Lava Rock Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 October snows do not count for winter as far as what we've had..only for seasonal totals. You guys have had numerous small events that we haven't. I ilve south of Dryslot, but we've not had numerous snow events. Look at my sig. 15" whopping inches this year. BFD. We're all hurting, except PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 When does the arctic front come thru? It's Thursday right? Bump again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wait...so 10/29 doesn't count, but 11/23 does? November isn't exactly the month when winter is supposed to clench its firm hold on the region. November snows are winter snows..October snows are anomolous. There's a reason why there's only been 3 or 4 at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Who cares about NNE? They've had snow..It's our turn I'm doing anything I can to send it your way man. I really hope one of these clocks SNE to get this forum back in shape. I was just responding tongue in cheek to the jab that this all melts in next week's rainstorm And yes, we are all in this together... its New England. We are a band of brothers, except snowNH who apparently is on an island by himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm doing anything I can to send it your way man. I really hope one of these clocks SNE to get this forum back in shape. I was just responding tongue in cheek to the jab that this all melts in next week's rainstorm And yes, we are all in this together... its New England. We are a band of brothers, except snowNH who apparently is on an island by himself. Wanking to the Goofus? Not the 18Z...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Those are weenie algorithms in marginal situations anyways. Yeah that was my bad, too. I just loop those things to see where the ECM is targeting for snowfall. Don't really add them up or put any stock in the actual numbers, just figure you can get a sense as to where the model shows snow. Looking at it on E-Wall and Plymouth it looks warm and rainy. Maybe some mix at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 heh, nice 18z solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Weeklies caved a little. They have some ridging into parts of NRN AK and the North Pole, but cold anomalies in sw Canada give rise to weak ridging in the east. They did weaken those + anomalies by a good amount on week 3. Pardon me for asking but do they show for my region in SONT? It seems as though the weeklies featured a moderate Aleutian Ridge, -PNA/-EPO pattern? Perhaps amplified jet stream, leading to a gradient pattern? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 18Z GFS goes Euro. SnowNH's king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I ilve south of Dryslot, but we've not had numerous snow events. Look at my sig. 15" whopping inches this year. BFD. We're all hurting, except PF. Winter has not been epic up here by any means, lol. Its been just as far below average as it has been for the guys further south. I'm sure the seasonal snowfall totals right now (including October because yes, its a snowstorm and we got nothing out of it) look about the same as a percentage of normal. We just have a much higher average locally here, but we are still like 30-40% of normal to date. It took us many, many nickel and dime events even to just catch up to the guys that got nailed in October... the difference is our snowfall is coming now in small doses, not one big 12-30" dump before Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Winter has not been epic up here by any means, lol. Its been just as far below average as it has been for the guys further south. I'm sure the seasonal snowfall totals right now (including October because yes, its a snowstorm and we got nothing out of it) look about the same as a percentage of normal. We just have a much higher average locally here, but we are still like 30-40% of normal to date. It took us many, many nickel and dime events even to just catch up to the guys that got nailed in October... the difference is our snowfall is coming now in small doses, not one big 12-30" dump before Halloween. the other difference is yours is falling and staying as it is winter, but seriously how are you 30-40% of normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 18Z GFS goes Euro. SnowNH's king. ...and both models will change at least 10 more times before settling on a solution, so it's folly even to try to suggest superiority for one or the other at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 the other difference is yours is falling and staying as it is winter, but seriously how are you 30-40% of normal? They got like nothing up there until latter December pretty much...IIRC they had one around Dec 8-10. And looking at the Mt. Mansfield coop data, their largest event is 6.0"...3.0" on the 25th and 3.0" on the 26th of December. For them not to have a double digit event yet is pretty rare I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 NCEP is so slow now its useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 FTW This winter thus far has clearly proven, in no uncertain terms, that we are NOT dealing with your typical Nina progression temp wise. If we were, most of us would be sitting here with pretty decent winter outlooks up to this point. We have a few important factors arguing in support of a cold second half of winter: 1) The timing of the strong vortex/+AO event, early November through early January, is such that a continuation of the +AO regime is unlikely to occur. 2) Winds are switching easterly down to 45-50mb now, as the QBO shifts negative, and -QBO events are more supportive of the second half of the winter being blocky in the high latitudes as opposed to the first half, 3) Somewhat tying into #2, but the ongoing stratospheric warming will only be encouraged to propagate downward given the more conducive QBO modality evolving; we're already seeing indications of a perturbed tropospheric vortex, and its complete destruction is probable to occur given an intensifying strat warming event, 4) The Nina event is one that should continue to be hold > -1.0c in all ENSO regions, and may weaken even further over the next couple months if modelling is accurate. Since we do not have a moderate or strong Nina, it's going to be much easier to override the usual climo signature of warm East-Central / cold West for February. 5) The fall in solar values over the past month also bolsters the arguement for a more blocky second half of the winter All in all, it depends how quickly the January pattern change evolves, but it wouldn't surprise me, in fact at this point I'd expect February to be the coldest month relative to normal in the Eastern US. The second half of January should be much colder / more wintry nationwide, but I think February has a chance to be front to end colder than normal for much of the northern tier. We'll see how it plays out, but this winter is going to be a very interesting case study. Definitely one of the more difficult winters to forecast long range wise in several years, IMO at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 They got like nothing up there until latter December pretty much...IIRC they had one around Dec 8-10. And looking at the Mt. Mansfield coop data, their largest event is 6.0"...3.0" on the 25th and 3.0" on the 26th of December. For them not to have a double digit event yet is pretty rare I would think. Yeah here in town we didn't really get snow until a few days before Christmas. Then we had that nice Christmas event where we got over 7" in town. Everything forgets that we were bare most of December, too. The Co-Op at the top is nice to compare to other years but their snowfall is woefully low. Greg Hanson from WFO BTV and I were talking about this on the phone today and they all know that the snowfall numbers can be atrocious because of the set-up. Its a standard 8-inch rain gage on top of rock on the windy ridge and the Co-Op only measures what falls into that 8" can. The "NEW" snowfall does not come from the same location as the Mansfield snow stake which has always boggled my mind why you put one measuring device in a nice sheltered location that isn't wind-swept, then put the other measuring device up on barren rock where flakes fall sideways not down. They just continue to do it that way because no one wants to change it and its been done like that for 50+ years. So take those actual snowfall numbers with a grain of salt. If there is no wind then it can be quite accurate, but if there is wind, forget about it. It probably records around 65-75% of actual snowfall just because of the collection method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS runs every 6 hours are like boxes of chocolate...you never know what you're going to get.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah here in town we didn't really get snow until a few days before Christmas. Then we had that nice Christmas event where we got over 7" in town. Everything forgets that we were bare most of December, too. The Co-Op at the top is nice to compare to other years but their snowfall is woefully low. Greg Hanson from WFO BTV and I were talking about this on the phone today and they all know that the snowfall numbers can be atrocious because of the set-up. Its a standard 8-inch rain gage on top of rock on the windy ridge and the Co-Op only measures what falls into that 8" can. The "NEW" snowfall does not come from the same location as the Mansfield snow stake which has always boggled my mind why you put one measuring device in a nice sheltered location that isn't wind-swept, then put the other measuring device up on barren rock where flakes fall sideways not down. They just continue to do it that way because no one wants to change it and its been done like that for 50+ years. So take those actual snowfall numbers with a grain of salt. If there is no wind then it can be quite accurate, but if there is wind, forget about it. It probably records around 65-75% of actual snowfall just because of the collection method. Well as long as the coop has been the same for the past 30 years, its useful to compare to climo...i.e they use the same measuring techniques. Mt. Washington is the same way...they "average" 260 inches of snow per year, but if there was a way to collect it accurately, then it would probably be like 400+" per year...but since there isn't a way to do it and it all blows into Tuckerman's, we only have what is recorded. It looks like the average to date is around 88" for Mt. Mansfield coop...and they are around half that on the listed values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 NCEP is so slow now its useless Yeah... I don't use it anymore. Use InstantWeatherMaps, PSU eWall, or RaleighWX (two of which have NCEP-like maps... PSU doesn't but it has 4-panels which is a plus... something looks off about RaleighWX NCEP-clone maps though, no matter how much I try to think otherwise); or buy Instant Weather Maps Pro or WeatherGeek Pro (both of which use the real NCEP imagery but with a mobile-optimized user interface... right now IWXM Pro gets my vote by far though... the only thing WxGeek has going for it that they don't is MOS tables... I think I'd rather have the complete map selection and more animation control that IWXM has... plus they have a free version with 00Z GFS maps from North America so you can try it out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 the other difference is yours is falling and staying as it is winter, but seriously how are you 30-40% of normal? Alright maybe its more like 50%... summit snow board has had 61" of snow so far this season, and normally after the first week in January we'd have seen ~125" to date, with the 14-year average of 325" total at the end of the season. We had no snow in October and nothing in November except for 9" on Thanksgiving, then nothing in December until the week before Christmas. That's very rare for these mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah... I don't use it anymore. Use InstantWeatherMaps, PSU eWall, or RaleighWX (two of which have NCEP-like maps... PSU doesn't but it has 4-panels which is a plus... something looks off about RaleighWX NCEP-clone maps though, no matter how much I try to think otherwise); or buy Instant Weather Maps Pro or WeatherGeek Pro (both of which use the real NCEP imagery but with a mobile-optimized user interface... right now IWXM Pro gets my vote by far though... the only thing WxGeek has going for it that they don't is MOS tables... I think I'd rather have the complete map selection and more animation control that IWXM has... plus they have a free version with 00Z GFS maps from North America so you can try it out). You're coy with the passive, indirect advertising. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well as long as the coop has been the same for the past 30 years, its useful to compare to climo...i.e they use the same measuring techniques. Mt. Washington is the same way...they "average" 260 inches of snow per year, but if there was a way to collect it accurately, then it would probably be like 400+" per year...but since there isn't a way to do it and it all blows into Tuckerman's, we only have what is recorded. It looks like the average to date is around 88" for Mt. Mansfield coop...and they are around half that on the listed values. Yeah that's exactly it... its been done like that since like 1950 so that's the way it'll continue to be done. And yes, I agree that MWN averages a lot more than their listed snowfall. I know we are getting off topic now with this, but just for curiosity and to illustrate the point, here's last night's and today's snowfall through 1pm at our 3,044ft snow board. This is roughly 1,000ft below the Mansfield co-op's snow cache elevation. I reported 3.7" to the NWS (numbers are above the corresponding line) but its somewhere in that 3.7-3.9" range. The Co-Op hasn't reported in yet, but we'll see what they end up recording. Today wasn't that windy so I would expect they are reasonably close. I take photo evidence most times I clear the board, just in case there's any question. Sorry, back on topic now. I do think we mix and rain next week because its what happens every week, but we'll also pull some snow out of it somehow on the front or back. If that low passes SE of New England or over SNE area, it at least won't be a torch even with that other low waaaay NW into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah that's exactly it... its been done like that since like 1950 so that's the way it'll continue to be done. And yes, I agree that MWN averages a lot more than their listed snowfall. I know we are getting off topic now with this, but just for curiosity and to illustrate the point, here's last night's and today's snowfall through 1pm at our 3,044ft snow board. This is roughly 1,000ft below the Mansfield co-op's snow cache elevation. I reported 3.7" to the NWS (numbers are above the corresponding line) but its somewhere in that 3.7-3.9" range. The Co-Op hasn't reported in yet, but we'll see what they end up recording. Today wasn't that windy so I would expect they are reasonably close. I take photo evidence most times I clear the board, just in case there's any question. This is what I'm talking about...point proven. 3.7" at 3,000ft, 1.0" at 4,000ft. Just different collection methods. A sheltered snow board vs. an 8" rain gauge on the windy summit. DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 630 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.09 12 3 9 1.0 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 ya know...looking at the ncep day 7 map it doesn't look impossible for this to be more east and colder. There is a High north of Maine, although pretty far north and not strong. Another H in sc canada that could perhaps branch over. I'm not saying that is going to happen, but I think a more easterly solution looks possible...doesn't it? Although I do get that this is the sacrifice storm, the one that brings in the new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 My thought is a cold and potentially stormy period of 4-6 days and then we go back into the late January version of the SE Ridge on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 My thought is a cold and potentially stormy period of 4-6 days and then we go back into the late January version of the SE Ridge on roids. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I have seen enough. I believe there will be a 6 week period starting around Jan 20, during this time temperatures across sne will average -2.5 degrees, in addition between 30-65 inches of snow will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 At this latitude, I think if the pattern is lack luster...it's due to the PNA. The ridging into AK seems almost a certain. I think the question is whether or not we remain on the good side of a gradient or not. That's my fear if you will, that I've talked about for a few days. I'd like to see this in a week to see where we are going. We might do just fine, but that's my concern. Other than that, I'll take my chances with this in a heart beat, especially if the euro ensembles are close. Further to the south, I think there is a risk of disappointment..mainly PHL-south, but could extend to NYC. We just don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 At this latitude, I think if the pattern is lack luster...it's due to the PNA. The ridging into AK seems almost a certain. I think the question is whether or not we remain on the good side of a gradient or not. That's my fear if you will, that I've talked about for a few days. I'd like to see this in a week to see where we are going. We might do just fine, but that's my concern. Other than that, I'll take my chances with this in a heart beat, especially if the euro ensembles are close. Further to the south, I think there is a risk of disappointment..mainly PHL-south, but could extend to NYC. We just don't know yet. Probably a dumb question, but is there such thing as being too far north in a gradient pattern to where storms start becoming suppressed ? Or is it, "if your above the battleground you'll be fine" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Old Farmers Almanac says Feb is going to be 7 below average with periods of precip and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.