CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Probably a dumb question, but is there such thing as being too far north in a gradient pattern to where storms start becoming suppressed ? Or is it, "if your above the battleground you'll be fine" You can always be too far north. If it is something with a stalled front or mean stormtrack off the Virginia Capes, then that wouldn't be good for NNE. However, I'm not really worried about that right now. Lets just get this within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 ?? I don't think we're seeing a major pattern change to cold and snowy. I think we're seeing a change away from torch to somewhat above as we are on the wrong side of the gradient in SNE most of the time. I think after a paticularly robust cold push we'll start to warm again after the 20th-ish. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I don't think we're seeing a major pattern change to cold and snowy. I think we're seeing a change away from torch to somewhat above as we are on the wrong side of the gradient in SNE most of the time. I think after a paticularly robust cold push we'll start to warm again after the 20th-ish. Just my guess. Well the fear is the wrong side of the gradient, and we easily may have a messy storm, but I'm not ready to go that pessimistic here at the moment. I also wouldn't say cold and snowy at the moment...just that we'll have some chances. I don't think you can say more this far out. Lets see this in a week. So far, the models are agreeing which is a good sign. Also, even in patterns that went colder and snowier...we always had inside runners so that wouldn't be all that horrible. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I don't think we're seeing a major pattern change to cold and snowy. I think we're seeing a change away from torch to somewhat above as we are on the wrong side of the gradient in SNE most of the time. I think after a paticularly robust cold push we'll start to warm again after the 20th-ish. Just my guess. I'm simply shocked that you of all people are calling for another torch. Will wonders never cease? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well as long as the coop has been the same for the past 30 years, its useful to compare to climo...i.e they use the same measuring techniques. Mt. Washington is the same way...they "average" 260 inches of snow per year, but if there was a way to collect it accurately, then it would probably be like 400+" per year...but since there isn't a way to do it and it all blows into Tuckerman's, we only have what is recorded. It looks like the average to date is around 88" for Mt. Mansfield coop...and they are around half that on the listed values. Thank you, I have been saying that for years about Mount Washington. I am not convinced the greens get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well....having worked 12 hours, and now having a scotch straight up....warm/cold I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well....having worked 12 hours, and now having a scotch straight up....warm/cold I'm happy. Nice! 13 hour shift myself today, although 3 hours were sitting in the lodge at Wachusett....no scotch for me This is going to be tough to wait out. The clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Nice! 13 hour shift myself today, although 3 hours were sitting in the lodge at Wachusett....no scotch for me This is going to be tough to wait out. The clock is ticking. Drink to the pattern change. If it fails you won't know the difference.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Drink to the pattern change. If it fails you won't know the difference.... I ate a creme horn instead. Yum I wish it would be a sudden change, one that blows in on the vanguard of a deep ,vicious, brutal 8 week stretch that makes people forget the words "torch", "Alaskan vortex" ,"SSW", and "transient" Alas, it will be slow, but hopefully not muted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Katodog says world ends by 2019. Lets get these threats to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Drink to the pattern change. If it fails you won't know the difference.... Its best to go when you don't know what hit you..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Nice rack...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 From an American model none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Tracks that upper low beautifully south of Long Island. Too bad there's no blocking to be seen to reinforce cold air. Nonetheless, continued consensus for a major storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Tracks that upper low beautifully south of Long Island. Too bad there's no blocking to be seen to reinforce cold air. Nonetheless, continued consensus for a major storm next week My intuition tells me that it will blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 My intuition tells me that it will blow. Depends on your expectations. I'm expecting zero snow. If I get some torrential rain and driving winds with heavy heavy CAA on the backside, I'll be pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 So where's the snowfall gradient this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I ilve south of Dryslot, but we've not had numerous snow events. Look at my sig. 15" whopping inches this year. BFD. We're all hurting, except PF. 12 inches in montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thank you, I have been saying that for years about Mount Washington. I am not convinced the greens get more snow. That's an interesting topic Matt; I figured responding would be a bit OT here, but I added a few comments in the ski thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 BY THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR AND TRACK A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE BOTH HAVE A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BOTH KEEP THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF PHASE. SEVERAL OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A FEW PAST OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE PHASED THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH A STRONG GREAT LAKES CUTTER MOVING UP TO OUR WEST. AT THIS TIME FRAME MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIP AROUND ON A POSSIBLE PHASED SOLUTION GIVEN THAT JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN TIMING...PLACEMENT OR AMPLITUDE OF EITHER WAVE WILL PRODUCE BIGGER AND BIGGER CHANGES MOVING FORWARD IN TIME. IN EITHER CASE...PHASED OR UNPHASED...THE MAJOR WARM-UP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL ENSURE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE FAR SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALLOWING IT TO CAPTURE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT THE FAST MOVEMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR ARRIVING AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO AT OR EVEN BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE RAIN...WITH PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END. IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3 WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. Thoughts from BUF...don't really agree with the end there because it neglects significant changes to the EPO...but always good to get a different perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 LOL at 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 LOL at 06z GFS. If its regarding the event at 78-96 hours the Canadian did show the same thing on its run at 00z. The 00Z GFS ensembles though had only 1 member supporting that idea. The Canadian had only 4 of 23 ensembles showing anything near the Op run, nevertheless there is a chance I think of something in that period though it would likely be more for NJ/NYC/CT than MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This is a prime example as to why the GFS should be discarded and not used..It's advertsing the chance of s snow/.ice storm for SNE next week when every other piece of guidance give a driving , warm rainstorm to the Canadian border. Yet people still use it to make forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This is a prime example as to why the GFS should be discarded and not used..It's advertsing the chance of s snow/.ice storm for SNE next week when every other piece of guidance give a driving , warm rainstorm to the Canadian border. Yet people still use it to make forecasts It's not advertising anything other than a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's not advertising anything other than a rainstorm. It's got a snow event next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's got a snow event next week Not for here, but more to the south. They may get some snow in those areas that snowgoose mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's got a snow event next week Flurries at 90 hours on the vaunted 6z?.....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This is a prime example as to why the GFS should be discarded and not used..It's advertsing the chance of s snow/.ice storm for SNE next week when every other piece of guidance give a driving , warm rainstorm to the Canadian border. Yet people still use it to make forecasts Kevin, this posts implies that the GFS is advertising a snow/ice event for the big low next week. Not true. I know in your response you seemed to imply the deal around 90 hours....but the above quoted post implies otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Flurries at 90 hours on the vaunted 6z?.....lol... The 12Z NAM is gonna come in with a disabled version of 12/5/02, book it.....the reason I say that is because the NAM loves overamplifying things late on its runs, and its 00Z run appeared headed in that direction somewhat at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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