CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Fair enough. But that's the point..You've mentioned that MLK threat maybe in one post..but have dedicated many to how you think it will be cold and dry. All we are asking for is you to cut down on the constant worst case scenarios and offer up some more hopeful uplifting posts. Being gloomy is no way to go thru life. He's being objective and frankly we all are. Why throw out tons of positives when things can go wrong? I do that every day, evaluating pros and cons. Yes as a whole it looks up, but there are still details to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Fair enough. But that's the point..You've mentioned that MLK threat maybe in one post..but have dedicated many to how you think it will be cold and dry. All we are asking for is you to cut down on the constant worst case scenarios and offer up some more hopeful uplifting posts. Being gloomy is no way to go thru life. Well there's not a whole lot you can post about the pattern now other than it looks cold. The MLK threat is still 10 days away. We'll see what happens but right now it's hard to get overly excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Fair enough. But that's the point..You've mentioned that MLK threat maybe in one post..but have dedicated many to how you think it will be cold and dry. All we are asking for is you to cut down on the constant worst case scenarios and offer up some more hopeful uplifting posts. Being gloomy is no way to go thru life. we? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 He's being objective and frankly we all are. Why throw out tons of positives when things can go wrong? I do that every day, evaluating pros and cons. Yes as a whole it looks up, but there are still details to be worked out. Just different philosophies I guess. I 'm just not one to look for negatives. No biggie. I look for what can go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just different philosophies I guess. I 'm just not one to look for negatives. No biggie. I look for what can go right. As WOTY...you lead by example... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I remember the days when these types of posts from you used to make me irate...now I just wave them off This thread is for discussion of the threat, if you want to talk about your feelings on how Ryan's negativity makes you feel blue, use the banter thread. Next weeks storm is most likely going to be a flood for the majority of us. That's just the way it is. We can talk about the snow in Canada from it? After it passes it gets very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 We had a trace of snow in November and December of 2006, then the first measureable was 0.6" on 1/19/07. Valentines Day was a sleety frozen mess and the St Patricks day (mainly 3/16) sleetfest was by far the best storm of the winter. We only had 11.7" for the entire winter. As far as I'm concerned, everything from a huge turnaround to a nearly snowless winter is still on the table but you have to weight the snowless side of things more heavily at this point. Stuff happens; it even happened during the little ice age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well there's not a whole lot you can post about the pattern now other than it looks cold. The MLK threat is still 10 days away. We'll see what happens but right now it's hard to get overly excited. i think the only thing we can take away from what's being seen right now is that we're gradually switching modes...from one that was extraordinarily difficult to produce snow chances to one that is at least more favorable. but that only means so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 i think the only thing we can take away from what's being seen right now is that we're gradually switching modes...from one that was extraordinarily difficult to produce snow chances to one that is at least more favorable. but that only means so much. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I can't take this forum anymore but I can't look away. I need a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Last two pages should really be in the banter thread FWIW. New GGEM doesn't look very promising...I'm thinking this is a bit far west for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just different philosophies I guess. I 'm just not one to look for negatives. No biggie. I look for what can go right. We are going to need an interesting balance of things to make this a cold and wet pattern. I can't tell if that will happen. I want to say the PNA may be negative enough for storms, but I don't know. There are also things that could also argue for Miller B's so I go back and forth. However, it's useless to wrestle with specifics, since the dam thing hasn't happened yet. I just like to go over scenarios in my head, and see which ones make sense. I'm just happy to see a change to increasec chances, like Phil noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I can't take this forum anymore but I can't look away. I need a beer. bruthahs from anuthah mothah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Forget next week. It's rain for many. Don't even waste your energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 As WOTY...you lead by example... Deep down he relishes the title but he brushes it off and make no mention of it when anyone comments, But reading his post all the time you can see why he was deserving of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Last two pages should really be in the banter thread FWIW. New GGEM doesn't look very promising...I'm thinking this is a bit far west for many of us. Scott, this threat has been dead for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Deep down he relishes the title but he brushes it off and make no mention of it when anyone comments, But reading his post all the time you can see why he was deserving of it I think he's actually mortified by it. Next question is going to be how long does this pattern change stick around for? So we finally tank the AO as the PV gets exploded over the Pole... but how long does it last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think he's actually mortified by it. Next question is going to be how long does this pattern change stick around for? So we finally tank the AO as the PV gets exploded over the Pole... but how long does it last? Hopefully a while.. I'm starting to get really nervous about the ski resorts Jay, how does it feel knowing you wont see a significant snow event? Must suck.. Oh and next Saturday looks cold for patriots. Probably bad news there as they will play a stout D 34/0.0" new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Fair enough. But that's the point..You've mentioned that MLK threat maybe in one post..but have dedicated many to how you think it will be cold and dry. All we are asking for is you to cut down on the constant worst case scenarios and offer up some more hopeful uplifting posts. Being gloomy is no way to go thru life. I like Ryan's "Worst case scenario" angle. Always a sensible way to approach an evolving pattern. Cold and dry is very much on the table here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 GEFS don't look bad. They backed off a bit on the cold. Lowered heights out west a bit. PV in HUdson Bay too. I think as long as the PV is in that area, it will send s/w's across the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 GEFS don't look bad. They backed off a bit on the cold. Lowered heights out west a bit. PV in HUdson Bay too. I think as long as the PV is in that area, it will send s/w's across the US. I'm not going to be picky with that location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I like Ryan's "Worst case scenario" angle. Always a sensible way to approach an evolving pattern. Cold and dry is very much on the table here. Ski resorts would gladly take cold and dry over the alternative. It kills places without snowmaking but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think he's actually mortified by it. Next question is going to be how long does this pattern change stick around for? So we finally tank the AO as the PV gets exploded over the Pole... but how long does it last? Shouldn't be, I would think he has thicker skin then that, But i agree with your thoughts going forward, That is the million dollar question is it just a transient pattern change or does it end up long term and do we see it favoring our region, I am not sold yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 With the PNA trying to go positive and the PV near Hudson Bay, you can see how the Miller B threat is possible as s/w's round the bend into the eastern US. However, they try to lower heights again near AK. We still don't know if this pattern is long lasting. Another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 With the PNA trying to go positive and the PV near Hudson Bay, you can see how the Miller B threat is possible as s/w's round the bend into the eastern US. However, they try to lower heights again near AK. We still don't know if this pattern is long lasting. Another question. i felt the op was kinda ugly toward the end just in general up north...but it was just the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 With the PNA trying to go positive and the PV near Hudson Bay, you can see how the Miller B threat is possible as s/w's round the bend into the eastern US. However, they try to lower heights again near AK. We still don't know if this pattern is long lasting. Another question. The GFS ensembles are simply retrograding the high anomaly. The problem is: the next wave going up in the stratosphere will be affecting things by that point again. Anyone who thinks the pattern next week is like what it has been is kidding themselves. Winter storm threats for sure 1/12-14 and 1/20-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 i felt the op was kinda ugly toward the end just in general up north...but it was just the op. Even the euro ensembles slowly weaken the ridge too, but leave a cutoff type ridge in the North Pole area. That will depend on warming from above I think or at least the warming may have a say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's going to get cold. Awesome. For most sane people cold without snow sucks. Hopefully the pattern will result in a few storm chances. If you've read my posts I've been talking about a storm threat around D10 (MLK day) as a secondary push of cold air comes in. After that I think it's important to look at how the pattern gets cold. If it's a tanked -AO with a +PNA I fear the first week will be a bit dull. The cold is great Ryan. Snowmaking and ice fishing are just two reasons why.Some people should probably live in Florida and just visit the north when there is fluffy snow.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The cold is great Ryan. Snowmaking and ice fishing are just two reasons why.Some people should probably live in Florida and just visit the north when there is fluffy snow.lol At this point I think we all need natural snow. I'm all for cold up north for the ski areas but don't need it down here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The GFS ensembles are simply retrograding the high anomaly. The problem is: the next wave going up in the stratosphere will be affecting things by that point again. Anyone who thinks the pattern next week is like what it has been is kidding themselves. Winter storm threats for sure 1/12-14 and 1/20-23. Yes and no I guess. I see that as well, but they also weaken it. Euro ensembles retro it ever so slightly too. However it's an ensemble mean so naturally the signal dampens, and those anomalies will wax and wane obviosly. And yeah the next wave of warming will be working at it...or working on down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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