Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 No thanks. So you'd rather have an all rain event rather than an inch of snow followed by 33 degree rain that would be absorbed by the snow? To each their own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 18z GEFS are interesting. They weaken the ridging but sort of retrograde everything. Almost try and pop a weak ridge out west. I just hope the ridging holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 So you'd rather have an all rain event rather than an inch of snow followed by 33 degree rain that would be absorbed by the snow? To each their own LOL, that won't absorb anything. No thanks to an inch of snow followed by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 LOL, that won't absorb anything. No thanks to an inch of snow followed by rain. Funny how some like snow and some LOVE snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Funny how some like snow and some LOVE snow. I love snow. An inch of snow washed away is an awful tease. 6" of snow followed by rain that could be absorbed is entirely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I love snow. An inch of snow washed away is an awful tease. 6" of snow followed by rain that could be absorbed is entirely different. Taste the tip or the whole 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Ack, bad taste... having just been down there at the memorial - a different picture would be more appropriate. Huge apologies to everyone. I accidently mixed up my files and posted the wrong one. Serious fail. Hope the storm in question doesn't fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Huge apologies to everyone. I accidently mixed up my files and posted the wrong one. Serious fail. Hope the storm in question doesn't fail. I dont think there is a person here that ever thought it happened intentionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Taste the tip or the whole 6? Dirty man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 This would be perfect: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think this safe call. No need to fight over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the 18z gfs sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the 18z gfs sucked. It's extreme, but shows you what happens when you are on the wrong side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the 18z gfs sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It's extreme, but shows you what happens when you are on the wrong side of the gradient. Not really putting any stock in it but that would be a disaster verbatim. Lol. There'd be widespread power outages thanks to all the blown fuses and power surges from toasters being dunked in tubs all over the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 You should look at the run...it was fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This pattern has let you down. I need someone to blame for this travesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Not really putting any stock in it but that would be a disaster verbatim. Lol. There'd be widespread power outages thanks to all the blown fuses and power surges from toasters being dunked in tubs all over the nation. We're sort of on the verge of peaking around the corner and seeing how everything plays out. After next weeks disaster plays out, we hopefully will have an idea if this is more prolonged, or if it goes back to being more precarious for us. We just want to make sure that the ensembles don't seem like they are backing off as we inch closer to verification time...ie it's coming to an end. I think like Will said...there is some disagreement still as to what the ridging does. Ensembles seem more out of place than normal..even at hr 360. I think what would put us in a more precarious spot, is if the ridging sort of gets cutoff over the North Pole, and then heights lower to the south causing more zonal flow. I think without a -NAO...it would not be all that great for us as far as sensible wx goes. But, I feel like the EC ensembles could produce if that played out. I did like seeing those. But how long would that last? You almost can't help but have a "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude..lol. Of course you have to eventually believe the data presented to you..but there is that bad feeling that I can't shake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We're sort of on the verge of peaking around the corner and seeing how everything plays out. After next weeks disaster plays out, we hopefully will have an idea if this is more prolonged, or if it goes back to being more precarious for us. We just want to make sure that the ensembles don't seem like they are backing off as we inch closer to verification time...ie it's coming to an end. I think like Will said...there is some disagreement still as to what the ridging does. Ensembles seem more out of place than normal..even at hr 360. I think what would put us in a more precarious spot, is if the ridging sort of gets cutoff over the North Pole, and then heights lower to the south causing more zonal flow. I think without a -NAO...it would not be all that great for us as far as sensible wx goes. But, I feel like the EC ensembles could produce if that played out. I did like seeing those. But how long would that last? You almost can't help but have a "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude..lol. Of course you have to eventually believe the data presented to you..but there is that bad feeling that I can't shake. Funny how it works. When it's good, it feels like any setup will produce. When it's bad, it feels like you need all of the planets to line up to get a measly 1-3 inch event. I'm sure we'll see something soon. Law of averages suggests so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Funny how it works. When it's good, it feels like any setup will produce. When it's bad, it feels like you need all of the planets to line up to get a measly 1-3 inch event. I'm sure we'll see something soon. Law of averages suggests so I know this isn't the most scientific statement, but there is some correlation. It seems like every winter has a theme. Some produce on a dime, others are like pulling teeth. 2007 did turn around, but it still stunk for my area. Hopefully this turns around. I think myself, Will, Ryan, Phil...we're all happy to see this change, but it's just too early to get extremely pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 While our chances here are better (don't take it the wrong way), we do sort of have the same concerns. We can get away without a -NAO, but the ridging in AK, magnitude of troughing out west will determine the gradient. I go back and forth with the good and bad that I see. Lots of good, but some things look shaky to me. The problem is that the "shaky" things determine our outcome. Anything is better than what we've had, and it's an intriguing pattern for this area. I'll take my chances with what I see. honestly, and I'm not saying this beating my chest, but this pattern has us in the same boat that we (in the MA) are used to, though are no satisfied with I suspect the only thing left to go wrong is a huge SE snow storm; and maybe that's what we (MA and NE) deserve after the last 2 winters it would even out the last 3 years and we can go back to the default climo setting starting next year sometimes, you just have to fold your cards and say "wtf", and take one for the snow weenie team otoh, it would be a darn shame that Phili got away with 2 great winters in a row at the MA/NE's expense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Give me a nice guy with a sense of humor oven an elitist jerk every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 honestly, and I'm not saying this beating my chest, but this pattern has us in the same boat that we (in the MA) are used to, though are no satisfied with I suspect the only thing left to go wrong is a huge SE snow storm; and maybe that's what we (MA and NE) deserve after the last 2 winters it would even out the last 3 years and we can go back to the default climo setting starting next year sometimes, you just have to fold your cards and say "wtf", and take one for the snow weenie team otoh, it would be a darn shame that Phili got away with 2 great winters in a row at the MA/NE's expense I have my hopes that we'll have some chances..heck even a 2-4" clipper would be awesome. I think we are all just looking out for disappointment. I'm optimistic on our chances here of something...but not holding out for an epic stretch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I know this isn't the most scientific statement, but there is some correlation. It seems like every winter has a theme. Some produce on a dime, others are like pulling teeth. 2007 did turn around, but it still stunk for my area. Hopefully this turns around. I think myself, Will, Ryan, Phil...we're all happy to see this change, but it's just too early to get extremely pumped. I want to get this inside of 7 days and see a legit threat evolving. Not some needle threader full of ifs and maybes but a real one where regardless of how it unfolds we actually can say with a high degree of certainty that there will be meaningful accumulation for a good chunk of the region. Right now...we are still entirely in speculation mode which is ok...but I don't want to be speculating 2 weeks from now about days 11-15. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The 850mb thermal profile would support big aggregate snow down as far S as EEN for an hour or two, flipping to cold rain. Whatever happens at the sfc during that onset/transition interval, it could be ending as a transition to light zr and grains even as far S as Rt 2; this has been evident on a few of the last several GFS cycles I've seen. I.e., this next more important system could have some touches of winter to it down as far as borders of NH/VT with MA... Central NNE should get a decent snow event out of the blend of the last several cycles. I am not happy enough with ECMWF performance as of late to take it too seriously for the time being. It will also be important to monitor the polar high positively differentiating over central/E Ontario ... it's something we haven't seen yet this year, and that's polar high gaining strength as low pressure approaches. Am noticing however less reflected in the low level temperatures, a tendency for inverted ridging in the isobaric layout up this way as the low is nearing NYC ... sometimes more or less depicted across successive runs. The system has a lot of dynamic potency wound up in a tight ball at mid levels as it turns the corner and heads on up just inside the I-95 corridor - expect odd things. 534DM core over an area almost inside the GFS grid - occasionally detected in the runs. It seems native speed in the southern stream is causing the wave frequency between it and the diving L/W axis eventually in the OV to be slightly out of sync, such that a gem of a phaser has less physical chance of taking place... Down stream blocking would help! Last point of interest for the moment is that both the closed low and the farther upstream dynamics are both situated out over the open Pacific as of the 18z grid and probably that will still be the case on the 00z as well. We all know that assimilation is something to be cautiously grateful for having... That said, should the more dynamic potency with either in varying degrees or less respective of one another would certainly effect how they interact interact, whether more or less directly, downstream of the eastern U.S. I know it is hard to maintain an objective vigil considering the road we've come - it seems "can't be winter" somehow precedes our cause here - but I see dramatic changeability over the next week. Lots to be interested in! John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 BOX with a well done disco on this... MDLS HAVE FLOPPED BACK TO AN INSIDE RUNNER SYS FOR THE PERIOD AND ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EXCEPT FOR ONE TINY CAVEAT...THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS MORN...ECMWF THURS NGT. MORE IMPORTANTLY WHAT IS ASTONISHING IS THAT THE STORM STRUCTURE AND CHARACTERISTICS ARE REMINISCENT OF THE STORM A FEW WEEKS AGO ON DECEMBER 27TH 2011. IN BREVITY...FOR THE FCST HAVE BLENDED THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF SOLNS. BANKING ON A DEEPENING SFC LOW THRU THE RGN THURS TO 990-985 MB THANKS TO A NEG TILTING TROF AXIS COUPLED WITH STRONG ATTENDANT SHRTWV AND H3 JET AXIS ROTATING THRU THE TROF PROVIDING DEEP LYR LIFT. WILL SEE H925 ACCELERATE TO 50-60 MPH OUT OF THE SE ALONG THE E/SE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BACKING OUT OF THE NW WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AND LIFT OUT OF THE PD. S/SE GUSTS LIKELY AT THE SFC OF 40 MPH /SUSTAINED 25 TO 30 MPH/ THANKS IN PART TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND PRECIP DRAG OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SFC. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT...EXPECT NW WINDS AND GOOD LLVL LAPSE RATES WITH CAA ALOFT TO PROMOTE GUSTS OF 35 MPH ON THE BACKSIDE /SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 MPH/. LIKE DEC 27TH...COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PD OF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND E MA COASTAL PLAINS WITH GALE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. NOT SEEING COASTAL FLOODING AS AN ISSUE. SYS WORKS THRU QUICKLY...AND ALTHO HEAVY RAINS A POSSIBILITY...NOT THINKING FLOOD POTENTIAL. CHC POPS WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE WITH 2M MDL TEMPS/DWPTS OVER MOS GUIDE. IF DEC 27TH WAS ANY INDICATION...THE S/E SHORES SAW A WARMING TREND THRU THE EVNG AND NEAR 60 DEGREE TEMPS. THE VIGOROUS SYS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I like Tip's observations. I was thinking without the meteorological background that this situation looks like it has the potential to turn colder. I wouldn't expect it but wouldn't be surprised. There is a pattern change evolving and that messes with model performance...and this is a bad performing model season. Alot of time between now and Wednesday. At some point we will get a break and I would almost expect it to happen as a bit of a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I like Tip's observations. I was thinking without the meteorological background that this situation looks like it has the potential to turn colder. I wouldn't expect it but wouldn't be surprised. There is a pattern change evolving and that messes with model performance...and this is a bad performing model season. Alot of time between now and Wednesday. At some point we will get a break and I would almost expect it to happen as a bit of a surprise. Your optimism is infectious, all of our xmas decorations are long gone however, I told my wife the tree will remain up until we get a snowstorm. So the only thing left on the tree are white lights, its subtle but nice to have in the home. I hope you get snow sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We took down the tree last weekend. We just haul it out back into the woods. Most years that involves going through snow, sometimes deep snow. This year I was more worried about ticks than flakes But it does have to turn...sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Your optimism is infectious, all of our xmas decorations are long gone however, I told my wife the tree will remain up until we get a snowstorm. So the only thing left on the tree are white lights, its subtle but nice to have in the home. I hope you get snow sooner rather than later. Hope its artificial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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