Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We can't figure out the next 10 days and you're able to see 55 days into the future? If you go back to November...I think I've got a pretty good track record this winter and will have a couple of free meals to go with it. I'm thinking the cold that comes in is once again temporary and then we have to hope it turns around in February. It's my opinion, but I think there are increasing signs things are going south on the permanent pattern change. In fact I think the odds favor it not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That map is 60 days behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If you go back to November...I think I've got a pretty good track record this winter and will have a couple of free meals to go with it. I'm thinking the cold that comes in is once again temporary and then we have to hope it turns around in February. It's my opinion, but I think there are increasing signs things are going south on the permanent pattern change. In fact I think the odds favor it not happening. Let me know some dates for dinner 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It'ds January f u ce kn 7th for crying out loud! map shows the trajectory pretty well going forward on the GFS...storms just don't have the room to develop until they're far east as they come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Let me know some dates for dinner 1. I'd say let's wait until the first snow event but we should probably do this before the Superbowl.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'd say let's wait until the first snow event but we should probably do this before the Superbowl.... Next week and 2 weeks later work for me. Best nights are W/TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Hello men and women. Winter beckons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If the pattern change fails, let's pull for the futility record t get this bummer done with likely no repeat at least in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 If the pattern change fails, let's pull for the futility record t get this bummer done with likely no repeat at least in my lifetime. I'm liking the plan of snowless through March, then a HECS in early April. Definition bookend winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Here comes the euro...and I'm up dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 If the pattern change fails, let's pull for the futility record t get this bummer done with likely no repeat at least in my lifetime. OT but next two might be tough, will PM. Lots of long nights working and early mornings for the next 3-4 weeks. Have that feeling we're seeing some see-sawing on the period after the change. Weeklies are AOA, looking at the models with a wide angle lens hasn't failed me yet this winter and I just think there's signs we go from this AOA ++ period to brutal cold to something else but not yet what we all want. Don's post and the brutal truth of winters that make it to MLK and beyond on this level of pitiful is tough. Too early to offer anything but an opinion, but with each model run the last few days...and then seeing Don's data tonight. Can kind of see this starting to pop at the end of the runs...again vaguely. Could see a pattern evolve that's different in that we have higher heights out over the east coast/off it towards the end of the month...great if you live in Illionois or MN, not so much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 OT but next two might be tough, will PM. Lots of long nights working and early mornings for the next 3-4 weeks. Have that feeling we're seeing some see-sawing on the period after the change. Weeklies are AOA, looking at the models with a wide angle lens hasn't failed me yet this winter and I just think there's signs we go from this AOA ++ period to brutal cold to something else but not yet what we all want. Don's post and the brutal truth of winters that make it to MLK and beyond on this level of pitiful is tough. Too early to offer anything but an opinion, but with each model run the last few days...and then seeing Don's data tonight. Can kind of see this starting to pop at the end of the runs...again vaguely. Could see a pattern evolve that's different in that we have higher heights out over the east coast/off it towards the end of the month...great if you live in Illionois or MN, not so much here. Ride the horse that got you there. That said, our latitude for the proposed pattern helps. Also, the uncanny ability of the last 5 winters to change it's tune in January sometime or early February gives me some optimism. And the squirrels...lying bastards. Yeah I'm putting in 60 hour weeks during this stretch so pm me. Any excuse to break that with dinner works....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Ride the horse that got you there. That said, our latitude for the proposed pattern helps. Also, the uncanny ability of the last 5 winters to change it's tune in January sometime or early February gives me some optimism. And the squirrels...lying bastards. Yeah I'm putting in 60 hour weeks during this stretch so pm me. Any excuse to break that with dinner works....lol. There's always the chance of an overrunning or OES event too...but I worry about a mean track west of us transpiring later in the month...an old school upper midwest/ OH valley type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That map is 60 days behind. More updated Another map off NOAA: Jerry, as you know, I've been in awe and rooting for the futility record since mid-December... this is seriously off-the-charts anomalous, and as every day passes, increasingly more exciting than the chance of some run-of-the-mill snowstorms. Don's analysis solidifies this for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 More updated Another map off NOAA: Jerry, as you know, I've been in awe and rooting for the futility record since mid-December... this is seriously off-the-charts anomalous, and as every day passes, increasingly more exciting than the chance of some run-of-the-mill snowstorms. Don's analysis solidifies this for me. Same map basically. My point was that the snow cover is more representative of early November vs January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 More updated Another map off NOAA: Jerry, as you know, I've been in awe and rooting for the futility record since mid-December... this is seriously off-the-charts anomalous, and as every day passes, increasingly more exciting than the chance of some run-of-the-mill snowstorms. Don's analysis solidifies this for me. With our luck we'll get 10 inches on 4/16 or something bizarre to kibosh the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 With our luck we'll get 10 inches on 4/16 or something bizarre to kibosh the record. lol, you know it... I'm kind of with Ray on the incredible ability for the mother nature to moon us while holding her middle finger flung through her legs backwards at us. still... halloween + easter > meteorologic winter snowfall would be quite remarkable this record chase has kept me up for the Euro most nights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 hows the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 hows the euro? Cold Friday after the rain. A tad faster with everything it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 vortex over baffin island does not budge on gefs mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 vortex over baffin island does not budge on gefs mean GEFS is cold though to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 EPO....obviously it won't be this intense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro ensembles really are pushing for lower heights over the Canadian Rockies. That's going to help form a big gradient pattern somewhere. They do try to raise heights in the East, like we've been saying with a -PNA. I wish we had some blocking...I'm just not that excited right now..other than we may have some chances. I think it cuts it close for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Don S is not perfect....I remember him promising we NE weenies, who were left out of the Feb madness in the MA, an epic March of 2010. I received .5" on the month. Who knows, maybe he is like the EURO and nails shatty calls, but only busts when it's good. He's pretty much summed up our worries that we've talked about. In February, you are fighting Nina climo so we'll need the blocking. I have yet to see any signs of a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 6z gfs says it gets cold and stormy around here mid month onward! cold first then the storms hope it stays that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro ensembles really are pushing for lower heights over the Canadian Rockies. That's going to help form a big gradient pattern somewhere. They do try to raise heights in the East, like we've been saying with a -PNA. I wish we had some blocking...I'm just not that excited right now..other than we may have some chances. I think it cuts it close for us. Dude you've got to stop with the caution. Everyone else is on board. When Gibbs goes cold and wintry...it means it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Don S is going to be wrong. VEry wrong. Don't forget he struggled mightly last winter and said there would be no KU's. We had 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Dude you've got to stop with the caution. Everyone else is on board. When Gibbs goes cold and wintry...it means it's coming I think every other person on here as said the same thing in some shape or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Dude you've got to stop with the caution. Everyone else is on board. When Gibbs goes cold and wintry...it means it's coming And you're also assuming that I'm saying cutter after cutter. My point is that prolonged cold and snow is not a guarantee by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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