CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm pretty sure Chris didn't guarantee cold and wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 And you're also assuming that I'm saying cutter after cutter. My point is that prolonged cold and snow is not a guarantee by any means. It is for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Kevin, I have no clue why you are going around saying Don S is wrong. Bad tact, considering we haven't even seen a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Kevin, I have no clue why you are going around saying Don S is wrong. Bad tact, considering we haven't even seen a change. Because I think he is..Everything is pointing to it. Modelling,indices, and the pattern. Nothing wrong with voicing my opinion. I'm tired of people tip toeing around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 As I pondered Don's analysis I was thinking that at least in CNE and NNE we don't need below normal to snow...we just need storms to cut under us and some cold air to tap. If this pattern shifts we should have that. I feel like the next 2 weeks are a literal shuffling of the deck and we will see what we get. Any change will be good at this point and odds favor, at least up here, a period of snow and cold. I don't think btw we are due for a clunker. 06-07 was pretty bad (I didn't live here) I think, 07-08 was la epic, 08-09 was better than average, 09-10 was a clunker, 10-11 was very good for 7 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Because I think he is..Everything is pointing to it. Modelling,indices, and the pattern. Nothing wrong with voicing my opinion. I'm tired of people tip toeing around LOL, alright man well good luck. Feet and feet and feet of snow coming. Epic 6 weeks ahead. Just snow up to our ballz. People abandoning their vehicles. Roof collapes. Boston harbor freezing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The NAO caused the extra degree. GFS blew but here's the ensembles...decent to say the least, D11-15. in a pattern change we have to look at ensembles not the OP for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boolean Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 after reading all of this, i am more confused than ever. is a pattern change likely to occur the latter half of this month or not? as for snow...for new england ive never liked using total snow for a season as an indicator if a season was snowy or not. take 96-97 for example, very much below normal in snowfall...until 4/1. using total snow events or accumulation per event would be a better indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 after reading all of this, i am more confused than ever. is a pattern change likely to occur the latter half of this month or not? as for snow...for new england ive never liked using total snow for a season as an indicator if a season was snowy or not. take 96-97 for example, very much below normal in snowfall...until 4/1. using total snow events or accumulation per event would be a better indicator. The pattern is changing, but it doesn't necessarily mean prolonged cold and snow for our neck of the woods. Our chances for snow are increased no doubt, but we may straddle the line in terms of wintry precip. I think NNE looks pretty good at the moment, I can't get a feel for SNE right now, other than we'll have chances. It's just too early to figure that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 after reading all of this, i am more confused than ever. is a pattern change likely to occur the latter half of this month or not? as for snow...for new england ive never liked using total snow for a season as an indicator if a season was snowy or not. take 96-97 for example, very much below normal in snowfall...until 4/1. using total snow events or accumulation per event would be a better indicator. the best indicator of a season is snow depth days. Some folks think accumulation numbers make a season, not me. Its winter in its entirety which this year is wretched. But check this out. http://wermenh.com/sdd/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The pattern is changing, but it doesn't necessarily mean prolonged cold and snow for our neck of the woods. Our chances for snow are increased no doubt, but we may straddle the line in terms of wintry precip. I think NNE looks pretty good at the moment, I can't get a feel for SNE right now, other than we'll have chances. It's just too early to figure that out. ehh, I dont think NNE looks really good either, need to be further north. The SE ridge is probably being underforcasted with the strong -PNA sign in the recent models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the best indicator of a season is snow depth days. Some folks think accumulation numbers make a season, not me. Its winter in its entirety which this year is wretched. But check this out. http://wermenh.com/sdd/index.html Totally agree. Until this year I have had a constant snow pack...even in the crap year of 09-10....starting in December and going until sometime in March or early April. That is what is so whacky and sucky this year....no snowpack at all. It feels weird up here, and not how it is supposed to be. Down there you don't usually have a constant snowpack for 3 months but we do. It's like we are in some version of the twilight zone and the non-weenie local are like "WTF?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 ehh, I dont think NNE looks really good either, need to be further north. The SE ridge is probably being underforcasted with the strong -PNA sign in the recent models. i think you are Kevins evil twin, you are oppo man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Totally agree. Until this year I have had a constant snow pack...even in the crap year of 09-10....starting in December and going until sometime in March or early April. That is what is so whacky and sucky this year....no snowpack at all. It feels weird up here, and not how it is supposed to be. Down there you don't usually have a constant snowpack for 3 months but we do. It's like we are in some version of the twilight zone and the non-weenie local are like "WTF?" I looked at Stowe, the average pack on Jan 4th is 30 inches , this year 26 or so, not bad, although as PF says they have had 50% of normal snow, they are retaining it. Huge torch years lack retention, we need a storm to retain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Still so much wah wah wah! There is change coming, be happy. Wait for the pattern to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Because I think he is..Everything is pointing to it. Modelling,indices, and the pattern. Nothing wrong with voicing my opinion. I'm tired of people tip toeing around what do you mean - what is everything pointing to? i just read don's post, i'm not sure it was that off-base. sounded reasonable and it didn't sound to me like he was saying torch etc. just that overall...don't expect some epic stretch to set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The pattern is changing, but it doesn't necessarily mean prolonged cold and snow for our neck of the woods. Our chances for snow are increased no doubt, but we may straddle the line in terms of wintry precip. I think NNE looks pretty good at the moment, I can't get a feel for SNE right now, other than we'll have chances. It's just too early to figure that out. i just feel like it's too early to have much confidence in anything...other than that we're getting this current regime out of the way. i hope it's a complete 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I just think we are going to see a complete flip from we've had. I think as warm and snowless as its been, the 45 days from Jan 15 - Feb30 are going to be as opposite as can be and folks are going to have no idea what hit them. It is going to quick and drastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I just think we are going to see a complete flip from we've had. I think as warm and snowless as its been, the 45 days from Jan 15 - Feb30 are going to be as opposite as can be and folks are going to have no idea what hit them. It is going to quick and drastic That Feb 30 should be loltastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Kevin, I have no clue why you are going around saying Don S is wrong. Bad tact, considering we haven't even seen a change. I can't say whether Don is going to be right or wrong but his statement that recent runs of the GFS back him up through 1/23 is kind of kooky if you ask me. They do in fact back him up but to say the GFS out to 300 hours is your source of confidence in a forecast is like having to trust Jerry Sandusky to baby sit your little boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 #1 day 11 analog on GEFS is 01/07/80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 #1 day 11 analog on GEFS is 01/07/80 Hee hee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the best indicator of a season is snow depth days. Some folks think accumulation numbers make a season, not me. Its winter in its entirety which this year is wretched. But check this out. http://wermenh.com/sdd/index.html We've actually had snow otg in the yard here since 12/8 with a peak depth of a whopping 4". Currently 3" at the stake. The fact that the ground has been white here for a few weeks has helped my weather-mood greatly. If we didn't have anything on the ground, I'd surely be reaching for the toaster. I only had 5" otg last year on this date.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hee hee! yeah i chucked that for you. LOL those analog years are all over the place so it's kind of a take it fwiw thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I know one thing if we want some prolonged chill and chances of snow we better start laying some snow down across the midwest, lakes and se canada and here closer to home, in marginal setups these putrid airmasses will warm easy over snowless ground to our west. The warmth continues to overperform almost every single time, like yesterday, like today and like the next 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 He's pretty much summed up our worries that we've talked about. In February, you are fighting Nina climo so we'll need the blocking. I have yet to see any signs of a -NAO. I won't need blocking to grab 15" during Feb at this latitude. Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I know one thing if we want some prolonged chill and chances of snow we better start laying some snow down across the midwest, lakes and se canada and here closer to home, in marginal setups these putrid airmasses will warm easy over snowless ground to our west. The warmth continues to overperform almost every single time, like yesterday, like today and like the next 6 days. this I agree with , all systems have been warm side loaded with precip, we need backside snows at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I won't need blocking to grab 15" during Feb at this latitude. Disagree. People are being picky and finicky because of how bad things have been. We aren't going to flip into a pattern where it will be similar to last year all of a sudden. Changes are coming, that will be enough to have snow. First storm will be in the jan 20-25 range for CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 i have mixed emotions here. it's definitely good to see that ridging bumping through the aleutians and into the arctic creating the -wpo/epo pattern. that's the main change to shake things up. but the low heights out west and just persistent pulsing negative anomalies with that vortex over the davis straight and greenland vicinity are a tough combo. i don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Right, Phil..."I don't know"....as in a marginal set up, but at 42*+ of latitude during the dead of winter, you are going to snow in a marginal pattern, albeit probably not at a prolific pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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