that the "pattern" is not changing - which would be neolithic incompetence to go on such an assumption. And around and around we go ... The best hope is to look at those environmental observations for suggestions - less than bold assertions: ENSO: Hasn't meant a thing. The typical temperature (not as sure about moisture) and moisture anomaly distribution associated with a moderate --> weak La Nina progression have failed with shimmering alarm all autumn and early winter. Why? Who knows, but it does appear "maybe" that the GLAAM has been sort of out of sync with it. The torque anomalies ( http://www.esrl.noaa...m.sig.90day.gif ) through much of November and December ranged slightly negative in the total for the Globe. Looking above and below the equator, the culpability for that appears about equally distributed above and below ... Meaning, the whole of the planet appears to have passed through an interval of time that crush and shattered the Pacifics ability to push a circulation at the company meeting so to speak. Why? Unforseeable force lurking that hates winter is establishing proxy that violates actual physics laws, is probably one's most responsible and objective, educated guess. Joking aside ... that may be changing. The recent 10 days have seen a rather dramatic shift in those totals, now rather anomalously positive - yet the flow doesn't seem to really reflect that on this side of the hemisphere (again, still appears the distribution of torque is fairly uniform on both sides of the equator). Just an "observation" ... perhaps that is a signal that there are things going on in the background that may surge to the foreground, suggesting a more meaningful (meaning obvious/discerned) pattern alterations - probably would mean blocking. If nothing else, one could almost assume at some point a La Nina pattern would emerge in all this, too. That's all an example of observations in the environment... We're still trying to realize/verify any damn thing and are having trouble. Days, ...clicking by into weeks, winter aging mercilessly, with failing correlations of these indicators, until what? We get a snow storm and historic cold wave on April 20th? Just weird. Another suggestion/observation is a recent stratospheric warming event... It doesn't appear this first onset of surging temperature and geopotential flux at obscenely high altitudes within the PV perimeter will be propagating downward. However, as history has shown, often times more major events that did sink downward were often enough led by one that did not spatial/temporally... Like, warm hits, doesn't go down, then another hits 10 days later, it does... Down is good for negative AO correlation. The seasonal Arctic Oscillation thus far has been dominated by positive mode status'. As of last night, CPC has initialized the AO very close to neutral - which by comparison is a helluva lot lower in index value than the preceding 2 -3 weeks (seemingly billions of years). That should signal at least a temporary relaxation in the strength of the polar vortex...is it enough to argue for "blocking"? Tough call.. but it is not a big leap to imagine more cold bleeding into the middle latitudes (whereby it would be available to storms). In affect we're already seeing that; more operational runs showing deep cold loading have been occurring in recent days, though they (as usual) disagree on how said could will incur if at all below the 40th parallel. The most recent teleconnector layout (last night) is still not arguing hugely for a pattern correction one way or the other? The PNA is mop ended in the graphs for the individual members at the CPC, and above and below the neutral axis at CDC out in time. Not really committing to positive or negative in doing so. The EPO was showing a more discerned negative, ...offering hope to cold seekers, but that seems to have relaxed a bit. The NAO is trying to fall to neutral, but is also then mop-ended out in time. Basically, flip a f* coin. That's the truth about the teleconnectors and what they are signaling, regardless of the collective voice on the forum pushing a pattern change across. Now ... that doesn't mean it can't snow from local time/space events... but those types of results are really closer to now cast/astute observations on tedious scales that really can't be defined by taking the out-of-box/generalized view. Case in point... this interesting ball of dynamics that rolls up the EC out ahead of a N stream L/W emergence about 6 or so days from now ... that could flash over to heavy snow in heart beat for eastern NY/western MA, VT/NH and ME should said N stream punch into the backside in a timely fashion. That's may or may not now be really depicted obviously, but isn't an impossible scenario, just the same. Things of that nature... Whether the teleconnectors currently flag an obvious change, also, does not mean one is not coming. I have seen these things enter mode changes rather abruptly ... as though the exertion comes on all at once. Should a propagating warm anomaly combine with whatever background positive GLAAM, together with a La Nina (alas) pattern insert all converge temporally, than viola - winter gets so severe people then rue all this pining going on during relative quiescence. For me, I think the weather is entertaining enough with this interesting trough interaction coming up here in the middle range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Everyone should just be happy that we're getting a regime change...especially out in the Pacific. Could the pattern fail to deliver lots of snow? Sure. We've had favorable patterns relatively screw us over as well...you only have to go back to 09-10 for that. It's just going to be nice to finally get rid of that AK vortex and at least increase our chance for cold and wintry events. The pattern that we've been in gave us no chance at all minus some snows in upslope land during CAA. Maybe this pattern won't be as good for NYC-south, but we've scored at times in patterns like this before. Now we just need to fast forward 7-10 days to see the devil in the details. Most certainly. I am, and you should be feeling pretty good where you are. I'm hoping I can squeeze out a couple of decent storms instead of 1-3" and then washed away. That's my concern, but I'm just happy to see that filth go away for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I don't care. I'm skiing everyday and I'll be leaving here soon for Nirvana. The only bummer this winter has been reading your posts along with you evil twin LL. It's driven me away from the board.congrats. I'm thinking it's more that the "change is coming and patience" you've been touting since November has resulted in no snow in most places and a fraction of what is normal in others. Optimism FTL, reality FTW. Have a safe trip to where real winter is occuring. This torch is wretched. TT, sure the pattern is changing at least temporarily but the weather we really care about, snow, may not be seeing much of a change. We don't know yet. Even in the years we had ice in the canal, ice on the ponds started to thin out by mid February. By now we've been long since skating the last few years. This year it's not even iced over yet. So we have about a week or two to get cold, ice up, and enjoy it if snow isn't part of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 despite the cold look of the GFES, every member that shows an amplified system at some point has it as a rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm thinking it's more that the "change is coming and patience" you've been touting since November has resulted in no snow in most places and a fraction of what is normal in others. Optimism FTL, reality FTW. Have a safe trip to where real winter is occuring. This torch is wretched. TT, sure the pattern is changing at least temporarily but the weather we really care about, snow, may not be seeing much of a change. We don't know yet. Even in the years we had ice in the canal, ice on the ponds started to thin out by mid February. By now we've been long since skating the last few years. This year it's not even iced over yet. So we have about a week or two to get cold, ice up, and enjoy it if snow isn't part of the equation. What?! I wrote all that ...and it has NOTHING to do with support or not supporting a pattern change. It's explaining everything else - but since you brought it up, let me re-iterate: "Now ... that doesn't mean it can't snow from local time/space events... but those types of results are really closer to now cast/astute observations on tedious scales that really can't be defined by taking the out-of-box/generalized view. Case in point... this interesting ball of dynamics that rolls up the EC out ahead of a N stream L/W emergence about 6 or so days from now ... that could flash over to heavy snow in heart beat for eastern NY/western MA, VT/NH and ME should said N stream punch into the backside in a timely fashion. That's may or may not now be really depicted obviously, but isn't an impossible scenario, just the same. Things of that nature..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The EC ensembles in the 11-15 day were decent. They had a strong gradient pattern with the storm track just south of us, but pretty close by for an 11-15 day prog. I just think it's too early to proclaim flips to eternal winter when things aren't quite lined up. A gradient pattern is heck of alot better than what we've been seeing thus far and even though it may come with a few negatives it can't be any more worse that the past 2 months. Even though it would be nice to get some blocking, it seems as though that doesnt seem likely atleast thru Jan 15th-20th. I do think a pseudo EB -NAO anomaly will build around Jan 15th but I dont see it lasting for more than a few days. Any pattern change were going to get thru the next 1-2 weeks is going to come from the Pacific despite models constantly showing a -PNA, we atleast get rid of the darn AK Vortex and try to build a -EPO to cool Canada down atleast. 2007-08, 1964-65, 1949-50 were gradient patterns and I cashed in fairly well in all three Winters, lets see. Hmm its funny, this winter is ending up like 74-75 and 99-00, most dreaded Nina Winters ever lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 992 sitting bodily under LI in Jan and the 850/700 passing underneath with NE winds and its pouring, unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 despite the cold look of the GFES, every member that shows an amplified system at some point has it as a rain event I think everyone agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 despite the cold look of the GFES, every member that shows an amplified system at some point has it as a rain event Yep and remember the GEFS has been on the gradient pattern since later November. Go back and look at the threads around Thanksgiving, GEFS FTL on a cold gradient pattern in December. What?! I wrote all that ...and it has NOTHING to do with support or not supporting a pattern change. It's explaining everything else - but since you brought it up, let me re-iterate: "Now ... that doesn't mean it can't snow from local time/space events... but those types of results are really closer to now cast/astute observations on tedious scales that really can't be defined by taking the out-of-box/generalized view. Case in point... this interesting ball of dynamics that rolls up the EC out ahead of a N stream L/W emergence about 6 or so days from now ... that could flash over to heavy snow in heart beat for eastern NY/western MA, VT/NH and ME should said N stream punch into the backside in a timely fashion. That's may or may not now be really depicted obviously, but isn't an impossible scenario, just the same. Things of that nature..." I'm not disagreeing, I'm just saying for most people when it's 55 degrees in January and sunny...pattern change to them is COLD AND SNOW, not a return to more normal. Just speaking in general. We don't know if the snow component exists yet. A gradient pattern is heck of alot better than what we've been seeing thus far and even though it may come with a few negatives it can't be any more worse that the past 2 months. Even though it would be nice to get some blocking, it seems as though that doesnt seem likely atleast thru Jan 15th-20th. I do think a pseudo EB -NAO anomaly will build around Jan 15th but I dont see it lasting for more than a few days. Any pattern change were going to get thru the next 1-2 weeks is going to come from the Pacific despite models constantly showing a -PNA, we atleast get rid of the darn AK Vortex and try to build a -EPO to cool Canada down atleast. 2007-08, 1964-65, 1949-50 were gradient patterns and I cashed in fairly well in all three Winters, lets see. Hmm its funny, this winter is ending up like 74-75 and 99-00, most dreaded Nina Winters ever lol. But is the gradient pattern real? Seems like that's the go to move of the models when they're in a state of flux. It has not panned out really yet, the gradient either is weak or it's far north. Look at the GFS at 12z, look at how much it changed already over the 0z later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 992 sitting bodily under LI in Jan and the 850/700 passing underneath with NE winds and its pouring, unreal It's almost unreal. Also take a look at the SR camshot...mountain empty on a perfect day to ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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