mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Did you just see powderfreaks picture? I don't give a rats a** about NNE and their snow.. if it was November, then yea, great, get those guys off to a good start.. its wildcard weekend. I could care less if the ski slope bunnies are dissapointed with their precious ski season this year. All I care about is my back yard. 5 minutes until the KING initializes You've sunk so low... The 18Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I could possibly envision a brief pop in the PNA and destruction of teh SE ridge as the pattern gets set up around D10 with a relatively tranqiul period followed by a developing/better gradient pattern. Sort of a mesh of GFS and Euro ens. That may mean we have to wait for storminess once the cold settles in. A -PNA regime like the Euro Ens may mean somewhat unimpressive cold (seasonable to just below) but something a bit more favorable for snow. I could see that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hey we're all in this together. No more inter regional bickering. And has snownh used up his 5 for today yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah...those images look warm to me Steve outside of some mtn top cool spots. Plus you're assuming 850mb would be the warmest layer. It's a moot point anyways since it isn't going to verify. I did not assume anything, their snow maps say it is though. Just reporting what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I did not assume anything, their snow maps say it is though. Just reporting what it shows. Those are weenie algorithms in marginal situations anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 what has a higher correlation to cold temps in the midwest/northeast in the winter...the EPO or the NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LOL, at the regional crap. It's NNE...it always snows there. No sense of being jealous. When you have moist nw winds going over 4000' peaks..it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 what has a higher correlation to cold temps in the midwest/northeast in the winter...the EPO or the NAO? I would think the EPO. Will might know better, but off the top of my head..I think it's the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Raleigh's line graphs of the major indices. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zlinegraphs.html Appears that the EC ensembles have a mean slight -NAO, slight -AO, slight/moderate -EPO, and a solidly -PNA in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would think the EPO. Will might know better, but off the top of my head..I think it's the EPO. Yeah EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 When does the arctic front come thru? It's Thursday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 usedtobe, on 03 January 2012 - 03:07 PM, said: The is the 1st time this season that I've started to get interested in the pattern if the models are right in the re-amplfication of the pattern on day 10. I don't see any snow chances south of 40 before then but think sometime around the 14-16 jan period could be interesting if we get a big storm that tries to put some higher heights over greenland for a few days. The forecast pattern certainly looks a little better than it has and the polar vortex does appear to be weakening. HM There is no doubt about it that the major anomalies in place driving the +AO are reversing mid-month. The first warming in the stratosphere allowed for the Siberian warm anomaly to move into the North Pole (already happening). This feature displaces a PV to 45N/160E which goes on to change the N PAC. The QBO, state of the AAM, solar state and tropical forcing are all switching now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Raleigh's line graphs of the major indices. http://raleighwx.ame...linegraphs.html Appears that the EC ensembles have a mean slight -NAO, slight -AO, slight/moderate -EPO, and a solidly -PNA in the long range. That weak east based -NAO peaked around d9-10 on the EC ens I believe with the ridging breaking down after that through d15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 its all conjecture anyway, lets see what this looks like at 96 hours, barely deadly range, maybe 72 if we are lucky. Yup, It does not matter until we are inside 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Raleigh's line graphs of the major indices. http://raleighwx.ame...linegraphs.html Appears that the EC ensembles have a mean slight -NAO, slight -AO, slight/moderate -EPO, and a solidly -PNA in the long range. The -NAO on the EC ensembles is that North Atlantic ridge that temporarily tries to get some high heights into southern Greenland and the southern Davis straight, but it moves out in the time frame after D10. I would think the EPO would go even more negative on those graphs if we could see D11-15. But either way, clearly you can see the changes already happening inside of D11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Who cares about NNE? They've had snow..It's our turn I care, And we have had no more then you have WOTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Gotta hand it to Sam. He called for a warm start and talked 1993-94 type of pattern. It may happen but a month past his expected date. Still a damned good forecast from months lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Weeklies caved a little. They have some ridging into parts of NRN AK and the North Pole, but cold anomalies in sw Canada give rise to weak ridging in the east. They did weaken those + anomalies by a good amount on week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The -NAO on the EC ensembles is that North Atlantic ridge that temporarily tries to get some high heights into southern Greenland and the southern Davis straight, but it moves out in the time frame after D10. I would think the EPO would go even more negative on those graphs if we could see D11-15. But either way, clearly you can see the changes already happening inside of D11-15. Does it still keep high anomalies over the Iceland area? It looks like it could be some type of weak east based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yup, It does not matter until we are inside 96 hrs I'd be shocked if anyone got significant snow out of that storm. The pattern stinks for it. It might give a few sloppy inches for far NW NE near powerderfreak mountains, but I do not see a huge wet snow bomb...we'd need that ULL to move south of the region in a more easterly fashion and it does not look like the pattern wants to support that...it wants to move more NNE on the east side of that trough in the lakes/midwest. Its far enough out we could always pray for a miracle, but the longwave pattern looks pretty brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I care, And we have had no more then you have WOTY October snows do not count for winter as far as what we've had..only for seasonal totals. You guys have had numerous small events that we haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Weeklies caved a little. They have some ridging into parts of NRN AK and the North Pole, but cold anomalies in sw Canada give rise to weak ridging in the east. They did weaken those + anomalies by a good amount on week 3. We're due for Kevin to tell us week 3 and week 4 are trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 When does the arctic front come thru? It's Thursday right? Bump for an answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Does it still keep high anomalies over the Iceland area? It looks like it could be some type of weak east based -NAO. There's a hint of some ridging near Iceland in the D12-15 range. So we def can't rule that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 October snows do not count for winter as far as what we've had..only for seasonal totals. You guys have had numerous small events that we haven't. If you count 0.1" as numerous small events then yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 If you count 0.1" as numerous small events then yeah. How about Tgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 We're due for Kevin to tell us week 3 and week 4 are trash. They were an improvement. I think that's the first improvement on the weeklies.....in weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Gotta hand it to Sam. He called for a warm start and talked 1993-94 type of pattern. It may happen but a month past his expected date. Still a damned good forecast from months lead time. haha thanks! I still bungled the December forecast pretty horribly. But the stratospheric warming was nearly on schedule, and January is looking decent at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Weeklies caved a little. They have some ridging into parts of NRN AK and the North Pole, but cold anomalies in sw Canada give rise to weak ridging in the east. They did weaken those + anomalies by a good amount on week 3. How are their 2m temps? The reason I ask 2m is because we often are maybe -6 at H85 but damned cold at the surface in gradient overrunning patterns. TYIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 How about Tgiving? Wait...so 10/29 doesn't count, but 11/23 does? November isn't exactly the month when winter is supposed to clench its firm hold on the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.