Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro has a pretty good gradient pattern coming up after day 10 with a tanking -PNA and lows coming out of the central Rockies. That's the pattern I can envision and why I was thinking that a bad placed gradient, and not suppression was more of an issue. Ryan says cold and dry after next week for 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah this is a pretty good run. There is also lots of bagginess offshore and to the south in the isobars. Euro Ens look good. Believe it or not I like the somewhat -PNA look to provide for extra SWFE chances. The GEFS that had some west coast ridging kept the cold locked in but I didn't think were too good for storminess. We should just be glad the Pac has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah this is a pretty good run. There is also lots of bagginess offshore and to the south in the isobars. The AK ridge helps shove the PV a bit south because it extends all the way up to the north pole north of the PV...so its def helping out there. It seems our thinking was reasonable...you can see the big fight going on between the vortex and the ridging between day 5-9 but the ridging completely overwhelms it after that...so the time line of Jan 15-20 is probably going to end up pretty close....the original pattern change shown on the EC ensembles was like Jan 10-12...so it rushed it by about a week when the smoke clears....which is not abnormal at all. Sometimes they rush it by 10 days or more. We haven't reached verification yet, so we'll see when/if it goes to a full blown ridge there. The good news is that it seems as we go through each run, the GEFS and Euro ensembles are getting more robust with it...rather than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Ryan says cold and dry after next week for 7-10 days Said it was a possibility which is what the GEFS show IMO. The Euro Ens is much better. Not as cold but definitely a better looking "gradient" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Said it was a possibility which is what the GEFS show IMO. The Euro Ens is much better. Not as cold but definitely a better looking "gradient" pattern. I have a feeling after next week rainstorm that destroys even Powderfreak's snowpack...that we are tracking a snow event for late next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro Ens look good. Believe it or not I like the somewhat -PNA look to provide for extra SWFE chances. The GEFS that had some west coast ridging kept the cold locked in but I didn't think were too good for storminess. We should just be glad the Pac has changed. Yeah the -PNA if it's just right could be awesome. We obviously don't want the PV to come too far south and we're left with zonal flow, but I can envision something like the EC ensembles. Just hope the gradient is in our favor...that's my question...but lets get it to change first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah the -PNA if it's just right could be awesome. We obviously don't want the PV to come too far south and we're left with zonal flow, but I can envision something like the EC ensembles. Just hope the gradient is in our favor...that's my question...but lets get it to change first. I could possibly envision a brief pop in the PNA and destruction of teh SE ridge as the pattern gets set up around D10 with a relatively tranqiul period followed by a developing/better gradient pattern. Sort of a mesh of GFS and Euro ens. That may mean we have to wait for storminess once the cold settles in. A -PNA regime like the Euro Ens may mean somewhat unimpressive cold (seasonable to just below) but something a bit more favorable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I could possibly envision a brief pop in the PNA and destruction of teh SE ridge as the pattern gets set up around D10 with a relatively tranqiul period followed by a developing/better gradient pattern. Sort of a mesh of GFS and Euro ens. That may mean we have to wait for storminess once the cold settles in. A -PNA regime like the Euro Ens may mean somewhat unimpressive cold (seasonable to just below) but something a bit more favorable for snow. The pattern around D9-10 looks like that...even on the Euro ens since it pops a N ATL ridge and a transient ridge in the Rockies/W Canada...helps temporarily beat down the SE ridge...that is probably our big cold shot for next weekend. Then the pattern goes to more of a gradient after that...but it looks really cold if you are on the north side of it. Hopefully we'll end up on the fun side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro is not as bad for NNE as some said for next week. WAA snows then DS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The pattern around D9-10 looks like that...even on the Euro ens since it pops a N ATL ridge and a transient ridge in the Rockies/W Canada...helps temporarily beat down the SE ridge...that is probably our big cold shot for next weekend. Then the pattern goes to more of a gradient after that...but it looks really cold if you are on the north side of it. Hopefully we'll end up on the fun side. Yeah. I was surprised the 12z GEFS kept the SE ridge so beaten down ... but I think it was more the huge AO flip the GEFS did that helped lower heights to our south. GEFS would have been damn cold D11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro is not as bad for NNE as some said for next week. WAA snows then DS. I don't see that. Maps I'm looking at have 850s solidly above 0c for all of New England outside Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'll take the 12z GFS for next week, please. Thanks. That has elevation blue snow bomb written on it. That would be fantastic before MLK weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I have a feeling after next week rainstorm that destroys even Powderfreak's snowpack...that we are tracking a snow event for late next weekend LOL... not happening. NECN's Tim Kelley today at our snow study area.... just about 4" new in the last 24 hours, 10" last 72 hours, 24" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't see that. Maps I'm looking at have 850s solidly above 0c for all of New England outside Caribou. wunderground must be dead wrong, where is Tip with his Euro MOS for BTV area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I have a feeling after next week rainstorm that destroys even Powderfreak's snowpack...that we are tracking a snow event for late next weekend I agree, The one i mentioned earlier at hr 204 on the euro, Had a low moving along the coast, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 wunderground must be dead wrong, where is Tip with his Euro MOS for BTV area I know its useless at this range, but the point 'n click is leaning towards the snowier side. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't see that. Maps I'm looking at have 850s solidly above 0c for all of New England outside Caribou. congrats vim toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 congrats vim toot! its all conjecture anyway, lets see what this looks like at 96 hours, barely deadly range, maybe 72 if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 wunderground must be dead wrong, where is Tip with his Euro MOS for BTV area WU looks warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I know its useless at this range, but the point 'n click is leaning towards the snowier side. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Taken literally the GFS was mostly ZR/PL in VT with the deeper colder air east into NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LOL... not happening. NECN's Tim Kelley today at our snow study area.... just about 4" new in the last 24 hours, 10" last 72 hours, 24" on the ground. next week will give you the bulletproof crust you need and some upslope power on top of that. Then let the gradient begin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 WU looks warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Something like the Euro Ens with a Miller B scenario would really help NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Who cares about NNE? They've had snow..It's our turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I know its useless at this range, but the point 'n click is leaning towards the snowier side. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. I would be encouraged by this and the trend East that started yesterday if I was in your skis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Something like the Euro Ens with a Miller B scenario would really help NNE Did you just see powderfreaks picture? I don't give a rats a** about NNE and their snow.. if it was November, then yea, great, get those guys off to a good start.. its wildcard weekend. I could care less if the ski slope bunnies are dissapointed with their precious ski season this year. All I care about is my back yard. 5 minutes until the KING initializes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Who cares about NNE? They've had snow..It's our turn I do, we need our source region buried for reasons, and my vacations are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah...those images look warm to me Steve outside of some mtn top cool spots. Plus you're assuming 850mb would be the warmest layer. It's a moot point anyways since it isn't going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Who cares about NNE? They've had snow..It's our turn Don't make me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Did you just see powderfreaks picture? I don't give a rats a** about NNE and their snow.. if it was November, then yea, great, get those guys off to a good start.. its wildcard weekend. I could care less if the ski slope bunnies are dissapointed with their precious ski season this year. All I care about is my back yard. 5 minutes until the KING initializes Nobody cares about MHT either weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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