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Next week's major storm and beyond


OKpowdah

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The three would be the Xmas storm, that didn't happen, and GFS supressed the entire time, this past Sunday's storm that the GFS had supressed and Euro had as a big snowstorm, and then this coming Wednesday storm that the GFS has been 2 steps ahead of the Euro, pending it it ends up tracking further to the east, which models are showing may happen.

Euro had the sunday storm 1 run, The GFS bias are always in play with its surpressed solutions only to have to move back towards the Euro solutions countless times, Inside hr 96, The euro has taken it to task pretty consistantly

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yeah i remember it now that you bring up the event. was pretty good out here as well.

capped off a good month overall.

000FXUS61 KBOX 311027AFDBOXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA525 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008.SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --FAST BUT INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLANDTODAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE REGION...ALONGWITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS CAPE COD ANDNANTUCKET. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AND WINDY WEATHERTONIGHT AND NEW YEARS DAY. WEAKER WINTER STORMS MAY AFFECT THEREGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THENPOSSIBLY MODERATING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --STARTING TO SEE SNOW ON REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR...BUT NOT MUCHREACHING THE GROUND YET WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ANDLOWER TEENS. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SNOW TO START...BUT SHOULDBEGIN BY AROUND 7 AM OR SO OVER THE CT VALLEY INTO SW NH...THEN WILLQUICKLY DEVELOP EASTWARD.LOW PRES OVER W PA AT 09Z WILL TRANSFER ENERGY S OF LONG ISLAND THISMORNING. AS ENERGY TRANSFERS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE QUICKLYDEVELOPS...WILL SEE SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST AREAS BY MIDMORNING.00Z OP MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW BURST OF 1-2 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALLRATES ACROSS MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING WITH EXPLOSIVE LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AROUND MIDDAY. MODELSSUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE UPWARDS TO AN 18 MB/6 HR PRES FALL SOF NANTUCKET AROUND 18Z! MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXCELLENT SNOWGROWTH REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ALONG WITH RAPIDLYINCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN FEEDING INTO THE COLD AIRMASS OVERTHE REGION. NAM 12KM RUN ALSO SHOWED SNOW BANDS NICELY THROUGHMID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND CAPE ANN THROUGH WORCESTER TO SE MAAND LOWER CAPE COD. SREF PROBS FOR >8 INCHES OF SNOW NOW SHOWING UPFOR EASTERN AREAS...WITH 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF >4 INCHES ON THE 21ZRUN.WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSSCENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME...AS WELL AS SNOW FALLINGHEAVILY AT TIMES.WITH A BIT OF A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MAX QPF CONSIDERING THE TRACKOF THE STRENGTHENING LOW...HAVE INCLUDED CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGHCOUNTIES IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING. FEEL THEY WILL ALSO SEE THEIRFAIR SHARE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THEY WILL SEE HIGHERRAIN/SNOW RATIO ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 OR HIGHER.WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW AS ITEXITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED GUSTS UP TO 50-55KT. MODELS SUGGESTING GUSTS MAY APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE. HAVEISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHASVINEYARD DUE TO THESE HIGH WINDS. MAY ALSO HAVE PROBLEMS WITHBLOWING SNOW ACROSS CAPE ANN DOWN TO THE CAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOONINTO TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE.

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nice, widespread 6-10 with high winds

http://www.erh.noaa....2008_BOXPNS.txt

There was a 4 alarm fire in Savin Hill that day. I got some nice pictures of the firefighters in the snow fighting it while it was really coming down. If you remember, I believe the day before there was another light snow event.

I took many pictures 08-09 and then stopped because summer was so boring and I never started again.

Perkins Sq South Boston, Lunch time

48d7f2824.jpg

Firefighters in Savin Hill Late morning

4859f5134.jpg

Day after the storm at the Yacht club

c86edb5ed.jpg

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If nothing else, we are no getting into sacred territory regarding how badly this winter has sucked....I find that in and of itself, perversely fascinating.

+1

Week of 1/16 will feature some accumulating snow. If not, futility record will be pursued. By 1/20, we're in the 6th inning, the pitcher still has a no no but he just walked the #9 hitter with no one out. Let's see what can be accomplished.

+1

Just biding my time... you'll recall my sentiment as far back as mid-December: unless we see blockbusters coming our way, I'm much more fascinated by a once-in-a-lifetime chance at a wall-to-wall shutout than a couple nickel/dimes...

Jan 5 2012. Top of the 5th. No hitter in progress.

1936-37 or bust.

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The three would be the Xmas storm, that didn't happen, and GFS supressed the entire time, this past Sunday's storm that the GFS had supressed and Euro had as a big snowstorm, and then this coming Wednesday storm that the GFS has been 2 steps ahead of the Euro, pending it it ends up tracking further to the east, which models are showing may happen.

I'll give you 2. Next week is a long way off still and we've learned about assumptions. Unless they are all the same, if the Euro comes up with a solitary solution within 5 days, weigh it heavily.

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I'll give you 2. Next week is a long way off still and we've learned about assumptions. Unless they are all the same, if the Euro comes up with a solitary solution within 5 days, weigh it heavily.

If we are inside 120 hours, I def weigh the Euro a lot more heavily than the GFS...if its more like 132-144-156 type range, then I don't take any threat seriously at that point.

GFS def seemed to win with the whiff SE on this last one, though the Euro never really showed it inside of 120 hours. The GFS also was more accurate with the warmer 12/23 solution. However, it got completely and utterly schooled by the Euro inside of 96 hours on the 12/27 storm and then again on the 12/31 storm.

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Dude, come on..I'm black..I don't ski. I'll leave putting two planks on my feet and sliding down a big ass hill to yall.

I'm going purely to chase snow.

Next week may be shot man. I think it may be liquid for many. You may get a little upslope Sunday and Monday, but the next storm may be liquid for many. Maybe Friday when it turns cold, you'll get more upslope there.

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Ridging is going pretty crazy in the EPO region on the ensembles...the -PNA is what will keep all the arctic air from flooding far south into the CONUS, but that is a really cold pattern for the northern tier of the plains to N Rockies and hopefully we manage a piece of it over here.

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Ridging is going pretty crazy in the EPO region on the ensembles...the -PNA is what will keep all the arctic air from flooding far south into the CONUS, but that is a really cold pattern for the northern tier of the plains to N Rockies and hopefully we manage a piece of it over here.

I'd take that and run.

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I like how the PV slowly sinks south on the ensembles almost into N Hudson Bay...its in the long range after D11, so can't really say much about it...but if that happened, that would be very January 1994-esque

Damn it...I don't have an extra pair of pants here!

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I like how the PV slowly sinks south on the ensembles almost into N Hudson Bay...its in the long range after D11, so can't really say much about it...but if that happened, that would be very January 1994-esque

Yeah this is a pretty good run. There is also lots of bagginess offshore and to the south in the isobars.

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It's a pant tent run...even a sign of ridging trying to weakly form near se Greenland..just helping to keep the PV in place. It's far out there, but a good run regardless. Maybe 00z backs off a bit, but it is nice to see the GEFS and EC agree on the main features. Details TBD...lets see this in a week.

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