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Next week's major storm and beyond


OKpowdah

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Where did you find the 19%?

Here's some info on snowcover...

Source (and full table):

http://climate.rutge...ea.php?ui_set=1

Maybe the US deviation is muted by the large Canadian area, and this obviously does not reflect depth.

Some notables from N. American snow cover:

Dec 2011: 16.06 million km2

Dec 2010: 17.66 million km2

Dec 2006: 16.21 million km2

Dec 1993: 15.93 million km2

Saw it on the evening news yesterday. Their numbers (from NOAA, IIRC) were 19% of 48-state area, compared to 46% last year same time. I've no idea what the norms are.

Interesting data on the link you provided - shows just how awful 79-80 (and 80-81) were.

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Saw it on the evening news yesterday. Their numbers (from NOAA, IIRC) were 19% of 48-state area, compared to 46% last year same time. I've no idea what the norms are.

Interesting data on the link you provided - shows just how awful 79-80 (and 80-81) were.

Here it is (NOAA source):

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=National&year=2012&month=1&day=6&units=e

Lower 48 states % Snow cover as of Jan 6:

2012: 16.3%

2011: 44.9%

2010: 56.0%

2009: 41.8%

2008: 34.6%

2007: 27.7%

2006: 26.6%

2005: 54.6%

2004: 40.3%

As I said earlier, the Rutgers data is for N. America and deviations in the US are muted by Canadian snow cover... the 19% for lower 48 is much more reflective of what we all know this season.

And 16.3% far lower than the 2006-2007 season. Hallowed ground.

Too bad it only goes back to 2004.

5th inning, lower part of the order this and next week...

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The warming at 50mb on the euro ensembles gets more and more impressive. I now see a +22C anomaly contour on the nw tip of Greenland. This was 18C a few days ago. This second wave will hopefully downwell and help give us some good blocking in February. Notice I said hopefully, because I couldn't say when..but I would think such a strong + anomaly like that will at least make its way down through conduction. Hopefully events like MT later in the month help out.

The stratospheric warming is progged to be impressive over the next 10 days. A series of strong mountain torques have helped raise the AAM and we're now seeing the PV dislodged.

I'm not sure how future MT events or rises in the AAM state would impact blocking down the road... or downwelling warm anomalies... I just don't know. Not my area of expertise.

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Here it is (NOAA source):

http://www.nohrsc.no...1&day=6&units=e

Lower 48 states % Snow cover as of Jan 6:

2012: 16.3%

2011: 44.9%

2010: 56.0%

2009: 41.8%

2008: 34.6%

2007: 27.7%

2006: 26.6%

2005: 54.6%

2004: 40.3%

As I said earlier, the Rutgers data is for N. America and deviations in the US are muted by Canadian snow cover... the 19% for lower 48 is much more reflective of what we all know this season.

And 16.3% far lower than the 2006-2007 season. Hallowed ground.

Too bad it only goes back to 2004.

5th inning, lower part of the order this and next week...

brutal

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The stratospheric warming is progged to be impressive over the next 10 days. A series of strong mountain torques have helped raise the AAM and we're now seeing the PV dislodged.

I'm not sure how future MT events or rises in the AAM state would impact blocking down the road... or downwelling warm anomalies... I just don't know. Not my area of expertise.

6 week epicness incoming

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The stratospheric warming is progged to be impressive over the next 10 days. A series of strong mountain torques have helped raise the AAM and we're now seeing the PV dislodged.

I'm not sure how future MT events or rises in the AAM state would impact blocking down the road... or downwelling warm anomalies... I just don't know. Not my area of expertise.

Me neither.

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I think I still side with a -PNA coming up in the later part of the month. It even seemed like the GEFS were in sync with this. My guess is that a ridge in the Aleutians with no real -NAO would help with that configuration. But how strong, that's another story. We still could ride the line with that.

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I think I still side with a -PNA coming up in the later part of the month. It even seemed like the GEFS were in sync with this. My guess is that a ridge in the Aleutians with no real -NAO would help with that configuration. But how strong, that's another story. We still could ride the line with that.

I think the best description for this pattern change coming up is going from "Horrific" to "giving us a chance"...not going from horrific to epic.

Maybe in February if we can get some Atlantic side cooperation, we can try and make it epic for a stretch, but this Jan 15-30 time period I see has "at least we have a shot"...it certainly could end up pretty good if we get a parade of storms where we are just far enough north, but its difficult to actually forecast that, because the details are what will make or break that pattern.

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I think the best description for this pattern change coming up is going from "Horrific" to "giving us a chance"...not going from horrific to epic.

Maybe in February if we can get some Atlantic side cooperation, we can try and make it epic for a stretch, but this Jan 15-30 time period I see has "at least we have a shot"...it certainly could end up pretty good if we get a parade of storms where we are just far enough north, but its difficult to actually forecast that, because the details are what will make or break that pattern.

I think we all feel that way. Some may be more giddy than others, but I'd like to see another week of this. Even though the GEFS are more suppressed with the cold and storm track, you can see on the mass fields of both, especially EC how lows want to come out of the central and even nrn Rockies and move east. That to me, spells gradient...IF they work out like that.

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I think the best description for this pattern change coming up is going from "Horrific" to "giving us a chance"...not going from horrific to epic.

Maybe in February if we can get some Atlantic side cooperation, we can try and make it epic for a stretch, but this Jan 15-30 time period I see has "at least we have a shot"...it certainly could end up pretty good if we get a parade of storms where we are just far enough north, but its difficult to actually forecast that, because the details are what will make or break that pattern.

To me it's going from nearly impossible to get snow to it could snow. Kind of like awful to normal for winter. Some good systems, some bad, maybe all or either but like you say, there are chances.

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I think we all feel that way. Some may be more giddy than others, but I'd like to see another week of this. Even though the GEFS are more suppressed with the cold and storm track, you can see on the mass fields of both, especially EC how lows want to come out of the central and even nrn Rockies and move east. That to me, spells gradient...IF they work out like that.

I don"t know about giddiness but we will soon see how the AO state changes the whole ball of wax. Blocking is coming back.

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I don"t know about giddiness but we will soon see how the AO state changes the whole ball of wax. Blocking is coming back.

Well, it might wax and wane. I just don't see any epic-ness in the near future, but maybe the pattern works out...I don't know. I think there are questions as to the extent of the blocking. You can say the AO is negative all you want, but you have to look at the 500mb pattern. Indices don't tell you the details that looking at the 500mb pattern tells you. My question is ( and I think others feel the same) is how strong and how long does the blocking last. We could go back to lower heights in AK again. I don't think once we get blocking up there, there is no turning back. I think it is possible to go back somewhat, unless we have some crazy downwelling of the warmth. For now, I think the biggest worry is where the gradient sets up. Just because we have the gradient, doesn't mean 2007-2008 is on the way. At least I can't make that call....maybe someone else can.

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Well, it might wax and wane. I just don't see any epic-ness in the near future, but maybe the pattern works out...I don't know. I think there are questions as to the extent of the blocking. You can say the AO is negative all you want, but you have to look at the 500mb pattern. Indices don't tell you the details that looking at the 500mb pattern tells you. My question is ( and I think others feel the same) is how strong and how long does the blocking last. We could go back to lower heights in AK again. I don't think once we get blocking up there, there is no turning back. I think it is possible to go back somewhat, unless we have some crazy downwelling of the warmth. For now, I think the biggest worry is where the gradient sets up. Just because we have the gradient, doesn't mean 2007-2008 is on the way. At least I can't make that call....maybe someone else can.

i understand your thought pattern totally. You have explained your reasons very well.

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Seems like 2 very real and legit wintry precip threats..One the 16th and one the 21st. Maybe the first is our icestorm we all think is coming?

I wouldn't hold out on the 16th, but maybe it's ice for the Pike north.

LOL, in all seriousness, that one has a lot of questions. We may have to take a hit with that.

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MJO forecasts are all over the place as well.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Even though the actual difference in magnitude may not be huge, any little tendency for the MJO to head into phase 4 may try to enhance the se ridge a bit. Hopefully it stays more into the COD for a while.

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looks like he's selling tickets on the Titanic's return voyage

While our chances here are better (don't take it the wrong way), we do sort of have the same concerns. We can get away without a -NAO, but the ridging in AK, magnitude of troughing out west will determine the gradient. I go back and forth with the good and bad that I see. Lots of good, but some things look shaky to me. The problem is that the "shaky" things determine our outcome. Anything is better than what we've had, and it's an intriguing pattern for this area. I'll take my chances with what I see.

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